14:26 29.12.2015

Average hryvnia exchange rate of UAH 24.10/$1 realistic, but exposed to many risks

2 min read
Average hryvnia exchange rate of UAH 24.10/$1 realistic, but exposed to many risks

Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valeriya Gontareva has said that there are many risks that could hinder the realization of the average annual forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate of UAH 24.10/$1 outlined by the Finance Ministry of Ukraine in the 2016 national budget and earlier calculated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"For its part, the NBU believes that the forecast is realistic, but the bank understands the risks that could hinder this," she said at a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday.

Gontareva said that this concerns internal and external factors that are beyond the monetary policy control and that could affect the hryvnia exchange rate and inflation.

She said that among these risks is the worsening of the situation on the global markets, especially, the continuation of the fall in steel and grain prices. She said that the balancing of demand and supply on these market is very slow.

The NBU head also pointed at the cycle of increasing rates by the Federal Reserve System (FRS), which creates pressure on currencies of developing countries and difficulties with borrowing.

"There is a risk of gradual depletion of advantages of Ukrainian exporters, particularly, metal exporters," she said.

She said that this concerns only possible risks that could be balanced by positive factors, in particular, the fall in the prices of oil and other energy, inflow of investment thanks to the resumption of economic growth in Ukraine.

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