Ukraine's national interests and U.S. external interests coincide, but situation may change
Ukraine can count on political support from the United States with the new U.S. leadership, but there should not be any special illusions, Director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies and adviser to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Horbulin has said.
"Will Volker [United States Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker] be able to "reset" U.S. policy in the Ukrainian direction? He makes a strong impression. It is obvious that he has an absolutely clear and realistic understanding of what is happening in Ukraine. It is the fact that he knows what steps should be taken to solve the situation. But the current political reality in the United States is more like the sandbox of the Greek goddess Eris than the unconventional model with the "one vote" policy, including in foreign policy," the article of Horbulin titled "Geopolitical reversion: "the new 80's," published in the weekly 'Mirror of the Week. Ukraine,' says.
According to the expert, such problems are connected with the issue of granting Ukraine lethal defensive weapons. "And if Obama [previous U.S. President Barack Obama] took a clear position "promise to think over, but in no case not to provide with," then now ... when Trump is still in search of solutions (including for Ukrainian situation), a corridor of opportunities for such assistance has considerably expanded. But even if such assistance is provided (it would be really important for us in military terms), the main result would be more political," he said.
Horbulin believes that for Ukraine the provision of military assistance from the U.S. is "primarily a symbol of the fact that the U.S. is actively involved in Ukrainian affairs, a symbol of filling the Charter on strategic partnership and a sign to European countries that it's time to move on to active action."
At the same time, he believes, the issue of lethal weapons in Ukraine "resembles a magical spell considered by many as a panacea for all Ukrainian problems," while the lion's share of these problems is in a different field - "the effective management of the national security sector, the fight against corruption, effective reforms and economic growth."
The expert calls to remember the important aspect of the U.S.-Ukraine relations, pointing out that now "the national interests of Ukraine and the U.S. foreign policy interests coincide." "However, this does not mean that they will always be the same, or that decisions that are good for U.S. foreign policy will prove equally good for the national interests of our country," he said.
Analyzing the situation with the new U.S. sanctions against Russia, Horbulin said that they are "very serious and will lead to a gradual systemic collapse of the current Russian economic model." In addition, according to him, Ukrainian sanctions (in terms of breaking the cooperation in the military-industrial complex) are also hard for Russia. "According to SIPRI, Russia has still not managed to establish at least 185 unique parts and components produced by Ukrainian enterprises," he said.