Ukrainian business restored production volumes in September, the share of enterprises operating with the same capacity utilization as before February 24, 2022 increased, but uncertainty remains in the long term, these are the results of the fifth monthly survey of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.

"We record a significant improvement in business expectations, assessments of the economic situation and the business climate after a significant drop in August. In September, we recorded such an increase in optimism," Oksana Kuziakiv, executive director at IER, said during an online presentation "Economic trends from a business point of view."

According to the study, the share of "pessimists" regarding the general economic situation in the country significantly decreased – from 22.6% in August to 14.0% in September, while 27.4% of respondents are optimistic about the situation (22.3% in August). The share of enterprises that do not expect any changes also increased – from 55.1% in August to 58.6% in September.

Most likely, such changes are associated with an improvement in the situation with demand, as a rate of decline in sales and new orders decreased and a decrease in negative assessments of government policy by 6%, the authors of the survey indicated.

Micro-enterprises were reportedly the slowest to reopen compared to small and large ones. At the same time, such enterprises significantly improved their expectations of changes in the financial and economic situation.

"In August, the expectations of micro-enterprises were pessimistic. In September, this situation changed, and micro-enterprises began to expect positive changes in the financial and economic situation for the future more than the average enterprises of other sizes," IER Senior Researcher Iryna Fedets said.

At the same time, businesses are cautious in their forecasts for an increase in the number of employees: business leaders do not expect an increase in employment, but they are less likely to predict a decrease in the number of employees.

"The decline in employment rate significantly decreased. Businesses don't want layoffs, but they can't hire new staff. The business does not feel either a lack of skilled workers or such a great need for them," explained Oksana Kuziakiv, executive director at IER.

According to the results of the study, the index of obstacles in finding qualified workers has a positive value, which increased from 0.06 to 0.09, and the index of obstacles in finding unskilled workers, where the value is negative, remained unchanged and amounted to -0.07.

Businesses traditionally named the rise in prices for raw materials and materials (63%), difficulties with the transportation of raw materials or goods across Ukraine (41%) and the lack of working capital (37%) as the biggest obstacles. The business also added a "new" obstacle – a break in supply chains: it immediately took the 4th position, it was noted by 31%.

"Importantly, the percentage of respondents who chose lack of fuel and security as obstacles was the lowest in all five surveys we conducted. It means that the business adapts to the conditions of the environment and feels safer," the IER expert said.

The survey results also showed that export activity continues to resume and there is growing optimism among exporters about the future, but the number of companies that want to start exporting for the first time decreased from 7% in May to 2% in September.

The situation is better in the woodworking industry, where again (as in July) there are no enterprises that stopped exporting and could not restore it, and the resumption of exports in the chemical industry and metallurgy also intensified.

The worst situation with exports is in mechanical engineering: 26% of respondents did not resume exports.

The main problems for exporters in September were queues at the western borders of Ukraine (60%), the impossibility of exporting by sea (44%) and complex customs formalities (40%).

The survey involved 521 enterprises located in 21 regions of Ukraine. The survey was conducted from September 8 to September 22, 2022.