Pandemic to affect further economic growth, in 2022 it may reach 2.8% – Mylovanov
The pandemic will affect further economic growth and in 2022 it could reach 2.8%, advisor to the head of the President's Office Tymofiy Mylovanov has said.
"Due to the fall in investment last year, we will have a negative effect on GDP and GDP growth in 2022 will be 2.8%, and then it will resume being 4%," Mylovanov said during a discussion at the Ukraine 30 forum on Thursday.
As Mylovanov told Interfax-Ukraine, the forecast of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) presented to President's Office expects the economy to grow by 5.1% in 2021 and by 4% in 2023.
According to him, inflation this year is expected at 7.3%, in 2022 and 2023 – 5.4% and 5%, respectively. At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate at the end of 2020 is projected at the level of UAH 29.40/$1, at the end of 2022 – UAH 30.20/$1, 2023 – UAH 31/$1.
As expected in the President's Office, the average key policy rate of the National Bank this year will be 6.6% per annum, 6.9% next year and 7.2% in 2023.
Mylovanov said that the state will try to level the situation with the help of fiscal and macroeconomic incentives.
"We should expect certain decisions – a softer monetary policy," he said.