Year 2025: preliminary results
Igor Burakovsky, Doctor of Economics, Chairman of the Board of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Professor of Economics at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
Let me state at the very beginning, that for me as an expert, I always find it difficult to draw conclusions about a year that has just ended. Annual statistics are only available after the New Year holidays. In addition, it takes time to adequately assess the consequences of many current events and decisions. So noI can name several events and processes that, in my opinion, are significant for the world.
1. In April 2025, the US announced the introduction of high import duties against most of its trading partners and offered them separate bilateral trade agreements. This step effectively signaled a departure from the existing rules and regulations that formed the basis of the global trading system. At the same time, the World Trade Organization was effectively sidelined in performing its traditional functions in the field of multilateral regulation of international trade. Despite the obvious negative consequences of such a US policy, the timing, scale, and duration of their manifestation can only be assessed later.
2. The Russian-Ukrainian war has entered a qualitatively new phase — a war of attrition, with Russia effectively declaring war on the democratic countries that are Ukraine's allies. At the same time, the US has reevaluated its place in the international security architecture.
These circumstances have objectively forced the EU and European NATO countries to rethink the new political and security realities. This reassessment has resulted in a series of steps aimed at developing the EU's strategic autonomy.
These include increasing military spending, stimulating the development of national military-industrial complexes, developing military-industrial cooperation with Ukraine. introducing new rules for conscription into military service, stimulating the development of the defense industry, intentions to simplify procedures for the movement of military personnel and equipment within the EU (a kind of “military Schengen”), etc.
3. Given the above circumstances and the change in relations between the US and its NATO allies, we can talk about the beginning of the process of “Europeanization” of the North Atlantic bloc, but how exactly NATO will change and when is anyone's guess at this point.
4. The global economic landscape in 2025 was characterized by growing protectionist sentiments, active attempts by a number of countries to significantly restrict immigration flows, divergent economic dynamics in different regions of the world, and fragmentation of the global economy. This resulted in increased political and economic uncertainty, posing challenges for business (production and commercial activities), governments (macroeconomic policy), and international institutions (effective coordination of member states' actions and ensuring compliance with relevant agreements).
5. In terms of technological progress, experts believe that 2025 can be considered the year when a realistic attitude towards the possibilities of applying AI in commercial and production processes began. This was reflected, in particular, in the growth of investments in AI-related projects.
6. Experts note that the process of reducing international development assistance continued in 2025. An important factor in this was a radical review of the US international assistance strategy, the consequences of which were also felt by Ukraine.
7. According to The Economist magazine, Portugal was recognized as the ‘Economy of the Year 2025’. Experts believe that Portugal's economic success is the result of sustained economic growth, economic stability, and the dynamic expansion of the country's corporate sector. Therefore, Ukrainian experts and government officials should pay attention to this country's experience in forming and implementing economic policy.
Well, the general conclusion is very simple: we live in times of rapid fundamental political, economic, and technological changes. And this must be taken into account.
