Remittances of labor migrants to Ukraine will fall by 20% in 2020 – NBU
The volume of remittances of labor migrants to Ukraine in 2020 will decrease by 20%, or by $2.5 billion, to $10 billion, subject to most of the restrictions being removed before the end of the second quarter, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts in an updated inflation report.
According to the forecast, the volume of remittances in the second quarter will decrease by 61% compared to the same period in 2019, including due to the loss of work and structural changes by 39%, the reduction in the number of migrants by 14%, the level of salaries by 8%. In the third quarter, the level of remittances is projected to decrease by 13%, including due to job loss and structural changes by 7%, due to a reduction in the number of migrants by 3%, wages by up to 3%.
At the same time, the NBU predicts an increase in the volume of remittances in the fourth quarter by 4% due to an increase in the number of jobs.
The regulator notes that the volume of remittances of labor migrants will depend on the extent of the decline in economic activity in other countries, which will be uneven in activities. In this regard, the incomes of labor migrants working in hotel and restaurant business, cultural and art institutions, and education will suffer most.