14:28 18.03.2022

Author IHOR ZHDANOV

Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 18th, 2022

16 min read
Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 18th, 2022

Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, morning of March 18th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The russian occupiers have not achieved success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as of March 18th, the enemy has not achieved any of the strategic goals of the offensive operation. The operational pause, which was significantly prolonged, indicates that the russian-Ukrainian war has got to a positional stage.

Also yesterday, it became clear that the russian aggressors, continuing to restrain the Kyiv group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, transferred their main efforts to the East of Ukraine in the area of the environmental protection operation and to Mariupol.

Fierce fighting is taking place in these areas, especially in the Rubizhne, Lysychansk, and Severodonetsk districts. The enemy, not counting its losses and losses among peaceful Ukrainian citizens, is trying to reach administrative borders and capture Mariupol.

Information Defence experts believe that such inadequate actions are related to the russian-Ukrainian talks, in which the enemy is trying to secure good treaty positions, i.e. to seize the entire territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to put pressure on Ukraine to recognise the so-called "DPR" (“ДНР”) and "LPR" (“ЛНР”).

The continuous attacks of Mariupol are connected with the intentions of the russian aggressor to create a land corridor to the occupied Crimea, to carry out a maritime economic blockade of our country and to provide water supply through the northern canal. In addition, the occupation of Mariupol by russian occupation forces has become for putin a kind of symbol of victory in the disordered and sick mind of the russian dictator.

Also, in the near future, it is unlikely there will be a massive offensive attack on Kyiv.

First, the enemy lost the factor of suddenness. The Ukrainian command drew up reserves to the capital, equipped positions and methodically "knocked out" the occupiers.

Second, according to various estimates, the group of russians near and in Kyiv does not exceed in number, and may be inferior to the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that are located in the area of Kyiv. Moreover, to conduct offensive hostilities, as it is known, it is necessary to triple, and preferably, to enlarge in five times the advantage of the attacker’s combatants.

Third, the number of occupying troops concentrated near the capital does not allow such a large city as Kyiv to be attacked. The russian aggressor cannot even physically block or surround it. During World War II, over a million soldiers were involved in the attacks on both Stalingrad and Berlin.

The enemy continues to lose manpower and its equipment. The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 18.03 were approximately: personnel (combatants) - about 14,200 people, tanks - 450 units, armored combat vehicles - 1448 units, artillery systems - 205 units, MLRS - 72 units, air defense - 43 units, aircraft - 93 units, helicopters - 112 units, motor vehicles - 879 units, ships / boats - 3 units, fuel tanks - 60, UAVs operational and tactical level, special equipment - 11.

On Thursday, Ukraine's Air Defence Forces hit 14 air targets of the russian occupiers: 7 planes, and 1 helicopter.

In in the war confrontations with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the commander of the Airborne Regiment from Kostroma, Colonel Sergei Suharyov was killed.

The General Staff informed that during the clash, the occupiers shamefully fled from the soldiers of the 128th Separate Mountain Infantry Brigade of Transcarpathia (the Zakarpattia region), dropping weapons and equipment. Ukraine received trophies: BMP-1 and towed anti-tank gun MT-12 "Rapira". Everything is intact and suitable for combat missions.

In the Chernihiv region, Ukrainian defenders defeated a group of russian invaders, seized the Hurricane multiple rocket launcher, and shot down another.

Given that the occupiers have almost exhausted all reserves, the command of the armed forces of the russian federation continues to take measures to replenish combatants losses at the expense of foreigners. According to available information, the russian occupiers have already recruited about 1,000 volunteers from the so-called army of Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah.

Because the enemy used almost the entire set of cruise missiles "Kaliber" and operational and tactical missile systems "Iskander" during the first twenty days of the operation, the invader continues to launch missile and bomb strikes on infrastructure and housing neighbourhoods of large cities using indiscriminate weapons.

