14:14 24.03.2022

Author IHOR ZHDANOV

Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 24th, 2022

16 min read
Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 24th, 2022

Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, morning of March 24th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The russian occupiers have not achieved success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken the towns of Irpin and Bucha, and the village of Hostomel near Kyiv, while the russian occupiers continue to shell the Makariv, Bucha, Irpin and Dmyrivska communities. The National Police is resuming its work in Irpin.

According to a senior US Defense Department spokesman (source - CNN), Ukrainian troops have moved the front line east of Kyiv by 25-35 km. According to him, currently russian troops are located at a distance of about 55 kilometers from the center of Kyiv to the east, which is 25-35 kilometers more than the same location the day before.

To the north-west of the center of Kyiv, russian troops are "digging and establishing defensive positions." Along this line, they did not approach the center of Kyiv, remaining at a distance of 15-20 kilometers from the center of the capital.

In the Slobozhanskyi direction, near Izium, the occupiers attempted to break through the defence of our troops in the area of the settlements of Donetsk, Topolske, Kamianka, and fighting continues.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy's main efforts are focused on capturing the settlements of Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Popasna, Verkhniotoretske, Mar’inka, and Mariupol.

In the area of Popasna, with the support of artillery, the enemy continues an attempt to enter the city and gain a foothold in the previously captured positions. He was unsuccessful and sustained losses.

Continues to inflict air and artillery strikes on civil infrastructure facilities in Mariupol. They are not successful.

The total losses of the enemy from February 24 to March 24, 2022 (for a month of hostilities) are:

 

A NATO spokesman has said at a briefing that the russian army's casualties in Ukraine could range from 7,000 to 15,000, and the total loss, including the wounded, missing and captured, are up to 40,000. Such statements confirm the data published by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper reported that the russian occupiers had lost about 10,000 servicemen. The news was soon removed.

Ukrainian intelligence reports that Syria is failing a plan to involve militants in russia's war in Ukraine. Most of the Syrian military are not willing to risk their lives for illusory financial benefits.

2. The russian occupiers continue to violate international humanitarian law.

russian aggressors continue to kill Ukrainian children. During 28 days of the war, the russian occupiers killed 121 children. Another 168 children were injured in various shellings and bombings by russian troops, according to the Prosecutor General's Office.

The most affected children are in the Kyiv region - 61. In the Kharkiv region - 41, the Donetsk region - 40, the Chernihiv region - 32, the Mykolaiiv region - 24, Kyiv City - 16, the Zhytomyr region - 15, the Kherson region – 15, and the Sumy region - 14. 

Rocket and bomb strikes on peaceful Ukrainian cities continue. We emphasize again, as we analyzed in the previous publications, the massive shelling of Kharkiv and Mariupol cannot be explained by the executor's excess and tragic mistakes because of the use of indiscriminate type ammunition.

The only logical explanation is the deliberate terrorism of russia against the civilian population in order to break the spirit and will to victory of both the Ukrainian people and the top military and political leaders of the country.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken officially accused the servicemen of the russian federation of committing war crimes on the territory of Ukraine.

“Today, I can say that taking into account the information available at the moment, the US government believes that the russian military has committed war crimes in Ukraine. Our assessment is based on a careful analysis of available information from open and intelligence sources,” Blinken said.

The statement said that many of the targets targeted by russian troops were clearly identified as civilian structures in use.

"Including the Mariupol maternity hospital, as explicitly stated in the report of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights of March 11th. This includes a blow to the Mariupol theater, clearly marked with the word “Children” in capital letters visible from the sky. These are the tactics provided in Grozny, Chechnya and Aleppo, where they have intensified bombing of cities to break the will of the people,” the statement said.

Here are some (not all) examples of terrorism by the russian occupiers in Ukraine in recent days.

On the night of March 23-24th, the russians covered the Luhansk region with missiles and phosphorus bombardment. Residents of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Rubizhne, Kreminna, Novodruzhesk, and Voievodivka were under fire. Currently, 35 settlements remain without electricity, 21 of them are completely without electricity. 101,526 people are without light.

During the past 24 hours, 23 houses and residential blocks were damaged or completely destroyed in the region - 10 high-rise buildings and 13 private houses. 16 of them were on fire.

One person was killed and two others were injured in the shelling of a shopping center car park in Kyiv Podilskyi district. In general, 87 residential buildings in Kyiv have been damaged since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Kyiv City Hall reports.

Since the shelling of the Kharkiv regional administration on Sumska Street on March 1st, the bodies of 24 victims have been removed from the rubble. On the first day, rescuers reported seven deaths, later 10. There is no final information, as the works continue.

In Chernihiv, a russian projectile damaged the main ammonia pipeline.

The abduction of civilians and their hostages continue. The russian military has abducted the head of the Kherson Music and Drama Theater, Olexander Knyha, who lives in Oleshki and is a deputy of the Kherson Regional Council.

russia plans to stage a “great terror” in occupied Kherson, abducting residents and smuggling them across russia's border. Such data was provided by the Times with reference to a letter probably written by a russian FSB officer.

