Experts worsen forecast of Ukraine's GDP growth for 2019 to 2.9%
Ukraine's GDP growth in 2019 will slow to 2.9% from 3.1% this year with the decline in inflation (December on December) from 10.1% to 8%, according to a renewed consensus forecast published by the Economic Development and Trade Ministry on Tuesday.
According to the document, in 2020-2021, the growth of the Ukrainian economy will accelerate, respectively, to 3.1% and 3.9%,
In September 2018, experts expected the country's GDP to increase by 3.1% in 2018 with inflation of 9.5%, and in 2019, by 3% with inflation of 7.4%.
Economic growth forecast for 2020-2021 remained unchanged, but the inflation rate over the past three months increased by 0.9-1 percentage points, to 6.9% and 6% respectively.
Analysts polled by the Economic Development and Trade Ministry also expect the hryvnia exchange rate to decline to UAH 29.05/$1 by the end of this year, by the end of the next year - to UAH 30.42/$1, which is better than the September estimates - respectively UAH 29.6/$1 and UAH 30.60/$1. According to their estimates, a slight devaluation of the national currency will continue in the next two years: up to UAH 32/$1 at the end of 2020, UAH 33.80/$ 1 - at the end of 2021.
The minimum and maximum exchange rate estimates for 2019 are UAH 29.40/$1 and UAH 33/$1, respectively, for 2020 - UAH 30.20/$ 1 and UAH 37/$1, for 2021 - UAH 30.70/$1 and UAH 40/$1.