On Wednesday, October 7, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency held a press conference on the topic: "Teletrade: what awaits the Ukrainian economy in the case of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic?". The press conference was attended by Serhiy Rodler, an analyst at the international financial company Teletrade, Volodymyr Koval, a financial and economic analyst, PhD in Economics, and Maksym Oryshchak, a financial analyst at the Center for Exchange Technologies.

Experts told which sectors of the economy will be affected by the new quarantine restrictions,  discussed the role of small business in stabilizing the country's economy, advised how to prepare for possible quarantine restrictions, and predicted how much gas and electricity tariffs will grow by the end of the year.

"We, like the rest of the world, are going through difficult times because of COVID-19. This affects, first of all, the industrial sector, which fell by 9% from January to August. Such decline in the current situation is absolutely normal, I would even say that Ukraine shows very good financial indicators, compared to world leaders. For comparison, the index of industrial production in Japan fell by 13.3%, Britain - by 7.8%, the EU - by 7.7%. The main reason of decline is the "pandemic". Borders have been closed or restricted in many countries. Many countries have also taken restrictive measures in trade," said Maksym Oryshchak, a financial analyst at the Center for Exchange Technologies.

A key factor in determining the fate of small business, the speakers called the introduction of strict restrictions in connection with the expected second wave of the pandemic this fall. At the same time, experts are confident that this will not happen until the end of the local elections.

"It's a disaster for small and medium-sized businesses. Entrepreneurs who managed to keep their business after the spring quarantine have exhausted their financial stability. And here it is worth asking the question, what about the state? Where is the financial aid? And answering this question, we are covered by a wave of pessimism. The budget fund, amounting to UAH 65 billion, formed to fight the epidemic, in fact, went to "large-scale construction", only the construction of roads cost about UAH 35 billion. This, of course, will bring some help to the economy, but in the medium term, " said financial and economic analyst Volodymyr Koval.

Such disappointing forecasts will affect the unemployment rate this year. In the event of a fall in the industry, experts predict a sharp decline in jobs. Analyst of the international financial company Teletrade Sergei Rodler gave a forecast for next year - "Starting in 2021, the government plans an average annual GDP growth of 4.6% in the coming years. The revised macro forecast envisages an increase in the minimum wage in 2021 to UAH 6.25 thousand (in two stages - to UAH 6 thousand from the beginning of 2021 and to UAH 6.5 thousand from July 1), and in 2022 - to UAH 6.7 thousand UAH and up to 7,176 thousand UAH in 2023. According to the ministry's expectations, the nominal average monthly salary will be UAH 13.6 thousand next year and UAH 15.4 thousand in 2022. At the same time, unemployment will be 9.2% of the working population next year and 8.5% in a year. "

As for the growth of gas and electricity tariffs, Maksym Oryshchak, a financial analyst at the Center for Exchange Technologies, predicts their growth:

"The Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine announces that in October prices will remain the same due to the difficult situation in the country and in the world as a whole. But, it is necessary to understand that sooner or later utility bills will rise - it is inevitable and most likely it will happen traditionally closer to winter. Electricity tariffs in Ukraine have not been revised since 2017 (consumption up to 100 kW = UAH 0.9 / kW, consumption above 100 kW = UAH 1.68 / kW) and it doesen't correspond to market prices. Now it is the lowest tariff among European countries. Most likely, the IMF will tell Kyiv that we need to raise electricity tariffs if we want to get a tranche. Anyway, we had a similar situation with the price of natural gas. If this happens, the market tariff will not be UAH 0.9 or even UAH 1.68, but may jump by more than UAH 2 / kW. Now about gas tariffs. Here, prices have risen by 45% over the month (1 cubic meter = 4.7 UAH) and this, according to my forecasts, is not the limit. The fact is that the price increase is due to the fact that the market enters the season of high prices with the approach of the heating season. This indirectly indicates that the rise will continue. Moreover, since June, gas on the world market has grown by 75%.»

Summing up, the experts agreed that a number of reforms are needed for the accelerated development of Ukraine, which will increase the country's investment attractiveness. "We need to help small and medium-sized businesses, because we, like the whole world, have spent a long time in quarantine, and our entrepreneurs have not received proper assistance from the state. Our businessmen need state guarantees that they will be supported by the state. levels, rather than turn away from them, as was the case during the quarantine period. It is also necessary to simplify the work of government agencies, carry out tax reform, judicial reform, medical and then, perhaps, we will achieve investment attractiveness and foreign investors will come to the country, not only in the financial sector to buy IGLBs, but also in the real economy, which is so important for us ", - summed up the financial analyst of Teletrade Sergey Rodler.