Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, morning of March 19th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The russian occupiers have not achieved success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are holding back the enemy and carrying out counter-offensive operations in certain operational areas. There are artillery and rocket-bomb attacks on groups of troops and columns of equipment.

In most operational areas the situation is without significant changes, there are battles of local significance, the war has moved to the positional stage. The enemy is having an operational pause to draw up reserves, particularly from the Far East, Armenia, and recruiting mercenaries in Syria.

Active hostilities are taking place in the Luhansk direction, where the invaders are trying to establish control over the settlements of Rubizhne and Popasna, as well as the blockade of Severodonetsk.

In the area of Rubizhne, the enemy was established on the western and northwestern outskirts of the city, making unsuccessful attempts to reach the southern part of the city. Fighting continues for Popasna.

In the Donetsk direction, in particular in the Azovstal area, russian occupation forces temporarily cut off Ukraine from access to the Sea of Azov.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 till 19.03 were approximately: combatants - about 14,400 people, tanks - 466 units, armoured combat vehicles - 1470 units, artillery systems - 213 units, MLRS - 72 units, air defence - 44 units, aircraft - 95 units, helicopters - 115 units, vehicles - 914 units, ships / boats - 3 units, fuel tanks - 60, UAV of operational and tactical levels -17.

Since the beginning of russia's attack on Ukraine, the armed forces have been able to liberate more than 30 settlements in the Kyiv region, which were temporarily occupied by the enemy.

As a result of the fire on the enemy, the commander of the 8th All-Military Army of the Southern Military District of the Armed Forces of the russian federation, Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev was killed.

Fighters of the operational and tactical group "East" on Friday destroyed 8 tanks, 11 infantry fighting vehicles and a platoon of enemy infantry in several directions.

According to the Pentagon, as of March 18th, the russian occupiers had fired 1,080 missiles across Ukraine.

The enemy spent almost their entire stockpile of missiles and some types of ammunition, as a result of which a number of enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex were transferred to round-the-clock operation.

2. Prospects for nuclear blackmail by russia.

russia’s problem of nuclear blackmailing is becoming increasingly important in international political and expert circles. If we define its essence briefly, we can ask: will Russia actually use tactical nuclear weapons for its defeat in the war against Ukraine?

This was reported by US intelligence agency. According to the director of the Pentagon's intelligence department, Lieutenant General Scott Berrier russian president putin will threaten to use nuclear weapons against the West if Ukraine’s resistance to the war continues, Bloomberg reports.

There is almost no doubt about the possibility of russia's nuclear blackmailing in case of the probability of its defeat – state Information Defence experts.

However, the distance between the “threat of using nuclear weapons” and the “use of them” is enormous. Until a couple of weeks ago, most experts would have followed conservative scenarios, saying that putin was bluffing, that it was necessary to negotiate and do business as usual.

However, the course of the Ukrainian-russian war has demonstrated that putin is not only able to bluff and raise stakes, but also to resort to openly aggressive inadequate actions, as was the case with the beginning of russia's aggression against Ukraine. The world has changed dramatically these days.

Today, the scenario of the use of tactical nuclear weapons (in Ukraine or in one of the NATO countries), according to Information Defence experts, no longer looks so unlikely.

putin believes that he will benefit from the use of tactical nuclear weapons, as he is convinced that NATO is weak and does not dare to respond adequately.

According to well-known expert Andriy Piontkovsky, NATO has several options for Russia's response if tactical nuclear weapons are used on its territory:

1. Immediately organize a negotiating communication with russia and discuss the terms of an honorable peace/surrender.

2. Give a powerful military response to russia but without the use of nuclear weapons.

3. Give a strong military response to russia using similar tactical nuclear weapons (full symmetrical response/limited nuclear response).

4. Give a powerful military response to russia with the use of strategic nuclear weapons (full-scale nuclear war).

The most adequate scenario today is a full symmetric/limited nuclear response scenario. In recent weeks, the West has grown up, and although it is afraid to be a part of the war, it has finally realized that with putin only force can stop him; he absorbs those who are weak using nuclear blackmail.

3. The russian invaders continue to violate international humanitarian law.

The cost of the victims of putin's aggression continues to grow. New tragic data were reported by juvenile prosecutors: as of March 18th, 109 children had died and more than 130 had been injured.

The largest number of victims is in Kyiv region. 55 children died here. The number of victims among minors is increasing in the following districts: Kharkiv - 34; Donetsk - 26; Chernihiv - 29; Mykolaiiv - 20; Zhytomyr - 15; Sumy - 14; Kherson - 14.

The UN Migration Agency estimates that about 6.5 million of Ukrainians have become internally displaced and 3.2 million have gone abroad due to the russia’s war.

