Ukraine's National Bank FX interventions decline by 26.5% last week, hryvnia strengthens
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its U.S. dollar sales on the interbank market by $311.2 million, or 26.5%, to $862.6 million, according to data published on the regulator’s website.
According to the data, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of foreign currency purchases and sales by legal entities declined to $109.1 million from $148.6 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $436.5 million.
In the retail cash foreign exchange market, from Saturday through Thursday, the negative balance decreased to $26 million from $28.3 million the previous week, while purchases of cash foreign currency exceeded sales on all days.
The official hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, which started last week at UAH 42.2481 per $1, strengthened over three days to UAH 42.1541 per $1, and by the end of the week to UAH 41.9331 per $1.
In the cash market, the dollar exchange rate followed the official trajectory during the past week. Overall, the dollar buying rate fell by nearly 22 kopiikas to UAH 41.79 per $1, while the selling rate dropped by 14 kopiikas to UAH 42.21 per $1.
Analysts at KYT Group, a major participant in the cash currency exchange market (Liberty Finance LLC), said that December proved to be a favorable month for Ukraine, as the country received multibillion-euro inflows from partners. In particular, in the third decade of the month, the state budget received EUR 2.3 billion under the Ukraine Facility, and an EU loan of EUR 90 billion for 2026–2027 was also agreed, helping maintain macroeconomic stability.
In the short term (1–2 weeks), KYT Group expects the hryvnia to fluctuate in the baseline range of UAH 42.15–42.55 per $1, while in the medium term (2–3 months), within UAH 42.30–43.50 per $1.
"On the international market, dollar weakening will be influenced by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, further steps toward cutting the key interest rate. In Ukraine, the hryvnia will be affected by factors such as the state budget deficit, the situation on the front line, gas purchases, imports of energy equipment, and new inflows of assistance from partners," the company’s experts said.
In their view, over the long term (six months or more), a depreciation trend will remain dominant, but ongoing NBU interventions will help ensure smoother exchange rate fluctuations and flexibility in the exchange rate trajectory. As a result, the benchmark for the first half of 2026 is projected at UAH 42.6–44.60 per $1.
