14:08 21.02.2024

Vast majority of Ukrainians believe in Ukraine's victory in the war – survey

3 min read
Vast majority of Ukrainians believe in Ukraine's victory in the war – survey

The majority of Ukrainians, 85%, believe in Ukraine's victory in the war with the Russian Federation (from 78% of residents of the East of the country to 88.5% of residents of the Western region). 8.5% do not believe in victory (from 5.5% in the West to 13% in the East of the country), according to the results of a survey conducted by the sociological service of the Razumkov Center and presented at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine.

"Compared to previous surveys, the expected timing of victory is becoming more distant. Thus, according to the latest survey, among those who believe in victory, 20% believe that it will take place before the end of this year, while in February-March 2023, 50% believed that that victory will come by the end of 2023. 40% believe that it will come in 1-2 years (in February-March 2023 - 26%). That this will take from 3 to 5 years – 14% and 7%, respectively, more five years – 3% and 1%, respectively, that victory is "unlikely to happen in my lifetime" – 1% and 0.4%, respectively. There are also more people who do not know when exactly victory can be expected (22% and 15%, respectively)," according to the report on the results of the survey.

Regarding what can be considered a victory, the relative majority (38%) of those who believe in victory answer that the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and the restoration of the borders as of January 2014 can be considered a victory. Another 27% will consider the destruction of the Russian army and the promotion of uprising/disintegration within Russia a victory. 13% would consider the restoration of the status quo as of February 23, 2022, a victory, 7% would consider the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine, except occupied Crimea, and 4% would consider the end of the war, even if the Russian army remains in the territories captured as a result of full-scale invasion (after February 24, 2022).

The survey was conducted from January 19 to January 25, 2024, as part of the ENGAGE Enhance Non-Governmental Actors and Grassroots Engagement activity funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact in Ukraine. The survey was conducted using the face-to-face method in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovograd, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytsky, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi regions and the city of Kyiv (in Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Kherson regions – only in those territories controlled by the Ukrainian government and in which hostilities are not taking place).

The survey was conducted using a stratified multi-stage sample using random sampling at the first stages of sampling and a quota method for selecting respondents at the final stage (when respondents were selected according to gender and age quotas). The structure of the sample population reproduces the demographic structure of the adult population of the territories where the survey was conducted as of the beginning of 2022 (by age, gender, type of settlement).

A total of 2,000 respondents aged 18 years and older were surveyed. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%. At the same time, additional systematic deviations in the sample may be due to the consequences of Russian aggression, in particular, the forced evacuation of millions of citizens.

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