Finance Minister expects drop of Ukraine's GDP in 2022 by approximately 33-35%
The fall in Ukraine's GDP in 2022 could be 33-35%, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said at a briefing in Kyiv on Monday.
"Somewhere our estimates coincide with the estimates of international partners. Approximately, the loss of gross domestic product will be 33-35%," he said.
According to Marchenko, in absolute terms, this is more than UAH 1 trillion.
As reported, after a better-than-expected third quarter, the Ministry of Economy spoke about the possibility of improving the forecast for a fall in GDP in 2022 from 33.2% to about 30%. However, then at the end of October, while finalizing the draft state budget for the second reading, this figure was improved only to 32%.
"Given the recent estimate of GDP by the State Statistics Service (a drop in real GDP in the first quarter by 15.1%, in the second - by 37.2%) and an estimate of a fall in GDP by 35% in the third quarter and by 37% in the fourth quarter, the annual forecast for a fall in real GDP in 2022 was adjusted to 32%," the government noted in an explanatory note.
In addition, the GDP growth forecast for 2023 was downgraded from 4.6% to 3.2%.
In mid-October, the National Bank of Ukraine improved its assessment of the economic recession this year from 33.4% to 31.5%, but at the same time worsened its forecast for GDP growth next year from 5.5% to 4%.
