Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of April 18th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for the decisive battle for the Donbas area.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi has stated on Facebook that the Russian army is trying to break through the defence line in several directions, focusing its main efforts on the Iziumskyi.

The threat from the sea was significantly reduced due to the sinking of the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet of the russian federation. However, the danger of landing naval and airborne troops remains. In this regard, measures are being taken to strengthen air defence, including logistical technical assistance from partner countries.

The defence forces are steadily defending Mykolaiiv from possible enemy’s attempts to resume the attacks and destroying the enemy in the suburbs of Kherson. In addition, the enemy is not being given the opportunity to advance in the direction of Zaporizhzhia.

The heroic defence of the hero-city Mariupol continues. The Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is taking all possible measures to support the defenders of the city. In particular, the destruction of the Saratov landing ship in the port of Berdiansk reduced the risk of landing and fire from the sea.

In the recent weeks, the enemy has regrouped its forces and resources in the east and is trying to break through the defences in several directions, concentrating its main efforts on the Iziumskyi direction.

The military command is strengthening the defence, especially anti-tank and anti-aircraft units. russia's "liberator" has badly worsened the humanitarian situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Despite the overwhelming forces of the enemy in some areas, with the help of the acquired skills of commanders and combat experience of our soldiers, we are able to repel attacks, inflicting heavy losses on the enemy.

According to Information Defence analysts, the enemy has started a decisive battle for the Donbas and launched a general attack, in particular in the Izium direction.

Total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 18.04: combatants - about 20,600 fatalities, tanks - 790 units, armoured combat vehicles - 2041 units, artillery systems - 381 units, MLRS - 130 units, air defence - 67 units, aircraft - 167 units, helicopters - 147 units, motor vehicles - 1487 units, ships / boats - 8 units, fuel tanks - 76, operational-tactical level UAVs - 155, special equipment - 27, TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) launchers - 4.

Five air targets were hit: one plane, three helicopters and one UAV.

2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence.

According to the UK intelligence in its review of April 17th, the persistent resistance of the defenders of Mariupol creates problems for russian troops in all operational areas. “The decisive resistance of the Ukrainians has become a serious test for the russian forces and is attracting combatants and weapons, slowing down the russian attacks in other places”, has been stated.

Intelligence notes that the kremlin's methods of operating in Mariupol, with shelling of civilian infrastructure and residential buildings, echo what the russian military did in Syria and during the Second Chechen War.

The United States estimates that since the end of last week, russia has added 11 more battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to its forces in eastern and southern Ukraine, bringing the total number of russian BTGs to 76.

The Central Intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine states that the number of official "refusals" among russian servicemen is growing, and the military leadership encourages men to fight in Ukraine by threatening relatives, payments and records in their personal files.

Thus, the number of refusals among "contractors" in units of the 150th Motorised Rifle Division of the 8th Army of the Southern Military District of the russian Armed Forces reached 60-70% of the total number of combatants.

Strategic and military facilities of the russian federation are now on Google Maps and can be viewed in maximum quality. On Google Maps in maximum resolution, it is possible now to see a variety of russian intercontinental ballistic missile launchers, command posts, secret landfills, etc.

3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide of Ukrainians.

The russian president awarded the 64th Brigade, which occupied Bucha in the Kyiv region in March, the honorary title of “Guards” for “exemplary actions” during the war against Ukraine.

The russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. According to preliminary data, more than 567 children were injured in Ukraine as a result of a full-scale armed aggression by russia: 205 children were killed and more than 362 children were injured.

According to official data of juvenile prosecutors, most of the children that were affected was in the Donetsk region - 117, the Kyiv region - 107, the Kharkiv region - 91, the Chernihiv region - 54, the Kherson region - 43, the Mykolaiiv region - 40, the Luhansk region - 36, the Zaporizhzhia region - 23, Kyiv City - 16, the Sumy region - 16, the Zhytomyr region - 15.

On April 15th, in the Vyshhorod district of the Kiev region, as a result of detonation of an unidentified explosive device a 17-year-old teenager was wounded.