On Wednesday, the russian occupiers broke into the house of Svitlana Zalizetska, a journalist and director of the Ria-Melitopol website, and abducted her 75-year-old father. Now they are blackmailing the journalist, demanding that she come to them.

The sowing season in Ukraine is under threat due to the actions of the russian aggressors. This calls into question global food security, as Ukraine is one of the world's leading food exporters.

The russian occupiers, violating international humanitarian law, do not stop artillery fire, missile and air strikes, deliberate destruction of urban infrastructure, and chaotic mining and destruction of agricultural machinery that threatens the beginning of the sowing season in some regions of Ukraine.

3. Under attacks by the russian occupiers, evacuation through humanitarian corridors continues.

On Wednesday, March 23, the Ukrainian authorities and the russian military agreed on 9 humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of people, including from Mariupol in the Donetsk region, near Kyiv, in the Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Iryna Vereshchuk, the Minister for Reintegration and Temporarily Occupied Territories, stated that seven of the nine humanitarian corridors were operational on Wednesday.

In the Zaporizhzhia region from Huliaipole to Zaporizhzhia it was possible to evacuate 51 people and bring humanitarian aid to the city. The russian occupiers held a convoy of buses to evacuate people from Polohy to Zaporizhzhia.

In the Kyiv region, 769 people were evacuated from the villages of Velyka Dymerka and Bohdanivka to Brovary, and 150 people were evacuated from Svetilnya to Brovary.

At the same time, people were again unable to be evacuated from Borodianka to Bila Tserkva due to violations of the regime of silence by the occupying forces.

In the Luhansk region, 672 people were evacuated from Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, Kreminna and the village of Nizhnie to Bakhmut. Also, 60 tons of humanitarian aid were delivered to these cities through the humanitarian corridors.

In particular, in the Donetsk region, 2,912 people traveled from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia by their own vehicles.

At the same time, buses and trucks with humanitarian aid, which arrived in Berdiansk on Tuesday, were blocked all day by the occupying forces at the entrance to the city.

Also, the occupiers kept an additional convoy of buses for evacuation of Mariupol residents and a fuel truck at the checkpoint in Vasylivka all day. The convoy has stayed overnight in Tokmak and will continue to Berdiansk on Thursday morning.

Iryna Vereshchuk also said that rescuers from the State Emergency Service and bus drivers who were unjustifiably detained in Manhush on Tuesday should be released on Thursday.

In general, 4,554 people were evacuated on March 23rd.

4. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

In a speech to the French parliament, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for more weapons to be provided to protect from russia, as well as more economic sanctions against russia.

The UN Security Council thwarted a draft resolution proposed by russia, which called for the protection of civilians and humanitarian aid, but did not specify who was responsible for the humanitarian crisis. Of the 15 members of the Security Council, two supported the project - Russia and China, the rest abstained.

NATO's peacekeeping mission is unlikely to be sent to Ukraine. Last week, Poland said that an international peacekeeping mission should be sent to Ukraine and provided with protection.

The Ministry of Defence of Poland is currently working on a project to establish a NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, but President Andrzej Duda may reject the document if he does not receive the green light from the United States.

Ahead of NATO's extraordinary summit on Thursday, Poland's proposal is to be sent to the White House for consideration by US President Joe Biden.

The Polish government has previously stated that it is preparing to present the idea of ​​a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at the NATO summit and at the European Council meeting on March 24th.

There is no consensus among NATO members on this issue. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz insists that NATO will not take part in the war in Ukraine and, therefore, strongly opposes sending a NATO peacekeeping mission to Ukraine.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of russia Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that sending peacekeepers to Ukraine could lead to a direct confrontation between russia and NATO.

Military assistance to Ukraine continues. The NATO summit in Brussels on March 24th will agree to provide Ukraine with equipment to protect against chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats.

The Council of the European Union has decided to double funding for Ukraine under the European Peace Fund in the face of russian aggression. The aid measures will increase the initial budget announced on February 28th, 2022, by an additional € 500 million, doubling the starting amount to € 1 billion.

The European Union has approved an agreement with Ukraine that will allow the bloc to share classified information with Kyiv, such as satellite pictures.

The UK will provide Ukraine with 6,000 missiles and 25 million pounds (29 million euros) for the Ukrainian army. The new missile package approximately doubles the defence lethal aid from the UK - 10,000 missiles. And the total financial support has reached 400 million pounds - including humanitarian and economic aid.

Sweden will provide Ukraine with an additional 5,000 anti-tank weapons to fight the Russian invasion.

Humanitarian aid continues to arrive in Ukraine. Ukraine received 50 ambulances from international partners.  Ambulances will be transferred for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine so that doctors can safely and quickly evacuate the wounded from the combat zone and provide them with assistance.

The European Union will allocate 3.4 billion euros to reconstruction funds to help countries accept refugees from Ukraine fleeing the russian invasion.