2. The russian occupiers continue to violate international humanitarian law.

Unfortunately, the horrific statistics of killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians as a result of the russian aggressor's attacks are worsening every day. According to the Office of the Prosecutor General, 108 children died in the hands of the russian occupiers during the war in Ukraine. In addition to the dead, as of the morning of March 17th, more than 120 children were injured as a result of enemy shelling and rocket attacks.

As of night of March 18th, the russian occupiers carried out air strikes on the Lviv, Sumy, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Mykolaiiv regions, and in several regions the 23rd night of the war passed relatively calmly.

Here are just a few examples of russian occupiers shelling peaceful Ukrainian cities.

Mariupol Deputy Mayor Serhii Orlov believes that the city is currently 80-90% destroyed, the death toll has exceeded 2,300 people, but many people are still trapped, so the death toll could be much higher. On average, russians drop from 50 to 100 air bombs per day on Mariupol.

Fortunately, the building of the Mariupol Theater withstood the impact of a high-powered air bomb and protected the lives of people hiding in the bomb shelter, said Ombudsman Liudmyla Denysova.

During the past 24 hours, the russian occupiers fired 49 times on Kharkiv. Because of the shelling of the city of Merefa in the Kharkiv region, 21 people were killed and 25 others were injured.

As a result of the shelling of Chernihiv by russian occupation forces on March 16th, 53 people died. A two-year-old child was killed and four others were injured in heavy artillery fire in the village of Novi Petrivtsi in the Kyiv region. Because of shelling by russian troops in Kyiv's Sviatoshynskyi district, a warehouse caught fire, two cars also burned, and at least two people were killed.

According to Information Defence experts, such massive shelling of peaceful Ukrainian cities is due to several factors. Recently, the russian occupiers have switched to the use of obsolete munitions of indiscriminate action, which can not be accurately aimed at military infrastructure, and the coordinates of these objects are not always accurate, so civilians may suffer.

But such circumstances cannot explain the massive shelling of Kharkiv at the beginning of the war, the continuous shelling of Mariupol, the use of rocket-propelled grenade launchers, artillery, banned by international conventions phosphate and cluster munitions, heavy unmanned bombs on objects marked with the label.

The only explanation in these cases can be a deliberate terrorism against peaceful cities in order to break the spirit and will of Ukrainians, to force the top military and political leaders to capitulate.

But as we know from the experience of World War II, no nation capitulated as a result of massive air strikes: neither the British nor the Germans. Ukrainians will not give up either, on the contrary, our will to win will only grow.

3. Under attacks of the russian occupiers, the evacuation through humanitarian corridors goes ahead.

On March 17th, 9 humanitarian corridors were confirmed for the evacuation of people, as well as for the delivery of food and medicine to the captured cities: from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia; from Borodianka to Zhytomyr; from Shevchenkove to Brovary. Humanitarian aid for the delivery of food and medicine to Hostomel, Bucha, Semypolky, Markivtsi, Opanasov; from Kharkiv to Vovchansk.

On Thursday, out of the nine planned humanitarian corridors, only the corridor for the delivery of humanitarian aid to Kharkiv did not work.

Today, 3,810 people managed to escape through humanitarian corridors. This was announced by Deputy Chief of The Office of The President of Ukraine Kyrylo Tymoshenko. He noted that two thousand people were able to leave Mariupol in almost 800 private cars, and people are leaving the city on foot. Another 1,810 people were evacuated from Vorzel, Bucha, Hostomel, Shevchenkove, and Borodianka.

Also, 36 tons of humanitarian aid in the form of food and medicine were delivered to the cities of Hostomel, Bucha, the villages of Semypolky, Markivka, and Opanasov.

During the evacuation, russian forces fired on an evacuation bus from Popasna, but fortunately no one was killed. Two policemen were killed by enemy shelling during the evacuation of people in the Kyiv region.

4. Ukrainian-russian negotiations.

The positions of the parties in the Ukrainian-russian discussions were clearly outlined. However, their analysis demonstrates that Ukraine and russia take diametrically opposed positions and, according to available information, are still far from signing any documents.

