Ukrainian developers predict a moderate increase in demand for housing in 2023 - within 15% due to the expansion of mortgage programs and a request for the restoration of de-occupied regions, but the main factor will be the success of the defense forces at the front.

"Under the current conditions, real demand can only be stimulated by affordable lending (from 0% to 3%) or count on an increase in citizens' incomes by at least 20%. In my opinion, in the best case, in 2023, demand for new buildings can grow by only 15% compared to 2022, but it will be more than 60-70% less than in August-October 2021," predicts co-founder and managing partner of INSPI Development Volodymyr Sementsov.

According to him, the primary catalysts for demand will be victory in the war, the security of life, guarantees of safe investments in new buildings.

"The economic growth that will begin after the victory, including through funding from international donors and private companies for the restoration of Ukrainian cities, will contribute to an increase in demand from both professional investors and Ukrainians who lost their homes due to the war and will receive certificates from the state for the purchase of a new one," says Andriy Vavrysh, the owner of Saga Development.

The growth in demand for housing will also lead to an increase in prices, says Hanna Layevska, the commercial director of Intergal-Bud.

"If, under the conditions of low-paying demand, developers hold back the cost, then as soon as interest in real transactions grows, prices will creep up. The rise in price will be gradual - within 10% per year," she said.

In addition, the scaling of the eОselia mortgage program to a wider circle of the population, as well as accreditation of unfinished construction projects for participation, will increase the demand for new housing.

"Next year, eOselia should scale up and cover a wider range of citizens. Therefore, we expect that this will lead to a significant demand for real estate. Now 78% of transactions for eOselia concern the secondary market, since there are not so many offers of finished new housing. However, the precedent when an unfinished object is accredited for participation will encourage buyers to pay more attention to new buildings," Layevska believes.