Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of the past day of April 27th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine heroically restrain the enemy's attacks in the decisive battle for the Donbas.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy is launching offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone in order to establish full control over the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and establish a land corridor with occupied Crimea.

In Slobozhanshchyna, the enemy carried out systematic artillery shelling, including multiple rocket launchers, in Kharkiv and Derhachi and in the settlement of Prudianka.

In the Izium direction, units of the 1st Panzer Army, the 20th General Army of the Western Military District, the 35th General Army and the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District and Airborne Forces are conducting offensive operations in the direction of Barvinkovo. The enemy captured the northeastern outskirts of the settlement of Velyka Komyshuvakha, and also took control of the settlement of Zavody. An attempt to attack in the area of Nova Dmytrivka was unsuccessful, the enemy sustained losses and retreated.

In order to increase the grouping of troops, the occupiers transferred two-battalion tactical groups from the 76th Airborne Assault Division of the Airborne Forces from the territory of the Belgorod region to the city of Izium. In addition, in the areas of settlements of the Belgorod region, the enemy deployed two missile divisions of “Iskander-M”.

In the Donetsk and Tavriia directions, the enemy continues to shell the positions of Ukrainian troops along the line of contact with mortars and artillery. The enemy made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the defences of our troops in the Kurakhovo area.

In the Pivdennyi Buh direction, the russian occupiers tried to improve the tactical position of their troops in the direction of Zaporizhzhia. They had no success and have sustained losses.

The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to April 27 were: approximately 22,400 (+300) combatants were eliminated, tanks - 939 (+21) units, armoured combat vehicles - 2,342 (+34) units, artillery systems - 421 (+5) units, MLRS - 149 (+0) units, air defence equipment - 71 (+2) units, aircraft - 185 (+1) units, helicopters - 155 (+1) units, automotive equipment - 1,666 (+ 23) units, ships / boats - 8 (+0) units, fuel tanks - 76 (+0), UAVs of operational and tactical level - 207 (+2), special equipment - 31 (+0), launchers TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) - 4 (+0).

The Armed Forces of Ukraine struck at enemy positions on Zmiinyi Island, hit the command post and destroyed the Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile system.

2. The situation in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova.

The enemy continues to shake up the situation with provocations around the Transnistrian region, organising imitations of terrorist attacks, announcing missile strikes and sending messages to the residents of Transnistria on behalf of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with panic calls for evacuation.

In the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova, in connection with numerous provocations from russia, a "red" level of terrorist threat has been introduced. The personnel of the security forces were transferred to the "barracks state", the control at the checkpoints was strengthened, and the preparations for the May 9 holiday parade were cancelled.

According to the President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, russia is trying to destabilise the situation in the Transnistrian region: “We clearly understand that this is one of the steps of the russian federation. The special services have been already working there. It's not just about fake news.”

3. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.

According to the UK intelligence daily review, Ukraine retains control of most of its airspace, while russia has failed to effectively destroy the Ukrainian air force or suppress the Ukrainian air defence system.

russian aircraft are mainly concentrated in the south and east of Ukraine, providing support to russian ground forces. russia has very limited access from the air to the north and west of Ukraine, limiting offensive operations with deep strikes from long-range weapons, the review informs.

russia continues to strike at Ukrainian military facilities and logistics infrastructure throughout the country. Most russian air strikes on Mariupol are likely to be carried out by unguided bombs. These weapons increase the risk of civilian casualties.

The US intelligence shares operational data with the Ukrainian military command on where the russians' missile strikes are aimed so that Ukrainians can quickly move air defence systems. NBC News reported this.

Current and former US administration officials say the United States is constantly passing on information about the location and timing of russian airstrikes to Ukraine's military and political leadership. As a result, the Ukrainian leadership is relocating its air defence systems and aircraft in a timely manner, so russian missiles are allegedly hitting empty fields.

According to one of the former high-ranking officials, US intelligence is transmitting operational data from commercial satellites in orbit that track russian troops and aircraft. But U.S. intelligence agencies are also providing details on the types of troops and units of the russian military that operate at various points in the theatre of operations.

In addition, thanks to this exchange of information between intelligence agencies, in the first days of the invasion, Ukrainian forces were able to shoot down a large russian transport plane with hundreds of paratroopers on board. russians were going to land this plane at the Antonov airport in Hostomel.

According to officials, the CIA is focusing on operations to protect President Vladimir Zelensky, providing the president's bodyguards with up-to-date information on russian saboteurs' plans. The CIA advises the Office of Public Protection on when and where to move Zelensky so that he is not in the same place with all the military and political leadership.

Another source hinted to reporters that the intelligence exchange between the Ukrainian government and US intelligence agencies has intensified in recent weeks.

