Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of May 10th
Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation
Information Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of the past day of May 10th, based on an analysis of open sources.
The first review was published on February 26th. All experts of the Information Defence of Ukraine project work free of charge, on a volunteer basis. We need your help.
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1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine heroically restrain the enemy’s attacks in the decisive battle for the Donbas.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the Kharkiv region, the Defence Forces of Ukraine liberated the settlements of Cherkaski Tyshky, Ruski Tyshky, Rubizhne and Bairak. In general, the Ukrainian defenders liberated 1,003 settlements of our country from the occupiers.
The enemy is increasing the pace of strategic offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone. Exercises fire along the entire line of contact and in the depths of the defence of Ukrainian troops.
The enemy did not carry out active offensive operations in the Slobozhanskyi direction. The enemies continue to take measures to regroup their units.
In order to prevent the advance of the units of the Defence Forces of Ukraine and to strengthen their troops, the enemy additionally moved up to five hundred mobilised people from the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to the territory of the Kharkiv region.
In the Izium direction, the enemy continued to create favourable conditions for the offensive attack, for which the enemy replenished ammunition and logistics, conducted engineering equipment of advanced positions and strengthened air reconnaissance.
In the Severodonetsk direction, the enemy carries out assault operations in the areas of the settlements of Nizhnie, Toshkivka, Orikhove, in the Luhansk region, without any success.
The enemy is trying to gain a foothold in the area of the settlement of Oleksandrivka, the enemy is carrying out assault operations in the area of the settlement of Shandryholove, in the Donetsk region, without any success.
In Bilohorivka, the "cleansing of the territory" continues, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed the pontoons and military equipment of russian troops, some of the invaders fled back to swim.
In the Donetsk direction, the occupiers attempted assault operations in the directions of Mar’inka, the settlements of Kamianka, the Yasynuvata district, and Novomykhailivka, the Pokrovskyi district, in the Donetsk region. The enemy was unsuccessful.
In Mariupol, the enemies continues to focus their efforts on blocking and destroying the Ukrainian units near the Azovstal plant. With the support of artillery and tank fire, the enemy conducts assault operations.
The National Guard says that all of Ukraine's leaders are now working on how to evacuate civilians and rescue military combatants who were defending the Azovstal plant in occupied Mariupol.
The deputy commander of the Azov Regiment, Captain Sviatoslav Palamar, known as Kalyna, told Ukrayinska Pravda that russian shelling of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol had resulted in severe injuries. For a while, the defenders lost contact with the hospital.
The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to April 10 were approximately: 26,000 combatants (+350) were eliminated, tanks - 1,170 (+25) units, armoured combat vehicles - 2,808 (+44) units, artillery systems - 519 (+6) units, MLRS - 185 (+0) units, air defence means - 87 (+0) units, aircraft - 199 (+0) units, helicopters - 158 (+0) units, UAVs operational and tactical level - 380 (+3), cruise missiles - 94 (+0), ships / boats - 12 (+0) units, motor vehicles and tankers - 1 980 (+10) units, special equipment - 41 (+0).
Due to significant losses in the Kharkiv region, units of the 138th separate mechanised brigade of the 6th-Military Army of the Western Military District were withdrawn from Ukraine to the Belgorod region of the russian federation for recovery. A significant part of the remaining military combatants who signed the contract with the army units wrote reports for dismissal.
2. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.
A senior Pentagon official said that sanctions against russia were beginning to damage its defence-industrial base, making it difficult for the russian military to replenish high-precision guided munitions.
He stressed that "they have already used a lot of high-precision weapons. They continue to hit Mariupol with a bunch of “dumb" bombs. So, they have problems with replenishing high-precision ammunition.
We believe that sanctions and export control, especially when it comes to electronic components, have affected the capabilities of russia's defense industry and their ability to replenish the.”
According to the US defense official, Ukraine has received 13 arms shipments from seven countries in the last 24 hours. He also said that the US President Joe Biden had asked for another $5 billion in military support for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the russian militaries, according to a US official, have not made much progress in Ukraine in the last 24 hours. He also said the Pentagon saw no sign that russia could mobilise more forces, “regardless of May 9.”
The head of US National Intelligence Avril Haines speaking in the Senate, said that president putin, in the face of an unsuccessful "special operation" in Ukraine, is likely to declare martial law in russia and start a war in the occupied territories of Moldova.
According to the UK intelligence review, the underestimation of the Ukrainian resistance and the losses sustained in the result did not allow putin to announce the military success of his army in Ukraine on May 9th.
According to UK intelligence, russia's plan of invasion was most likely based on the mistaken assumption that the russian army would meet limited resistance and be able to quickly surround the settlements.
It is noted that this assumption forced the russian troops to try to conduct the initial stage of the operation with an easy approach, designed to achieve a quick victory with minimal losses.
