NBU changes forecast monetary base growth in 2020 to 6.1%, for money supply to 10.1%
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) lowered its forecast for monetary base growth in Ukraine in 2020 to 6.1% from 6.5% and raised its estimate of money supply growth to 10.1% from 8.9%, according to the NBU's inflationary report.
According to the report, in the first quarter these indicators are expected to decline by 4.1% and 1.5% respectively, while the main growth is expected in the fourth quarter: 6.1% and 10.1% respectively.
In the second quarter of this year, the NBU expects a stable monetary base with an increase of a mere 0.2% in the third quarter, while money supply in these quarters, according to the regulator, will rise by 2.3% and 4.5% respectively.
For 2021, the central bank also lowered its forecast for the growth of monetary base to 6.1% from 6.3%, increasing the estimate for the rise of money supply to 9.5% from 9.2%. The quarterly dynamics will be the same as in the current year.
According to the report, the central bank expects that in 2022 monetary base will increase by 5.6%, money stock by 9.4%.
As reported, in 2019 monetary base grew by 9.6%, to UAH 477.49 billion, money supply by 12.3%, to UAH 1.435 trillion.