Humanitarian catastrophe in Mariupol. Civilians, including women and children, are hiding on the territory of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, hiding from shelling in the plant's storage facilities. Former Minister of Interior Affairs Arsen Avakov said: “There, in Azovstal, there are many people in the bunkers - women, the elderly, and children. In terrible conditions, without medicine, food and water.”

To cover the tracks of their crimes, the russians are using civilians left in Mariupol to dig up the rubble, collect corpses and build mass graves. People "work" for food.

On the right leg and on the left arm, the russians are forcing civilians to wear a white bandage, both in the military of the russian federation and the so-called “DPR”, so they can bring the local population to the rank of combatants and send them to firing points, where people may die.

The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. On the morning of April 18th, russian troops launched a missile strike on Lviv and two districts of the Dnipropetrovsk region, as well as shelling of Mykolaiiv.

On Monday morning, April 18th, the russian army fired four missiles at Lviv, with 7 dead and 11 injured, including one child.

The russian army launched a missile strike on the Dnipropetrovsk region, some missiles were shot down by Ukrainian air defence systems, but one of the missiles hit an infrastructure facility – with two victims.

On the morning of April 18th, the russian invaders continued to fire on Kharkiv, killing at least one person and injuring six.

Later, at about 11:50 a.m., the russian occupiers fired on the Osnovianskyi district of Kharkiv. The shells fell on playgrounds near residential buildings. A man and a woman were killed in the shelling. A number of residential buildings were also damaged

International investigation into the war crimes of the russian occupiers. The police of Ukraine have completed all the necessary investigative actions in Irpin to record the war crimes of the russian federation and handed over the bodies of 269 dead locals for examination, a separate case concerning the area of Rich Town is ready for transfer to the local area services.

Police and prosecutors in several regions of Germany are investigating more than 140 cases of approval of the russian federation's war against Ukraine. This was reported by DW. Most of the cases concern the use of the letter "Z", which has become a symbol of the russian attack.

Austria is exploring the possibility of launching its own investigation into war crimes committed in Ukraine.

4. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.

Viktor Medvedchuk, a People's Deputy from The Opposition Platform – For Life detained by the Security Service, addressed the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the president of the russian federation putin with a proposal to exchange him for defenders and residents of Mariupol.

Serhii Haidai, the head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration, called on the region's residents to evacuate before it was too late. He asked Ukrainians to take more responsibility for their lives and leave the area where the fighting is taking place.

Deputy Prime Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk stated that on Monday, April 18th, humanitarian corridors in Ukraine will not work.

According to her, the day before there were long and difficult negotiations on the organisation of corridors from Mariupol, Berdiansk, Tokmak, Enerhodar, from the Kherson region and from the Luhansk region: Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Rubizhne, Popasna and Nyzhnie.

However, in violation of international humanitarian law, the russian occupiers did not stop blocking and shelling humanitarian routes. Therefore, for security reasons, it was decided not to open humanitarian corridors on Monday, April 18th.

5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, losses due to the russian aggression.

Ukraine has sent the first part of the completed questionnaire to the European Commission to assess our ability to obtain EU candidate status and is already working on the second part.

Society demonstrates solidarity, patriotism, and faith in victory. Since the beginning of the full-scale aggression of the russian federation, 1,660,000 Ukrainians have returned to their homeland.

On April 16th, for the first time since the beginning of the war, more people entered Ukraine from Poland than left the country. On Saturday, 22,000 people entered Ukraine and 19,200 people left.

The Ukrainian economy, despite the negative effects of hostilities, is demonstrating signs of recovery. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has reduced the number of permits for entrepreneurs tenfold - of the 500 previously required permits, only 50 remain under state control.

Oshchadbank ended the first quarter of 2022 with a profit: a positive financial result of UAH 243.562 million. For the same period last year, the profit amounted to UAH 252.335 million.