The Ukrainian side wants to prescribe in the peace agreement a specific mechanism that will guarantee its security in the future. According to Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to the Head of the President's Office, Ukraine wants to end this war with a new strong coalition so that it will stop Russia if it wants to attack again.

president putin had a telephone conversation with the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and told him what the russian side is currently demanding from Ukraine in the talks.

According to him, the main demand of the Kremlin is "neutrality" of Ukraine and rejection of the Euro-Atlantic course. russia continues to talk about "disarming Ukraine so that it cannot pose a threat to russia," "protecting the russian language," and "denazification."

Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the russian president, said that russia and Ukraine had not yet come close to signing any agreement. He has also said that Russia "will not be able to take into account" and will not comply with the decision of the UN International Court of Justice of March 16th, according to which Russia must immediately cease hostilities in Ukraine.

This position of Moscow testifies to the complete destruction of the security system, which was built after the World War II, to the complete disregard of the role of the UN by russia - a permanent member of the Security Council, which has the right to veto its decision.

Thus, according to Information Defence experts, the issue of building a new architecture of world and European security, securing Ukraine's place in it is not only of a special importance now, but also of extra importance for the future.

5. The Ukrainian government, business, and citizens are demonstrating solidarity and consolidating their efforts to confront the enemy.

Ukrainian society and government demonstrate unity and cohesion in the fight against the enemy. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the wounded in the hospital who came under fire from the occupiers during the evacuation from Vorzel, in particular the Vlasenko family. The family moved to the suburbs of Kyiv from the Crimea in 2014 after the russian occupation of the peninsula because they did not want to acquire russian citizenship.

The Minister of Agrarian Policy Roman Leschenko stated that the situation with food supply remained under control, and the stocks we had would be enough for a year. According to Leschenko, Ukraine now has a sufficient food supply: wheat stocks for two years, oil stocks for five years, and corn stocks for 1.5 years.

The conditions for doing business in Ukraine are significantly improving. During martial law, businesses will be able to get a loan at 0% per annum in the amount of up to UAH 60 million, and the number of permits for entrepreneurs will be reduced from 600 to 20 documents.

Ukraine has set up a National Information Bureau to collect and systematise information on Ukrainians who died, went missing or were taken prisoner, as well as on prisoners and dead invaders.

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy continued his speeches in the parliaments of the world's leading countries. At the same time, in his speech to the German Bundestag on March 17th, there were many critical remarks about the actions of the German authorities. Thus, he believes that Germany is contributing to the new wall in Europe, when it slows down Ukraine's accession to European institutions.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Berlin would continue to support Ukraine, but excluded any form of NATO military intervention.

Two parliaments of NATO member states have already confirmed the need to establish a no-fly zone.

The Lithuanian Seimas has called on the United Nations to take immediate steps to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine to reduce civilian casualties.

The Latvian Seimas has adopted a decision calling on UN countries to immediately agree on measures to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine to save human lives.

The United States is putting pressure on China to ensure its neutrality in the russian-Ukrainian war. On Friday, the US President Joe Biden is having a telephone conversation with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and plans to warn him of the consequences of China's support for the war against Ukraine.

The Biden Administration has publicly and privately warned that Beijing would face dire consequences if it provides material support to putin's war against Ukraine.

Information Defence experts noted that China's public position has changed over the past two days.

For example, Chinese high-ranking officials stressed that China is committed to the principle of territorial integrity and sovereignty of all countries, including Ukraine.

7. Provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.

The Defence Ministry's intelligence agency informs that some Syrian mercenaries consider russia's involvement in the war to be a chance for further desertion and illegal migration to EU countries.

Proposals for adoption of orphans rescued from hostilities have begun to spread through the network.

Such information is based on a call for "quick adoption", but the Centre for Counteracting Disinformation said that such proposals were fakes. "We warn you: this is a fake! It is designed to make those who are willing to take a child, at best - a victim of fraud, at worst - violators of Ukrainian law," – it is said in the statement.

