14:56 10.12.2020

NBU preliminarily estimates losses of Ukraine's GDP from tightened quarantine in Jan 2021 at 0.2%

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NBU preliminarily estimates losses of Ukraine's GDP from tightened quarantine in Jan 2021 at 0.2%

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) preliminarily estimates the loss of Ukraine's GDP from the enhanced quarantine in January 2021 at 0.2%, Deputy NBU Governor Dmytro Sologub has said.

"We estimate that the new restrictions will lead to losses of about 0.2% of GDP next year," he said during a press briefing on Thursday.

Commenting on the impact of the "weekend quarantine," which was in effect for six days off in November, Sologub noted that its impact is likely to be lower than previously expected by the National Bank.

"We were expecting an impact of approximately up to 0.2 percentage points on GDP. We can say that, most likely, it will be smaller," Sologub said.

He expressed opinion that the main impact is not so much the restrictions themselves during the quarantine period, but the deterioration of business expectations.

"Business, people did not really understand exactly the way the quarantine would be introduced," Sologub said.

The Ministry of Economy this week has assessed the negative impact of the weekend quarantine on the dynamics of the economy at 0.04-0.06 percentage points in annual terms, slightly lowering the forecast for a decline in Ukraine's GDP as a whole over 2020 from 4.8% to 5%.

The National Bank previously expected the economy to contract by 6% this year, but towards the end of the year it improved its estimates to about 5%, predicting a 4.2% recovery in 2021. The updated macro forecast of the NBU will be announced on January 21.

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