439 educational institutions were damaged in the result of bombing and shelling, 63 of them were completely destroyed. The Donetsk (126), Kharkiv (77) and Mykolaiiv (39) regions suffered a lot. In the capital, the racists destroyed 35 schools.

The information is not final, as it is impossible to inspect the scene due to the continuation of hostilities.

Rocket and bomb strikes on Ukrainian cities continue. As we analysed in the previous review, such massive shelling cannot be explained by the aggressor’s excess and tragic mistakes as a result of the use of indiscriminate type ammunition. The only logical explanation is deliberate terrorism in order to break the spirit and will to victory of both the Ukrainian people and the top military and political leaders of the country.

Here are some (not all) examples of state terrorism by the russian invaders in recent days.

Since the beginning of the full-scale russian invasion, 222 people have died in Kyiv, including 60 civilians and four children. As a result of the shelling of the Vynohradar district in Kyiv Podilskyi district on Friday, a person was killed and 19 people were injured, including 4 children.

In the Luhansk region on March 18th as a result of shelling of Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, Pryvillia, Kreminna on March 18th about 54 sites were damaged, 4 people were killed, 10 people were wounded.

russian troops launched a missile strike on Kramatorsk, the Donetsk region, and it is currently known that 2 people were killed and 6 wounded.

According to preliminary information, two people were killed and three were injured in the shelling of the russian invaders in Avdiiivka, the Donetsk region, on March 18th.

4. Under attacks of the russian occupiers, the evacuation through humanitarian corridors goes ahead.

On March 18th, it was confirmed that 9 humanitarian corridors in the Donetsk and Sumy regions were to be organised.

In the Donetsk region, the corridor should run on the route Mariupol - Zaporizhzhia. Mariupol residents who managed to evacuate from the city will be transported from Berdiansk to Zaporizhzhia, and those who walk on foot will be helped in Manhush.

In the Sumy region, the corridors will operate: from Sumy to Poltava; from Trostianets, to Poltava.

In the Kharkiv region, it is planned to deliver humanitarian aid to the cities of Balakleia and Izium.

According to the Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko, 9,145 people were evacuated through humanitarian corridors on March 18th, including 4,972 residents of Mariupol, including 1,124 children, who went to Zaporizhzhia. Buses that arrived in Berdiansk from Zaporizhzhia took 500 people away. 4,173 people were evacuated from the Sumy region.

In addition, fuel was delivered to Berdiansk to refuel personal vehicles of Mariupol residents moving along the humanitarian corridor.

In the Kharkiv region, it was not possible to deliver humanitarian aid to the cities of Balakleia and Izium due to shelling by russian troops on the confirmed route.

5. The political and informational struggle over the content of the Ukrainian-russian negotiations continues.

russian president putin, as always, has begun to raise deadly rates, saying in a telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Ukraine is making “unrealistic” proposals in the talks.

Apparently, the russian dictator decided to play the role of a “bad” policeman, entrusting the role of “good” cop to the head of the russian delegation Vladimir Medinsky, who assures that the Moscow-Kyiv talks “managed to reconcile positions on Ukraine's neutral status.”

In Ukraine, as predicted by the Information Defence expert, the internal political struggle over the content of the agreements has already begun. Major political forces are still observers of professional/pseudo-professional discussions on social media.

The main focus of the uncompromising discussion is the neutral status of Ukraine, recognition of its territorial integrity, including the Crimea and Donbas, real guarantees of security for our country.

It will be extremely difficult to find points of contact and compromise within the country, given the current Ukrainian realities. However, this is a strict necessity to ensure the unity of the state in the face of the russian occupiers.

6. The Ukrainian government, business, and citizens demonstrate solidarity and consolidate their efforts to confront the enemy.

The government continues to radically change the conditions for doing business in Ukraine and reduce corruption risks. According to the Prime-Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal, the Government has decided to simplify all customs procedures as much as possible, the goal is to create the fastest customs in the world:  with “no paperwork at customs and tax codes”.

The Prime-Minister also has added that those who want to stay on the general system will pay only VAT, and such registration should take no more than 15 minutes. And those who just want to bring the goods to Ukraine without any customs clearance, must fill out a declaration in advance.

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that families who have accommodated people from the territories of hostilities or temporary occupation will be reimbursed for utilities costs.

The National Bank and the Individual Deposit Guarantee Fund support the President Zelenskyy’s initiative to introduce a 100% state guarantee on household deposits.

7. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Military aid to Ukraine continues to grow. Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova has said that part of the assistance provided by the United States to Ukraine has already crossed the border: “I will not reveal things that our enemy should not know. But when certain decisions are made and they are public, at this point some things are already crossing the border. In fact, it is a parallel process. This is not a package (aid - ed.), that will be used only now to purchase something”.