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, countries-members (Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) of the Collective Security Treaty Organization are reluctant to take part in the war against Ukraine.

Despite russia's insistence, the CSTO members do not want to decide on peacekeeping operations outside their countries, including in the so-called "DPR" and "LPR".

4. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide against Ukrainians.

International and national investigation into the genocide of the russian occupiers against Ukrainians. From April 1 to 14, the Ombudsman's Office received about 400 complaints of sexual violence by the russian occupiers.

russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. As of the morning of April 27, a total of 610 children are known to have been injured in Ukraine as a result of the russian federation armed aggression.

According to official figures, 217 children died (the number of victims has not changed over the previous day), the number of injured has risen to 393 children.

As far as we know, the most affected children are in the Donetsk - 129, Kyiv - 114, Kharkiv - 93, Chernihiv - 66, Kherson - 44, Mykolaiiv - 43, Luhansk - 37, Zaporizhzhia - 27, Sumy regions - 17, Zhytomyr regions – 15 and in Kyiv City – 16.

russian occupiers kill and abduct civilians, hold them hostage and torture them. In the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region, the occupiers are inspecting the houses of local residents in order to identify the places of residence of representatives of the security forces of Ukraine. There they carry out a census of the local population. Movement through the temporarily occupied territory without identity documents is prohibited.

In the temporarily occupied territory in the Kherson region, the occupiers are preparing for the so-called "referendum", bulletins are being printed, and personal data of local citizens of Ukraine are being clarified. At the same time, russian invaders continue to prevent civilians from leaving the occupied territory.

Sources in russian media confirmed that in mid-May the russian authorities were preparing to join the illegal formations of the DNR and LNR through the organisation of rigged "referendums." Two of them also named the probable dates - May 14th and 15th.

A pro-Ukrainian rally was dispersed in the russian-occupied Kherson, the occupiers used tear gas, injuring four people.

russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. On the night of April 27th, the russian occupiers shelled the Dnipropetrovsk region, and also carried out shelling in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson regions.

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Zelenodolsk community bordering the Kherson region was shelled at night. In Zelenodolsk, the energy infrastructure company was damaged. One person was injured. In general, several settlements in the community were shelled - Zelenodolsk, the villages of Maryanske and Velyka Kostromka.

The shelling continued in Kharkiv at night, and several fires broke out in high-rise apartment buildings in the Kyiv district. As of this morning, there is no information about the victims. Zolochiv, Derhachi, and Chuhuiiv were shelled in the region during the day.

The Luhansk region: almost the entire territory of the region sustained losses from shelling, 3 civilians were killed. Most in Rubizhne and Lysychansk. In Lysychansk, a school was shelled, with 23 people in the bomb shelter, no casualties.

On the morning of April 27th, the Hirske community was hit by an air strike, at least one person was killed.

In the Donetsk region on the evening of April 26th and in the morning of April 27th, the russian occupiers fired phosphorous shells at Avdiyivka, and also launched an air strike on the city in the morning - at least one person was injured.

Svitlodarsk territorial community (the Zaitsevo district) was fired at with cluster munitions. Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, Vuhledar, and Lyman were being shelled all the night.

In the Kherson region, fighting continues in settlements bordering the neighbouring regions (Vysokopilska, Velykooleksandrivska, Novovorontsovska, Stanislavska territorial communities). Explosions and shelling took place almost throughout the region.

For the second time, the russian army fired missiles at a road-railway bridge across the Dniester estuary in the Gulf of the Odesa region. Due to the destruction, Ukrzaliznytsia has stopped the suburban trains to Belgorod-Dniester 

5. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.

The kremlin is not considering the possibility of removing putin’s cousin Viktor Medvedchuk from Ukraine in exchange for the release of the Ukrainian militaries.

6. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to russian aggression.

The government and society demonstrate unity, patriotism and faith in victory. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine with the participation of the Mission of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Ukraine and the Red Cross Society of Ukraine will launch a new program of payments for internally displaced persons. Financial assistance under the program will amount to UAH 2,500 per person.

The National Bank of Ukraine transferred almost UAH 15.4 billion to the military, leaving UAH 137 million in a special account.

Economic losses due to russian aggression. The World Bank has said that rising food and energy prices could continue until the end of 2024 due to disruptions in trade and production. This was reported by Bloomberg.

Energy prices, which have reached their highest level since the 1973 oil crisis, are expected to exceed 50% in 2022 and then decline in 2023 and 2024. Prices for agricultural products and metals are projected to increase by almost 20% in 2022, and to decline and remain high in the coming years.

Signs of recovery of the Ukrainian economy. In April, the National Bank has issued UAH 50 billion by purchasing military bonds for the corresponding amount.

