IMF improves assessment of Ukraine's GDP fall in 2020 to 7.2%, growth to 3% in 2021
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its assessment of the decline of Ukraine's GDP in 2020 to 7.2% from 8.2% in the June forecast.
According to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the IMF released on Tuesday, the expectations of the Ukrainian economy growth in the next year were also improved – from 1.1% to 3%, and in 2025 the IMF predicts that Ukraine's GDP will grow by 4%.
According to the WEO, the estimate of average annual inflation in Ukraine in 2020 has been lowered from 4.5% to 3.2%, and in the next year – from 7.2% to 5%. Inflation, according to the document, this year will be 5.2%, and next year will increase to 5.8%.
According to new estimates, the current account deficit of 2.7% of GDP this year could be replaced by a surplus of 4.3% of GDP, returning to a deficit of 3.4% of GDP next year, while in June the IMF expected a deficit of 1.7% of GDP this year, and 2% of GDP next year.
The IMF has also improved estimates of the unemployment rate for Ukraine. If in June the IMF estimated that this year it will increase from 8.5% to 12.6%, and next year it will decrease to 12%, now the forecast for the unemployment rate for this year is 11%, for the next it is 9.6%.