10:49 04.02.2025

Invaders slow advance in Jan despite maintaining casualty rate – ISW

2 min read
Invaders slow advance in Jan despite maintaining casualty rate – ISW

Russian occupation forces continued to suffer significant losses in January 2025, despite a slower pace of advance compared to previous months in late 2024, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in a report on February 3.

"Russian forces gained roughly 498 square kilometers in January in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, or roughly 16.1 square kilometers per day. The available figures suggest Russian forces suffered roughly 96 casualties per square kilometer of territory seized... Russian forces gained a total of 593 square kilometers in December 2024... Coupled with a similar monthly casualty rate, indicates that Russian forces are taking the same high level of losses despite achieving fewer territorial advances in the near term," analysts report.

ISW previously estimated that the Russian military command likely suffered record levels of personnel losses from September 2024 to November 2024 in order to achieve major territorial gains. "It remains unclear whether the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces' rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces are advancing on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk," ISW reported.

Ukrainian forces are reported to be continuing to innovate in drone operations to maintain their technological advantage over Russia and achieve battlefield effect, and on the night of February 2-3, they carried out drone strikes on Russian oil and gas infrastructure in Volgograd and Astrakhan regions.

"Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Borova, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and in the Dnipro direction," ISW reported.

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