Restoration of infrastructure in the occupied territories. On April 27th, the construction of the water supply system to the city of Irpin and its connection with the Kyiv water supply system was completed. Water will be supplied to the city from the capital's water supply stations.

As a result of hostilities, the Irpin water supply and sewerage system was destroyed and the situation became critical, so work began immediately after the liberation of the city.

7. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine. Head of the G20 and Indonesian President Joko Widodo has invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to take part in the G20 summit. Earlier, all members were invited, including russian president putin.

As russia's invasion of Ukraine turned into a gruelling war without any serious peace agreement, the United States and its allies began talking about a new, longer-term goal of the war: to defeat russia so decisively on the battlefield that it could not attack Ukraine again.

It is noted that such a message was most clearly conveyed on Monday by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin after a visit to the Ukrainian capital, CNN reports .

73% of Americans support US efforts to supply weapons to Ukraine, the highest level of support since the russian invasion . This is evidenced by a survey by Reuters/Ipsos.

Austria has returned its Embassy to Kyiv after evacuating it due to the war.

Military assistance to Ukraine. The US Department of Defense has established a control centre to coordinate the supply and optimise the delivery of military aid to Ukraine in Stuttgart, Germany, in the area of responsibility of the European Command.

Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to the head of the President's Office, said that he had bad news for russia after the meeting of 40 world defence ministers, as support for Ukraine was growing significantly.

The UK and other Western nations must provide Ukraine with military aircraft as part of long-term military support. This call will be made by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Liz Truss in a keynote speech on Thursday, the BBC reports.

The UK Ministry of Defence has released summary information on non-lethal assistance provided to Ukraine after the russian invasion. Ukraine received 90,000 food kits, 10 pallets of medical equipment, 3,000 bulletproof vests and 77,000 helmets.

Canada will buy eight armoured vehicles for the Ukrainian military.

Financial assistance to Ukraine. The European Commission has proposed to suspend for a year import duties on all Ukrainian exports to the European Union.

"This proposal, which is an unprecedented gesture of support for the country in a state of war, also provides for the suspension for one year of all EU anti-dumping and protection measures on Ukrainian steel exports,” it is said in a statement.

It is noted that this step is designed to help increase Ukraine's exports to the EU and alleviate the plight of Ukrainian producers and exporters in the face of russia's military invasion.

8. Statements, provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.

russian president putin still assures that all the tasks of the war against Ukraine, which he calls a "special military operation", will be fulfilled.

The governor of the Belgorod region of the russian federation Vyacheslav Gladkov reported that, according to preliminary data, an ammunition depot is burning near the village of Stara Nelidovka.

The Chancellor of Austria called russian propaganda message about Vienna's agreement to pay for russian gas in rubles a fake. "Before the fake news of russian propaganda spreads here. Of course, OMV will continue to pay for gas supplies from russia in euros. Austria strictly adheres to the jointly agreed EU sanctions,” Karl Nehammer wrote on Twitter on Wednesday.

9. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia, cessation of russian gas supplies to EU countries. Ten companies in the European Union have opened ruble accounts with Gazprombank, as required by the kremlin, while four of them have already paid in rubles. This was reported by Bloomberg, citing a source close to russia's Gazprom.

According to unofficial information, russia has stopped supplying gas to Poland, the probable reason being the refusal to pay for it in rubles.

russia's Gazprom has informed Bulgarian gas company Bulgargaz about the suspension of gas supplies on April 27th. This was reported by the Ministry of Energy of Bulgaria. The agency has said that measures are being taken to ensure alternative gas supplies and there is no need to limit gas consumption in the country.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said that Gazprom's unilateral shutdown of gas supplies to consumers in Europe is another attempt by russia to use gas as a tool of blackmail. She noted that countries-members had developed contingency plans for such a scenario.

The Prime Minister of the Czech Republic Petr Fiala considers russia's actions to cut off gas in the EU a breach of treaty and an argument in favour of an energy embargo.

The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. The Minister of Finance of the russian federation Anton Siluanov said that russia's budget deficit for 2022, according to his preliminary estimate, would be 1.6 trillion rubles or about 2.16 billion dollars at the official exchange rate.

The head of the Accounting Chamber of russia Alexei Kudrin predicts a "very difficult situation" for russia in the next 2 years, only in the baseline scenario, russians expect a fall in GDP this year by 8.8%. This was reported by russian RBC.

Conservative forecasts of russians estimate the fall in GDP at 12.4% this year. Additional expenditures to support the economy will exceed $ 53 billion (4 trillion rubles).

The Visa system estimated the company's losses from leaving russia: $35 million was spent on de-consolidation of russia's subsidiary, another $25 million was spent to support russian and Ukrainian staff.