Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of April 15th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions and continue counterattacks.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, russia continues to launch missile strikes on the civil and industrial infrastructure of Ukraine and is trying to launch attacks in some areas.

Air strikes on Mariupol continue. The partial blockade of Kharkiv continues. In the Donetsk direction, the enemy tried to storm Mar’inka, but was unsuccessful.

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 15.04 were approximately: combatants - about 20,000 people, tanks - 756 units, armoured combat vehicles - 1976 units, artillery systems - 366 units, MLRS - 122 units, air defence - 66 units, aircraft - 163 units, helicopters - 144 units, vehicles - 1443 units, ships / boats - 8 units, fuel tanks - 76, UAVs operational and tactical level - 135, special equipment - 25, TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) launchers - 4.

The commander of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade, Major Serhii Volyna, calls on the authorities to unblock Mariupol as soon as possible, either militarily or politically.

russia has officially acknowledged that the cruiser "Moscow" sank after a long fire on board while being towed to Sevastopol. This was reported by the russian state media RIA Novosti with reference to the Ministry of Defence of the russian federation.

2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence.

The US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns warns against taking tactical nuclear weapons lightly (source - CNN).

Burns added that Putin was losing supporters in his circle, and that he was becoming increasingly suspicious and tightening his grip on power.

According to the Pentagon, Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities are threatened by rocket fire from russia. The Pentagon spokesman stressed that even when russia began to withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian capital, from Chernihiv, from northern Ukraine, the United States did not believe that Kyiv had escaped danger, especially from the air.

According to sources in Ukrainian intelligence, russia may try to attack large Ukrainian cities from the air amid the failure of its "special operation" to seize Ukraine. The biggest threat of missile attacks is a period until April 18th.

The Defence Ministry of russia has said that it plans to launch missile strikes "on targets" in Kyiv.

According to UK intelligence on Twitter, the cruiser "Moscow", which sank after being hit by Ukrainian missiles, played a key role as both the command ship and as the air defence unit for the russian occupiers.

On March 24th, after the invasion of Ukraine, two key naval facilities were destroyed, the first of which was the russian landing ship "Saratov". Both events are likely to force russia to reconsider its maritime position in the Black Sea.

4. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing mass genocide of Ukrainians.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is convinced that the chances of holding peace negotiations with russia after the horrific crimes of the russian occupiers in Mariupol and the settlements of Kyiv region are decreasing.

Police have already found more than 900 bodies of civilians in the settlements of the Kyiv region which were liberated from the russian occupiers, most of them with gunshot wounds. Bucha Mayor Anatolii Fedoruk said that the bodies of almost 85% of the dead have bullet holes.

On Thursday U.S. Senators Steve Danes and Victoria Sparts visited Kyiv and its suburbs, which have been occupied by russian troops, becoming the first U.S. officials to arrive since the start of the war.

The senators also visited Bucha and observed the exhumation of the mass grave. Steve Danes called what he saw as “indisputable evidence of war crimes.”

The russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. More than 553 children were injured in Ukraine as a result of the armed aggression of the russian federation, with 198 children killed and more than 355 wounded.

According to the data received by juvenile prosecutors, the most affected children were in the Donetsk - 117, Kyiv - 105, Kharkiv - 81, Chernihiv - 54, Mykolaiiv - 40, Kherson - 38, Luhansk - 36, Zaporizhzhia – 23, Sumy - 16, Zhytomyr – 15 regions and in Kyiv City – 16.

During the recording of crimes committed in Trostianets, the Sumy region, it was established that a 14-year-old boy died because of shelling by the russian military on March 21st.

On April 14th, due to shelling in Oleksandrivka in the Kharkiv region, two children aged 9 and 11 were injured.

The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. Regional leaders report explosions in the Kyiv and Kherson regions, and shelling in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions.

Today, the russian occupiers have shelled one of the residential areas of Kharkiv, killing 7 people, including a 7-month-old child, and injured 34.

Twenty-four russian troops fired on houses and infrastructure in the Luhansk region on April 14th, killing two and wounding two others. On April 15th, shelling has continued, there are victims from the shelling.