It seems that the strong success of the Ukrainian air defence in recent days is probably related to the additional supply of new air defence systems from the United States.

At the request of NATO, the Netherlands and Germany will supply Slovakia with American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems instead of its S-300 air defence systems, which are being transferred to Ukraine at the moment.

At the same time, russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow would not allow the transfer to Ukraine from other countries of S-300 air defence systems to protect against russian air strikes.

Political and diplomatic support for Ukraine continues. The European Commission’s opinion on Ukraine’s application for EU membership will be ready in a few months.

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote about this on Twitter after a conversation with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

“I had a substantive conversation with EU President Ursula von der Leyen. The EU opinion on Ukraine's application for EU membership will be prepared in a few months. The government and the EU have been instructed. Together we are moving towards our strategic goal,” Zelenskyy stated.

As reported, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in a conversation with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine’s European way has already started.

Financial aid is growing. Ukraine on Friday will receive 300 million euros in emergency funding from the European Union in support of 1.2 billion euros.

The amount of russian assets frozen by banks and other financial institutions in the Netherlands is 200 million euros.

The EU is beginning to realize the urgent need for an embargo on russian energy exports. The President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola has exhorted for a reduction of the European dependence on russian energy resources as soon as possible, as this is an indirect financing of russia's war.

However, the load capacity on the Ukrainian gas transportation system by russia's Gazprom is not declining and is more than 105 million cubic meters per day under the transit contract, according to European observers.

8. Provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.

Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv regional military administration, has stated that the russian occupiers inform their propagandists that they are distributing humanitarian aid to residents of the temporarily occupied territories of the Kharkiv region. “In some temporarily occupied territories, the russian occupiers are trying to create a positive image, distributing food to the cameras, etc.”

In the russian capital, the authorities staged a “holiday concert” in honour of the eighth anniversary of the illegal occupation of the Crimea to support of the war in Ukraine.

The propaganda media RIA Novosti reports that according to the russian Ministry of Interior Affairs in Moscow, more than 203,000 people are in Luzhniki, where the rally is being held: more than 95,000 at the stadium and more than 100,000 are near.

russia has decided to hold an alternative Paralympics from March 17 to 20 after they were not allowed to the real Paralympics in Beijing due to the attack on Ukraine.

russia's state TV network RT can no longer be watched in the UK after the regulator Ofcom revoked its license.

9. Sanctions against russia are intensifying, and more and more companies are leaving the russian trade market.

russia's banking and financial sector is beginning to decrease to the level of the 1990s. Western banks with the largest assets in russia, which manage 57.2 billion dollars in russia, are considering ways to carefully exit the market of the country. This was reported by the Financial Times.

Banks with the largest assets are: Société Générale: 15 thousand employees, 18 billion dollars assets in russia, 3.1 million customers and 200 branches; Raiffeisen: 9.4 thousand employees, 22.9 billion dollars assets in russia, 4.2 million customers and 132 branches; UniCredit: 4,000 employees, $ 7.4 billion assets in russia, 2 million customers and 70 branches; Citigroup: 3,000 employees, $ 8.9 billion assets in russia, 0.5 million customers and 15 branches.

Banks with the highest risks in russia

FT

Leaders of Western banking groups are considering three scenarios for the future of their banks, but it is difficult to understand what each option will mean for business.

First. Selling assets is considered the best case scenario for banks, as it can protect them from large financial losses. However, finding a buyer on acceptable terms against the background of sanctions and financial isolation will be extremely difficult.

Second. A complete closure means thousands of people will lose their jobs and the bank will lose thousands of corporate clients. Therefore, managers need to weigh all the consequences and complexity of the group's departure from the country.

Third. Nationalization will save leaders from the problem of choice, but is seen only as a "critical scenario." This option will be negatively perceived by shareholders.

The situation with the implementation of the state budget of russia is deteriorating. The Ministry of Finance of russia proposes to sequester the budget, i.e. to reduce its expenditures in a number of areas by half a trillion rubles.

russia’s international isolation continues. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola announced on Friday that russian and Belarusian diplomats were barred from entering parliament.

American companies Halliburton and Schlumberger have taken steps to leave the russian market. The first company is completely shutting down, and the second is suspending further investment and implementation of technology.

The American film studio Paramount suspends its activities in russia and donates $ 1 million to humanitarian aid.

Technology corporation LG Electronics stops all deliveries to russia.

Athletes from russia and Belarus were completely suspended from the World Championships, the European Championships and the Diamond League.

Torrent platform RuTracker has opposed russia's war in Ukraine and will block access for users from russia.