For the period of martial law, the state has decided to extend guarantees for deposits of citizens not within 200 thousand UAH, but for the entire amount of deposits. Three months after the end of the war, the amount of guarantees will be fixed – UAH 600 thousand.

The Cabinet of Ministers supported the NBU's proposal to nationalise UAH 26 billion in assets of russian banks withdrawn from the Ukrainian market. The final decision requires a decision of the National Security and Defence Council and a President’s Decree.

Ukraine is rebuilding infrastructure in the occupied territories. Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian energy companies have restored electricity supply to about 53,000 consumers. In particular, in the Kyiv region - 36.3 thousand consumers, in the Mykolaiv region - 10.1 thousand, in the Kharkiv region - 4.5 thousand, in the Kherson region - 1.3 thousand, in the Zaporizhzhia region - 800 consumers.

In Chernihiv, the blockages at the Gagarin Stadium were dismantled, and 25 kilometres of the M-01 highway were cleared of russian equipment.

Another temporary crossing was opened in the parking lot on the Kyiv-Chop highway. This crossing unblocked traffic between Kyiv and Zhytomyr.

Ukrposhta stated that it is resuming the work of branches throughout the Chernihiv region: they accept not only transfers and payments for communal services, but also shipments in Ukraine and abroad.

6. Provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.

russian authorities continue to hide information about the number of dead on the cruiser “Moscow”. A source close to the russian Black Sea Fleet command told Meduza that 37 sailors were killed and about 100 were injured in the shipwreck of the cruiser “Moscow”. According to the source, it is unknown how many have disappeared. In fact, "missing" on the high seas means that the bodies of the dead were not found.

Three other families of conscripts, who were also on the ship and "disappeared", contacted Dmytro Shkrebets, whose son-in-law "disappeared" because of the destruction of the cruiser “Moscow”.

Despite statements by the russian Ministry of Defence that the entire crew of the russian cruiser "Moscow" destroyed by the Armed Forces was completely evacuated, journalists found the first dead russian sailor in the crew - it was the midshipman from Udmurtia by the name of Ivan Vakhrushev.

The Center for Combating Disinformation at the National Security and Defence Council warns that russian troops may resort to provocations on Easter holidays, accusing the Ukrainian army of them in advance:

In particular, several propaganda media reported that “more than 70 mobile groups have been formed from nationalists in cars that will fire mortars at Orthodox churches on Easter night and then accuse the russian military of doing so.”

In russian universities, there are lectures on justification of war with Ukraine, often instead of ordinary lectures. A source close to the russian presidential administration told Medusa that the AP's internal political bloc "strongly recommends" placing the Z symbol on university websites, facades and classrooms, as well as holding thematic flash mobs.

The accusations of the President of Serbia about Ukraine's involvement in reports of mining of Serbian planes are not true. This was stated in a comment to "European Truth" by Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Oleh Nikolenko.

"We completely reject the baseless accusations of the President of Serbia. His allegations of Ukraine's alleged involvement in reports of mines by Serbian airlines flying to russia are untrue," he stated.

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

russia has begun preparations for the Victory Parade on the Red Square in Moscow - more than 11,000 servicemen and two hundred units of modern equipment and aircraft were involved in rehearsals.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. In russia, major retailers, including the X5 Group, VkusVill and Alphabet of Taste, are suspending the opening of new outlets and reorganising the teams responsible for creating new business lines.

Paramount will stop broadcasting its channels in russia on April 20th - operators began to receive such messages from the company.

The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. The head of the Central Bank of the russian federation Elvira Nabiullina expects significant economic problems in the second or third quarters of the year. This was reported by Reuters.

Nabiullina covered up the crisis in finance and the economy with the phrase "structural transformation". “The period when the economy can live on reserves is limited. And in the second and third quarters, we will enter a period of structural change and the search for new business models,” she said.

The sanctions have largely affected the financial market, “but they will now have an increasing impact on the economy.”

The mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin said that the withdrawal or suspension of foreign companies in Moscow created risks for 200,000 people. According to him, 3.36 billion rubles were allocated last week for the program to support workers at risk of dismissal.