On April 14th, 3 more civilians were killed and seven were injured in russian shelling and air strikes in the Donetsk region.

As a result of attacks on Mykolaiiv, 5 people were lost and 15 were wounded. One of those who were killed raised an unexploded ordnance from the ground.

Seven people were killed in a russian military shelling of civilian buses near the village of Borova in the Izium district on April 14th, and another 27 civilians were injured.

More than 76,700 information requests about the destruction and damage of Ukrainian property were received through the Diia. The total area of losses is more than 5.3 million square meters.

The russian occupiers destroyed 95% of buildings in Mariupol, and many residents were deported to russia.

russian invaders destroyed 77% of the territory of the village of Horenka in the Kyiv region. A map of the UN Satellite Center evidences this.

5. The evacuation of civilians continues under the attacks from the russian aggressors.

On Friday, April 15th, 9 humanitarian corridors in the South and East of Ukraine were confirmed.

It will be possible to travel from Mariupol, Berdiansk, Tokmak and Enerhodar to Zaporizhzhia by own transport. Due to weather conditions, evacuation buses are not yet able to travel on the route between Zaporizhzhia and Vasylivka as the road is presently impassable.

Also, due to the cessation of shelling by the occupying forces, evacuation routes have operated today in the Luhansk region: from Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Popasna, the village of Hirske, Rubizhne to Bakhmut.

On April 15th, 2,494 people (including 363 people from Mariupol and 2,131 people from Polohy, Vasylivka, Berdiansk and Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region) travelled to Zaporizhzhia via humanitarian corridors from Mariupol and Berdiansk.

Also, despite constant shelling, 370 people were evacuated from Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, Kreminna, Popasna and the village of Hirske in the Luhansk region.

2,864 people were evacuated from the fighting zone on April 15th.

6. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, losses due to the russian aggression.

Society demonstrates solidarity, patriotism, and faith in victory. The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has banned symbols used by the russian armed forces in the war against Ukraine.

russia is recognised as a terrorist state, one of the goals of its political regime is the genocide of the Ukrainian people, physical destruction, mass murder of Ukrainian citizens, international crimes against civilians, use of prohibited methods of war, destruction of civilian objects and critical infrastructure, artificial creation of a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine or its separate regions.

According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), on Friday, more than five million people have left Ukraine since the russian invasion began on February 24th.

Ukraine's economy is suffering from war, the largest Ukrainian companies are sustaining losses due to the russian aggression. A president of Enerhoatom Petro Kotin said that the direct and indirect losses of the company because of russia's full-scale war reached 35 billion UAH.

Two giants of the machine-building industry will move to the Lviv region. It is an enterprise engaged in wind turbines and electricity supply, as well being engaged in fire, specialised and agricultural machinery.

The Ukrainian economy, despite the negative effects of hostilities, is showing signs of recovery. The National Bank has allowed banks to sell cash in foreign currency to the public since April 14th. This was reported by the press service of the National Bank of Ukraine.

The regulator notes that the resumption of cash sales by banks will help reduce the functioning of illegal exchangers and, consequently, reduce risks for citizens.

More than 80% of Ukrainian window factories have resumed production, up to 10% of production facilities are located in the territories occupied by russian troops, and a number of others are in the zone of active hostilities.

The bus operator FlixBus is resuming routes to Kyiv and a number of other Ukrainian cities, flights to which were suspended with the start of the war. In particular, these are given as Zhytomyr, Rivne, Vinnytsia, Uman, Khmelnytskyi, and Ternopil.

The number of apartment seekers for rent in Kyiv is 40% of the pre-war figure. This is reported on the page of the  apartment rental application Bird.

Deputies of the Kyiv City Council supported the decision to exempt tenants of communal property from rent.

Ukraine is rebuilding infrastructure in the occupied territories. Ukrposhta reported that as of April 15th, there are almost 6,000 branches across the country, the leader in the number of open branches is the Kyiv region (465 branches).

On April 16th, Ukrzaliznytsia will restore the railway connection with the unblocked Chernihiv and a number of settlements in the region.