Such attempts at "adoption" could result in a criminal case for kidnapping and a term of imprisonment from 5 to 12 years.

russia's Defence Ministry has again fantasised about "American biolabs in Ukraine" and decided that four years ago there was a leak that killed 70 people in the russian-occupied part of the Donbas area.

The russian military said that Kherson Biolaboratory had urgently destroyed documents, allegedly due to “concealment of information about an outbreak of heartworm disease that broke out in 2018 in Kherson, a disease caused by mosquitos.”

A number of Ukrainian online media outlets were hacked from the russian federation on Thursday. In particular, the symbols banned in Ukraine and used by the occupiers were placed on them.

8. Sanctions against russia are intensifying, and more and more companies are leaving the russian trade market.

The rating agency S&P downgraded russia to CC from CCC-. russia's problems with payments are related to international sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine, the agency notes. Sanctions have reduced the country's available foreign exchange reserves and limited its access to the global financial system.

However, russia's default did not happen. The Ministry of Finance of russia informs that the payment order for the payment of coupon income on bonds of foreign bonds of russia with maturities in 2023 and 2043 in the total amount of 117.2 million dollars, sent to a foreign correspondent bank, was provided.

The Swiss Bankers' Association (SBA) estimates that banks hold between 150 and 200 billion Swiss francs ($ 213 billion) in offshore accounts of russian customers.

This indicates that the scale of the business of rich russians with banks in Switzerland, the world's largest centre of offshore enrichment, is much broader than the balance sheet risks that some of its financial firms have begun to detail.

Western democracies continue to announce new sanctions against russia.

Australia has announced sanctions against russian oligarchs Viktor Vekselberg and Oleg Deripaska, and New Zealand has imposed sanctions on russian president putin and a number of russian officials. Japan is imposing sanctions on 15 russians, as well as 9 companies and organisations.

All russian representatives lost their powers in the Danube Commission after it passed a resolution on Thursday on russia's military aggression against Ukraine, which violates the basic principles of the Convention on the Regime of Navigation on the Danube.

The European Space Agency (ESA) has refused to cooperate with Roscosmos in developing the ExoMars mission due to the russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Central Bank of India is conducting initial consultations on an agreement with russia on settlements in rubles and rupees. This will allow trade with russia after the sanctions have limited the mechanisms of international payments.

After the expiration of the current contract for the purchase of gas through the Yamal gas pipeline in December, Poland will stop buying gas from russia.

The economic situation in russia is deteriorating, and the vast majority of Western companies are leaving the russian trade market.

According to Russia's Forbes, citing a survey by the NAFI think tank, 70% of russians are worried about the current socio-economic situation. Only 30% of russians surveyed said they managed to maintain emotional balance and quell anxiety due to the current socio-economic situation.

Prices for iPhone in russia over the past three weeks rose by 24-34%, for tablets - by 13-34%, for Apple laptops - by 46-142%.

The title sponsor of Chelsea FC is the telecommunications company Three, which has suspended cooperation with the club's owner Roman Abramovich due to sanctions, and wants its logo removed from the playing kit as soon as possible.

Planes of the largest cargo carrier in russia "Volga-Dnipro " completely stopped flights. European regulators have banned flights of British and German airlines owned by the group's founder Alexei Isaykin.

One of the world leaders in the field of printing technology and document management Xerox has suspended supplies to russia.

German manufacturer of components for freight transport SAF-Holland stopped investing in a new production unit in russia.

The American biopharmaceutical company AbbVie has joined the sanctions against russia and stopped the supply of Botox and fillers used in aesthetic medicine.

Rosaviatsia has issued a certificate to Aeroflot's aircraft maintenance and repair provider for the maintenance of Boeing and Airbus aircraft.

By refusing to stop doing business in russia, Nestle is allowing russia to continue its aggressive war in Europe. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba stressed that Nestle's refusal to leave russia causes long-term damage to the company's reputation, which is proportional to the huge scale of Moscow's war crimes in Ukraine.

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