Switzerland is ready to give Ukrainians who left their country because of the war a special "S" status. The so-called S status, which they decided to offer for the admission of Ukrainians, was developed in the mid-1990s, during the wars in the Balkans. This mechanism was developed in order to receive refugees quickly, bypassing lengthy bureaucratic procedures.

In New York, Mayor Eric Adams took part in a ceremony to raise American and Ukrainian flags in Manhattan. According to city officials, the flag will fly over New York until Ukraine's victory in the war.

6. Provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.

russia lied, showing examples of cynicism and neglect of human life. Despite constant mass shelling of Mariupol, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and other cities, mass killings of Ukrainian civilians, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the russian military did not shoot at Ukrainian civilians, but allegedly helped them. He re-invented the story of "Ukrainian nationalists" who use civilians as "living shields."

russia is preparing provocations by shelling its own villages and cities. The governor of the Belgorod region of the russian federation Vyacheslav Gladkov declared that the shell released from the territory of Ukraine exploded in the territory of the region. In two villages of the Belgorod district of the region, Zhuravlyevka and Nekhoteevka, an emergency regime has been introduced.

Moreover, the head of the Kharkiv Region War Administration, Oleh Synehubov, stated that russia was preparing provocations to shell its own territories and accused Ukraine of doing so. The Armed Forces will never strike at civilian infrastructure and civilians, as the Rashists do. It is known that the russian troops that invaded the territory of Ukraine are in this area of the border.

The Center for Counteracting Misinformation of the National Security and Defence Council warns of possible preparation of chemical attacks by the enemy.

Thus, the enemy “treats the population of russia regarding the use of chemical weapons” by nationalists against the civilian population. “We emphasize that there are no such laboratories in Ukraine.”

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of russia Lavrov said that the Ukrainian side was allegedly “constantly changing its position” during the negotiations.

In his opinion, Kyiv’s statements on a referendum are aimed at allegedly prolonging the negotiation process. Lavrov also said that the United States wants to "keep russia in hostilities" for as long as possible and continue to supply weapons to Ukraine.

Poland will expel about 40 russian diplomats for activities incompatible with diplomatic status – they were accused of espionage.

7. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

Support for russia's war against Ukraine continues to grow among russians, and protest potential is declining. This is evidenced by a survey conducted by the All-russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VCVGD), which was conducted on March 17th.

As a result of mass brainwashing, propaganda, and disinformation, the decision to conduct a “special military operation” by russia in Ukraine is supported by 74% of russians. Compared to February 25th, this figure has increased by 9%. 17% do not support the operation (8% less than on February 25th).

A Moscow court has fined Anna Krechetova 50,000 rubles for a “Fascism Will Not Succeed?” poster.  The court said that this, “discredits russia’s armed forces.”

Negative attitude toward the Ukrainian-russian war is growing among the russian political class. russian politician Anatoly Chubais has resigned as russia's special envoy for relations with international organizations to achieve sustainable development goals and left russia because of his opposition to putin's war in Ukraine.

Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank of russia, resigned after russia's invasion of Ukraine, but president putin did not allow her to leave the position in the bank. This was reported by Bloomberg with reference to four informed interlocutors.

The agency's interlocutors said the resignation would now be considered as a betrayal by putin, with whom she had been working closely for nearly two decades.

russian media on Wednesday drew attention to the fact that Minister of Defence of russia Sergei Shoigu has stopped appearing in public since March 11th, i.e. he has not been seen for 12 days out of 28 while the war in Ukraine continues. Also, after March 11th, no events were reported with the participation of russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine Oleksii Danilov believes that the disappearance of key russian military leaders from the public sphere suggests that russian authorities are investigating and finding those responsible for the failures in Ukraine.

Sanctions have a negative impact on the economic situation in russia. After February 24th, consumer loans began to fall sharply. The number of borrowers' applications has halved, disbursements have fallen even more - by 60-75%.

russian company "Severstal" headed by Alexei Mordashov has to make a payment for the issue of Eurobonds, the grace period for which ends on Wednesday, but may not have time. Bloomberg reported  this news with reference to its interlocutors.

The Minister of Economic Development of Finland, Mika Lintilä, stated that the issuance of a license for the Hanhikivi NPP project, in the construction of which Rosatom is involved, is "absolutely impossible". According to the Minister, in a situation where the large owner of the future nuclear power plant has violated all rules related to nuclear energy and forcibly seized a nuclear power plant from a foreign country, it is absolutely impossible to issue a license.

Germany's third most valuable energy company, EnBW, will not sign new contracts with russia while the putin regime is in place.

russia is trying to circumvent sanctions. president putin has instructed to accept payment for russian natural gas supplied to "unfriendly countries" only in rubles. All foreign consumers should be able to make payments for russian gas in rubles, said the russian president.

russia's Minister of Transport Vitaly Savelyev has admitted that russia's decision not to release $ 20 billion worth of US aircraft at the request of the owners is a theft. According to him, they will never fly abroad again, "only to friendly countries."

The International Swimming Federation has decided to completely exclude athletes from russia and Belarus from the World Aquatics Championships to be held in June-July in Budapest.

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