S&P anticipates hryvnia to weaken to UAH 30/$1 in 2019
The hryvnia exchange rate to the U.S. dollar in 2016 will decrease from UAH 24.03/$1 to UAH 26/$1, S&P Global Ratings has said in its Friday report affirming its 'B-/B' long- and short-term local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on Ukraine.
According to the report, S&P expects that the Ukrainian national currency would weaken to the U.S. dollar in next years: to UAH 27.50/$1 as of late 2017, UAH 29/$1 as of late 2018 and UAH 30/$1 as of late 2019.
S&P predicts that the deficit of current account of Ukraine's balance of payment would increase from 0.2% of GDP last year to 1.5 of GDP this year, to 1.9% of GDP in 2017 and to 2.4-2.5% of GDP in 2018 and 2019.
Ukraine's economic growth would gradually accelerate with slowing inflation: GDP will add 1% this year with annual inflation of 14%, next year – 2% and 12% respectively, 2018 – 2.5% and 10% and 2019 – 2.5% and 9%, while the Ukrainian government would like to accelerate growth to 3% next year with inflation of 8%.
S&P said that with small growth and large foreign debt Ukraine remains dependable on the cheap foreign official financing. The country's gross state debt in 2016 would narrow from 79.4% of GDP to 75.4% of GDP, in 2017 – to 72.9% of GDP and in 2018 – to 71.5% of GDP.
By 2019 when the first term of paying the restructured debt comes due, the indicator will be 69.9% of GDP.