By the end of May, Ukrenergo plans to restore the entire electricity infrastructure in the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions. Since the occupiers left these regions, 60% of the infrastructure has been repaired and put into operation.

7. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Military assistance to Ukraine. According to a senior US Defense Department official, the first flight with new aid to Ukraine from the United States worth $800 million should arrive in the region in the next 24 hours.

The administration of US President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday a new aid package, which included 11 Mi-17 helicopters originally intended for Afghanistan, 18,155-mm Howitzer guns and another 300 Switchblade drones, as well as radar systems capable of tracking approaching fire and accurately defining targets.

This package differs from previous aid in that it includes more sophisticated and more powerful weapons than previous deliveries.

russia sent an official diplomatic note to the United States this week warning that US and NATO supplies of "most sensitive" weapons systems to Ukraine "add fuel to the fire" of the conflict and could lead to "unpredictable consequences."

The total amount of US military assistance provided to Ukraine after the February 24th invasion was $3.2 billion.

Financial assistance to Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund has increased emergency funding for aid to Ukraine to $1.4 billion. The United States has launched a special account for further funding and, together with international partners, is preparing for a large-scale reconstruction effort.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. France will hand over 24 fire engines and ambulances to Ukraine, as well as 50 tons of rescue equipment, which will be the second such batch of aid in a month.

8. Provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.

According to the Security Service of Ukraine, the russian federation shelled the village of Klimovo in the Bryansk region, although it blamed Ukraine for this.

This is confirmed by recent interceptions of telephone conversations of the occupiers, which are at the disposal of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). "This is our heroes’ job," explains the russian aggressor, who is now in the Donetsk region, to his wife, and received this information from his commander. To the woman's question "why you need to do that?" he answers: "That's right. That's what they do to provoke the Ukrainians. And that's why they hit."

The FSB reported that on April 14th, a border checkpoint in the Bryansk region was shelled by Ukraine, as a result of which two cars were damaged and no one was injured. By noon, the testimony had changed - it turned out that "two houses" in the village of Klimovo had been shelled. The russians said seven people were injured, including a "pregnant woman and a child".

The Centre for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine explained that russia's special services have begun implementing a plan to carry out terrorist attacks on its territory to fuel anti-Ukrainian hysteria.

russian troops fired artillery at the town of Vasylivka in the Zaporizhzhia region, damaged several houses in the city centre and the private sector, a shop and depot at the “Tavriysk” railway station, killed one and wounded five people.

Also, according to the available information, representatives of the russian armed forces plan to send the media of the occupying forces to the territory of Vasylivka on April 15th to create propaganda materials for russian federal television, which should discredit the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Denys Monastyrskyi, said that the russian occupiers, while fleeing from Chernobyl, robbed the police station where there were radioactive items.

9. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. The United Kingdom has added to the sanctions list two business partners of oligarch Roman Abramovich - Eugene Tenenbaum and David Davidovich: the government has frozen their assets worth up to 10 billion pounds.

The European Union is preparing a gradual oil embargo against russia, which may be approved after the second round of the French presidential election on April 24th.

The threat of russia's default on its foreign obligations. If russia does not pay its foreign debts in the appropriate currency by May 4th, it will mean default of the issuer. This was reported by the international credit agency Moody's.

russia's payment for two bonds maturing in 2022 and 2042 in rubles instead of dollars is a change in the terms of payment for the initial bond contracts and can therefore be considered a default. In russia, there is time until May 4th, i.e. until the end of the grace period to meet the terms of the agreements.

The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. From January 1st to April 15th, 2022, Gazprom's gas exports to foreign countries amounted to 44.6 billion cubic meters, which is 26.4% less than in the same period of 2021.

The russians withdrew $9.8 billion from foreign currency accounts in March, the outflow continued for the second month in a row and could be more powerful than in February.

Due to EU sanctions, russia has lost the opportunity to supply forest products for about $6 billion a year, and the reorientation to China will not cover the loss.

Services of russian private clinics may rise by up to 20% due to a shortage of imported equipment and consumables - prices for some consumables have increased by 300%.

The American company FMC - the fifth largest agricultural company in the world - is closing its operations and business in russia.