10:25 19.08.2021

Poll of the Social Monitoring Center on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of Ukraine's independence

5 min read
Poll of the Social Monitoring Center on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of Ukraine's independence

Presenting the results of the national survey of the adult population during August 11-16, 2021. Sample population – 2502 respondents, data collection method – face-to-face interview at the respondent’s residence, standard deviation: 1.2-2.0%. For the analysis, the following grouping of oblasts by macro-regions was used: West (Volyn, Lviv, Rivne, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi oblasts), Centre (Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytsky, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Sumy oblasts), East (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv oblasts), Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk oblast, where the survey was conducted only in the government controlled territories), and South (Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson oblasts).

If the referendum on the declaration of Ukraine’s independence took place today, 77.8% would support the declaration of independence (among those who would participate in such a referendum, 85.5% would vote for independence), 13.2%[1] would vote against (more than 9% would not participate in the referendum). (https://smc.org.ua/30-rokiv-nezalezhnosti-ukrayiny-2936/) Significant regional differences were recorded: 92.8% of the West residents would support independence, in the Centre - 84.2%, in the East - 66, 7%, South - 59.2%, Donbas - 53.9%. The level of conditional voting for independence decreases with age: from 86.5% among 18-29-year-olds to 70.1% among those who are over 60 years of age.

To assess the current situation in Ukraine based on the 30-year history of independence, the respondents were offered several statements with which they had to express complete or partial agreement, complete or partial disagreement. Most statements had a positive outlook. According to the results, it can be concluded that the society has a high level of dissatisfaction with the current situation and expresses critical assessments of all authorities’ activities during the independence period. 43.5% respondents agreed ("completely" or "rather") with the statement "Ukraine today is a country of great opportunities for everyone", and 50.3% disagreed with this statement. 42.4% agreed with the statement “Conditions of free choice of activity and own path created in Ukraine” (51.3% disagreed). Almost a third (31.2%) agreed with the statement "Ukrainian society is becoming more just" (60.6% disagreed). Almost three-quarters of respondents (74.2%) disagree with the statement: "In Ukraine, an unfair division into poor and rich has gradually formed and consolidated," and one in five (20.8%) disagrees with this statement. According to public opinion, corruption and bribery is no decreasing in Ukraine: only 15.2% to some extent agreed with the statement “There is less corruption and bribery in Ukraine”, and 78.2% disagreed. Respondents also mostly disagreed with the statement: "The activities of the Ukrainian authorities are becoming more transparent and accountable" – 23% agreed, and 68% disagreed. Another statement on the state support and protection "The state provides a sufficient level of social support and protection to those citizens who need it" was supported by 18.9%, and 74.3% disagreed with it. More than three quarters (76.9%) believe that a new layer of "people in power" has been formed in Ukraine – those, who care not about the social needs, but their own interests and enrichment at the expense of the state budget, compared to 16% who do not support this statement.

Thus, according to the estimates, Ukraine today is not a fair country with a division into rich and poor, high levels of corruption, non-transparent government, which does not care for the society, but provides sufficient opportunities for freedom of choice, especially for younger generations.

None of the generations in Ukraine has the feeling of a "lost generation".

Thirty years after the declaration of independence, 55% of respondents consider Ukraine a genuinely independent country, while 34% hold the opposite opinion. Among the youngest respondents aged 18-29 years, almost 66% consider Ukraine independent, and nearly 45% among the oldest respondents over the age of 70. Among residents of the West, 79.5% consider Ukraine an independent state now, after 30 years of independence, but among residents of the East, South and Donbas, this figure is almost twice as low (37-40%).[2]

42.4% of Ukrainians believe that they and their families have benefited more from Ukraine's independence, and 32% believe that they and their families have lost more. It should be noted that a quarter of respondents were undecisive (25.4%). The feeling of winning is inherent in the West and Centre. However, among the East, South, and Donbas residents, the dominant assessment is "lost more" (40-50%, provided that 30% refrained from answering). Analysis of this assessment in the context of age cohorts and regions shows that the younger generation of 18-29-year-olds mainly chose the answer about winning, except for young people from the South.

 

The results obtained indicate a relatively high level of support for Ukraine's independence, but demonstrate critical assessments of the present state of affairs and actions of the authorities, as well as the high level of regional differences in assessments, opinions and views.

 

 

 

[1] For comparison: according to a similar poll in August of 2020, 71.7% of respondents would support the declaration of independence, 12.2% would vote against it.

[2] According to the results of another national survey conducted by the Social Monitoring Center on August 2-11, 2021, a sample of 3011 respondents.

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