Business expectations deteriorate for third consecutive quarter in Q4 2025 – Ukraine's National Bank survey

The Business Expectations Index (BEI) of enterprises declined for the third consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025, to 102.1% from 102.5% in the third quarter, 103.1% in the second quarter, and 108.2% in the first quarter. At the same time, the index remained above the level recorded in the same period of 2024, at 101.8%, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported following its business survey.

"Businesses maintained a positive sentiment regarding their own operations despite wartime risks, but assessed development prospects more cautiously. Surveyed executives expect moderate growth in production and investment, while reducing pessimism regarding employment," the regulator said in a press release.

Hostilities and their consequences remain the main factor limiting companies' ability to increase production. Respondents also pointed to the growing impact of high energy prices, limited production capacity, and a shortage of skilled labor.

According to the published data, businesses assessed future production volumes of goods and services in Ukraine over the next 12 months more cautiously: the balance of responses in the fourth quarter of 2025 stood at -1.8%, compared with -6.1% in the third quarter.

As clarified by the NBU, respondents in eight regions expected an increase in production volumes. The highest expectations were recorded among energy and water supply enterprises, large companies, and those operating exclusively in the domestic market. The lowest expectations were among trade enterprises, small businesses, and companies engaged solely in export operations.

According to the survey results, businesses' inflation expectations improved: in the fourth quarter, expected annual inflation over the next 12 months stood at 11.1%, compared with 11.4% in the previous quarter. The share of respondents expecting inflation to exceed 15.0% fell by 4.8 percentage points, to 17.9%.

As before, the most significant pro-inflationary factor was hostilities, cited by 83.4% of respondents. Businesses also expected a substantial impact from production costs and the exchange rate factor. At the same time, for the first time in the past five quarters, expectations regarding price growth in global markets weakened, and for the third consecutive quarter, expectations regarding the impact of tax changes also eased.

Exchange rate expectations strengthened slightly, to UAH 44.27 per $1 from UAH 44.11 per $1 in the third quarter.

Assessments of the current financial and economic condition of enterprises remained restrained and deteriorated slightly: the balance of responses in the fourth quarter stood at -5.8%, compared with -5.3% a quarter earlier. At the same time, respondents continued to positively assess changes in the financial and economic condition of their own enterprises over the next 12 months, with the balance of responses at 0.8% compared with 1.7% in the previous survey.

According to respondents' answers, businesses expected sales volumes to increase over the next 12 months, albeit at a somewhat slower pace, particularly in foreign markets: the balances of responses stood at 9.6% and 11.7%, respectively (compared with 11.0% and 16.1% in the third quarter).

Expectations regarding investment spending on machinery, equipment, and inventory improved, with the balance of responses rising to 7.0% from 4.3% in the third quarter. At the same time, survey participants assessed investment spending on construction work cautiously, with the balance of responses at -2.9% compared with 0.0% in the previous survey.

Enterprises attracting foreign investment maintained expectations of growth in its volumes over the next 12 months, but the balance of responses declined to 15.5% from 18.7% in the third quarter. The share of respondents planning to attract foreign investment fell to 21.5% from 23.3% a quarter earlier.

Expectations regarding future employment became less pessimistic: the balance of responses in the fourth quarter of 2025 stood at -3.8% compared with -4.4% in the third quarter.

According to the NBU, the need for borrowed funds in the near term decreased slightly, to 31.7% of respondents from 32.8% in the third quarter. At the same time, the share of respondents planning to take out bank loans increased to 35.8% from 33.3%.

As before, businesses prefer loans in the national currency: 80.9% compared with 78.8% in the previous quarter. The most significant obstacle to attracting new loans remains high interest rates, cited in 43.9% of responses. At the same time, according to the regulator, the impact of excessive collateral requirements weakened noticeably, to 26.5% (down 3.3 percentage points).

The balance of assessments of the strictness of access to bank credit conditions declined to 11.6% from 12.4% in the third quarter. The share of companies planning to raise funds abroad stood at 7.1% compared with 6.8% in the previous survey. The share of respondents reporting the availability of other sources of financing increased to 42.4% from 41.6%.

The quarterly survey was conducted from November 3 to November 28, 2025, and included 663 enterprises from 21 regions of the country.

Among respondents, 21.1% were trade companies, 19.0% manufacturing, 14.3% agriculture, 13.9% transport and communications, 6.0% extractive industries, 4.8% energy and water supply, 3.3% construction, while 17.5% represented other types of activity. By company size, 31.4% of respondents were large enterprises, 36.7% medium-sized, and 32.0% small.