"This miscalculation has led to unbearable losses and a further reduction in russia's operational focus," the review has informed.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (GUR), putin's regime ordered the media to focus russian attention on “the opposition of the russian army to the all EU and NATO countries.”
Having numerous advantages in manpower and equipment, the army of the occupying country sustains catastrophic losses and defeats from the defenders of Ukraine. To change russians' perceptions of military "invincibility" and prepare society for possible defeat, russian media have been ordered to report on the russian-Ukrainian war as russia's armed confrontation with all European Union and the NATO countries. According to the Kremlin political technologists, this will reduce the shame of losing to a more powerful enemy.
The occupier's propagandists will now "brainwash russians with ideas about the need to unite for their own survival and blind confidence in the Kremlin dictator's policies."
3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing a genocide against Ukrainians.
International and national investigation into the genocide of the russian occupiers against Ukrainians. The bodies of 44 dead civilians were found in the temporarily occupied Izium in the Kharkiv region under the rubble of a house destroyed by the occupiers in March.
The russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. More than 642 children were injured in Ukraine as a result of full-scale armed aggression by the russian federation. As of the morning of May 10th, the official number of child victims has not changed - 226. The number of injured has increased and now is 416.
Most children were affected in the Donetsk (139), the Kyiv (116), the Kharkiv (99), the Chernihiv (68), the Kherson (46), the Mykolaiiv (44), the Luhansk (44), the Zaporizhzhia (28), the Sumy (17), the Zhytomyr (15) regions and in Kyiv City (16).
A 17-year-old girl was injured as a result of the enemy cruise missile fire in the village of Nova Dafinivka in the Odesa region.
The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. The night of May 10th was relatively calm for Kharkiv, heavy fighting continued in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, russians shelled Pervomaiskyi and several other villages in the Mykolaiiv region, and a shopping centre and a warehouse were destroyed by a missile strike in Odesa on May 9th.
There was a night of a constant anxiety in the Dnipropetrovsk region. In the morning, the Zelenodolsk community was shelled again with artillery. Several houses in the settlement of this community were affected. There are no victims.
The Kharkiv region: the night was relatively calm, during the day - one victim of shelling in the Slobidskyi district of the city. The occupiers fired on the Kharkivkyi and Balakliia districts - 4 people were wounded. Three people died in Tsyrkuny, two women were hit by an explosion while being carried on stretchers.
The Luhansk region: a shelling at the Lysychansk refinery - ignition of the installation of elemental sulphur and low gas pipeline gas station, a fire area of 360 square meters.
The Donetsk region: on May 9th, russians fired on 13 settlements, killed 12 civilians and wounded 7.
Significant destruction of civilian infrastructure in Mar’inka. In Avdjiivka: in the evening and in the morning there was artillery shelling, with direct hits on high-rise buildings. There were two air strikes at night. As of 8 am, the shelling continues.
The shelling of Toretsk, the villages of Zalizne and New York did not stop. In New York on May 9th, one of the few historical monuments burned down - Peter Dick's steam mill. The monument was not destroyed during two World Wars.
The Odessa region: in the evening of May 9th, the rockets were fired at Odesa. The shopping centre and the warehouse of finished consumer goods were destroyed. One person was killed, five wounded were taken to hospital and treated there.
russia has once again launched a missile attack on a damaged bridge across the Dniester estuary in the Odesa region.
The Mykolaiiv region: at about ten o'clock in the evening near the village of Bilozirka, there were attacks. Pervomaiske was shelled all night. An 81-year-old resident died as a result of the shelling, there was a fire and most garages were on fire. Pervomaisk territorial community was fired on during the entire night.
Lymany (the Halytsynivska territorial community of the Mykolaiiv district) lasted until 3 am. Three houses were destroyed, no one was injured. Also in the evening, the enemies fired on the village of Balovne (the Kostiantynivska territorial community). There is destruction of private houses there, the power substation failed.
4. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.
Despite the lack of official green corridors, one in five residents left the territory of the temporarily occupied Kherson region, and almost half of the people left the regional center.
5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to russian aggression.
The government and society demonstrate unity, patriotism and faith in victory. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba in an interview with The Times said that if Ukraine won the battle for Donbass, it would like to liberate all its russian-occupied territories, but did not rule out negotiations.
The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba also stated that if Ukraine does not receive the status of a candidate for EU membership, it will mean deception on the part of the European Union - and Ukraine is not going to accept this response.
The UOC-MP Metropolitan Onufrii asks the russian president putin to apply the extraction procedure to the Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol who are blocked at the Azovstal plant.
Economic and infrastructural losses due to russian aggression. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded the forecast for Ukraine's economic decline due to the war to 30% - at the end of March the forecast was minus 20%. This is stated in a statement on the bank's website.
At the same time, the EBRD forecasts a 20% recovery of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 compared to the previous forecast of 23%. However, the real rate of GDP growth will depend on how long the war in Ukraine will last, the terms of the peace agreement, the scale of reconstruction and the number of refugees returning home, the bank added.
Representatives of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) have suffered direct losses of $ 64-85 billion in the 75 days since the full-scale russian invasion has begun.
This is stated in the Advanter Group research provided with the support of the Ministry of Finance and the League of Business Clubs.
According to Kyiv local authorities, since February 24, the russian occupiers have destroyed 390 buildings in the capital, 222 of which are apartment buildings. The shelling and bombing damaged the buildings of 75 educational institutions, 30 of which were preschools. As well as 17 health care facilities and 11 cultural facilities.
The total cost of all reconstruction work is EUR 70 million.
Signs of recovery of the Ukrainian economy. Last week, the number of investors in military bonds among citizens and businesses increased from 11.8 to 43.3 thousand.
The Ministry of Finance sold UAH 4.7 billion worth of military bonds at an auction on May 10th.
Restoration of infrastructure in de-occupied and war-affected areas. Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Kyrylo Tymoshenko reported on the results of the restoration of critical infrastructure in de-occupied cities and towns, and currently there are 1,003 such settlements, de-mining has already been carried out in 224 settlements.
The National Police resumed work in almost 600 de-occupied towns and villages. Local governments have earned revenues in 70% of cities, road transport has been restored by 70%, railway - by 42%.
Gas supply was restored in 650 settlements, electricity was provided in 83% of settlements, water supply and sewerage - in 60% of settlements, gas stations were restored in 49% of settlements.
Mobile and Internet services have been restored in 720 settlements, banks operate in almost 300 settlements, and Ukrposhta has resumed its services in almost 800 settlements.
6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.
Political support for Ukraine. The US President Joe Biden has signed a land lease law for Ukraine, which will speed up the transfer of important military equipment and other critical supplies to Ukraine by reducing bureaucratic red tape. It de facto allows to donate equipment with provisions that provide that the recipient countries will pay their value to the United States later.
Bundestag Speaker Bärbel Bas called for speeding up the process of granting the EU membership to Ukraine. She said this in her interview for the ZDF.
German Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalen Baerbock has said that Germany supports Ukraine's full membership in the EU in the future.
The Lithuanian Seimas has approved a resolution recognising russia's actions in Ukraine as a genocide and russia as a country that supports and carries out terrorism. This was reported by Delfi.
Financial assistance to Ukraine. The US Department of Commerce has announced the suspension of 232 customs tariffs on Ukrainian steel for one year.
The European Commission plans to issue new EU debt securities to cover Ukraine's short-term financing needs over the next three months. This was reported by Politico, citing information from three European diplomats.
Military assistance to Ukraine. The United States transported 85 of the 90 howitzers the presidential administration promised to provide to Ukraine. Moreover, more than 110,000 rounds of ammunition have already been delivered to Ukraine, out of the promised 184,000.
310 Ukrainian gunners have completed a training course on howitzer shooting, and more than 50 are currently undergoing howitzer shooting training.
Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. 45 fire engines arrived in Ukraine, handed over by Italy in cooperation with the EU.
7. Statements, provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.
The White House believes that the content of the russian president putin's speech at the May 9th parade in Moscow is a lie and absurd.
Jen Psaki was quoted as saying by Ukrinform that "the assumption that president putin's war was caused by Western plans is a blatant lie and absurdity." She believes that other statements by putin at the parade are another "version of the review of history that has taken the form of misinformation" and have already taken place in russian guidelines.
Psaki called putin and the Kremlin a "disinformation factory."
8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.
New sanctions and restrictions against russia. Japan has announced new sanctions against russia, targeting Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and the defence industry companies.
Ukraine has been forced to suspend gas transit through stations in the Luhansk region since Wednesday, May 11th, in the russian-occupied territory, supplying a third of its gas to Europe. This was announced by the Operator of the gas transmission system of Ukraine.
The International Working Group on Sanctions against russia (Yermal-McFaul Expert Group) has developed a Roadmap for Energy Sanctions: Recommendations for Sanctions against russia. This was reported by the Office of the President of Ukraine.
Estonia and Finland have signed an agreement on security of gas supply, according to which neighbouring countries must help each other in the event of disruptions in natural gas supplies.
The Open Policy Foundation (hereinafter - the Foundation, http://openpolicy.org.ua) is a well-known public organisation that conducts analytical research and information campaigns, in particular on Ukrainian and foreign policy, protection of the rights of young people from the temporarily occupied territories to receive higher education in Ukraine.
With the beginning of the russian aggression, the Foundation's experts, together with other leading Ukrainian analysts, have joined a team to implement the Information Defence of Ukraine project. Experts of the project prepare daily reviews of the military-political situation in Ukraine in Ukrainian, English, and Russian, the first review was released on February 26th, moderate the telegram channel “Information Defence of Ukraine”, https://t.me/info_defense_ua.
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