Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Information Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of the past day of May 6th, based on an analysis of open sources.

PLEASE NOTE! The first review was published on February 26th. All experts of the Information Defence of Ukraine project work free of charge, on a volunteer basis. We need your help. Each of your charitable donations is important to us. Your help in UAH can be transferred to the Oschadbank card: 5304 0999 9952 1978, Beneficiary name: Ihor Zhdanov. Your help in US dollars can be transferred to the account: IBAN number: UA513226690000026207001378162; Name of bank: Acc. 04-095-334 PJSC “State Savings Bank of Ukraine”, Hospitalna str., 12 G, Kiyv, Ukraine; SWIFT: COSB UA UK KIE. Beneficiary name: Ihor Zhdanov (Ігор Олександрович Жданов). For more information about our team, see the link in the end of this review.

 

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine heroically restrain the enemy's attacks in the decisive battle for the Donbas.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the Slobozhanskyi direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine regained control over the settlements of Oleksandrivka, Fedorivka, Ukraiinka, Shestakovo, Peremoha and a part of the village of Cherkaski Tyshky.

In the Donetsk and Tavriia directions, in order to restrain the actions of the Ukrainian units, the enemy fires along the entire line of the contact border area. Air strikes and missile strikes continue.

In the Lyman direction, the enemy carried out assault operations in the direction of the village of Shandryholove. The enemy tried to establish control over the settlements of Rubizhne and Voievodivka in the Severodonetsk direction, but was unsuccessful. In the Popasnyanskyi direction, the enemy carried out assault operations in the direction of the settlement of Nyzhnie.

In Mariupol, the enemy focused its efforts on blocking and defeating the units of Ukrainian defenders in the Azovstal area. The occupiers conducted reconnaissance by fighting in the direction of the settlement of Prechystivka, they were unsuccessful and retreated.

In the Pivdennyi Buh direction, the enemy did not conduct active offensive operations, providing fire damage on the positions of the Ukrainian troops in some areas. The enemy focused their efforts on maintaining the occupied frontiers, replenishing ammunition and engineering their equipment positions.

The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to May 6 were: approximately 24,900 (+200) combatants were eliminated, tanks - 1,110 (+8) units, armoured combat vehicles - 2,686 (+35) units, artillery systems - 502 (+3) units, MLRS - 171 (+2) units, air defence - 83 (+0) units, aircraft - 199 (+3) units, helicopters - 155 (+0) units, motor vehicles and tank trucks - 1 926 (+19) units, ships / boats - 11 (+1) units, UAVs of operational and tactical level - 324 (+12), special equipment - 38 +0), cruise missiles - 90 (+1).

The Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the modern missile frigate of the Black Sea Fleet “Admiral Makarov” with “Neptune” missiles.

Up to 800 wounded and up to 200 bodies of dead russian servicemen are being held in the psychiatric hospital in the village of Malotokmatskyi, in the Rostov region, which was partially handed over to the russian Armed Forces.

In the Kharkiv region, 11 russian snipers were captured during a special SBU (The Security Service of Ukraine) operation. The detainees were a part of the so-called “115th Regiment of the DNR”, which fired on Ukrainian positions.

2. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.

Senior US officials in the NYT said that the United States had provided intelligence to Ukraine, which helped strike the russian cruiser “Moscow” - the flagship of the russian Black Sea Fleet.

The NYT writes that immediately after the strike, representatives of the Biden administration "scrupulously kept silent", refusing to confirm even the fact of the task of striking at "Moscow". But in the recent days, the US officials have confirmed that the US intelligence data was provided to Ukraine a few hours before the launch of the Neptune missiles. They declined to elaborate.

The United States believes that russia has failed to implement its "difficult" plan to seize Ukraine due to the lack of trained soldiers and logistical miscalculations.

This was reported by the U.S. Army Chief of Staff James McConville and the U.S. Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth in a joint statement of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee during a review of defense finance for 2023 and the Defense for the Future Program.

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, in the occupied city of Sorokine in the Luhansk region, the process of issuing "passports of the Luhansk People's Republic" for the Ukrainian citizens displaced from the recently occupied territories has begun.

People deprived of homes, property and money are forced to accept these conditions, because that is the only way to get money, food, and medical care.

The HUR (The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine) also reports that putin continues to send conscripts to the war in Ukraine. Due to heavy losses at the front, the occupiers are trying to urgently replenish their reserves of "manpower". Despite repeated statements by the kremlin about the inadmissibility of involving conscripts in the war, such cases are becoming more frequent.

3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing mass genocide of Ukrainians.

International and national investigation into the genocide of the russian occupiers against Ukrainians.

Reuters journalists conducted their own investigation in Bucha and found that the city was occupied by fighters of the Rosguard Regiment “Vityaz” and paratroopers from Pskov. In the three weeks since Bucha's de-occupation by the Ukrainian military, Reuters interviewed 90 witnesses, inspected crime scenes and found several personal belongings of the russian occupiers.

For the first time, this investigation has publicly established the involvement of  the "Pskov paratroopers" and the "Kadyrovtsy" in atrocities and war crimes committed by the russian occupiers against the unarmed civilian population in the Kyiv region.

The russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. As of the morning of May 6th, at least 631 children were injured in Ukraine as a result of the armed aggression of the russian federation: 223 children were killed and more than 408 children were injured.

May 5th, due to the shelling of the regional landscape park "Feldman Ecopark" in the village Lisne, the Kharkiv district, the Kharkiv region, a 15-year-old volunteer boy who helped feed and evacuate animals died.

On May 5th, it became known that on April 23rd, as a result of the bombing of the village of Novoselivka, the Pokrovskyi district, the Donetsk region, a 17-year-old boy died.

Children suffered mostly in the following regions: the Donetsk region- 139, the Kyiv region - 116, the Kharkiv region - 95, the Chernihiv region - 68, the Kherson region - 46, the Mykolaiiv region - 44, the Luhansk region - 37, the Zaporizhzhia region- 27, the Sumy region - 17, the Zhytomyr region - 15. In Kyiv City, 16 children were injured.

The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. On the night of May 6th, russian troops fired heavily at the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, less intensely in Kharkiv; in the Dnipropetrovsk region, there was a missile strike on the Pokrovskyi community and shelling of two villages; and on the evening of May 5th, there was a missile strike on Ochakov in the Mykolaiiv region.

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, a rocket landed in the Pokrovskyi community. Also, there was shelling from "Grads" on two villages in Zelenodolska and Shyrokovska communities. There were no casualties.

The Kharkiv region: a night with isolated shelling on the outskirts of Kharkiv. No one was injured. During the day, Saltivka was also shelled - 5 civilians were wounded and Rozova was shelled, 1 person was killed.

The Luhansk region: 16 times russians opened fire on residential neighbourhoods and infrastructure. 12 houses, an electric substation, a complex of commercial buildings were damaged. 7 houses were destroyed in Rubizhne, 2 - in Novodruzhesk. There are destructions in Lysychansk, Orikhovo, Hirske, and Popasna. Two peopke were killed.

The Donetsk region: in Kramatorsk, on May 5th, 32 high-rise buildings were severely damaged and 25 people were injured. In addition to residential areas, the russian army is actively attacking the city’s industrial facilities with missiles (shelling at night and in the morning). russians do not stop shelling the Avdiyivka Coke Plant.

They also shelled the village of New York, and from 5 a.m. on May 6th, they intensified shelling of the Svitlodar community .

The Mykolaiiv region: on Thursday after 4 pm, there was an "arrival" of rocket fire in Ochakiv on infrastructure facilities. Five inhabitants of the Mykolaiiv area were wounded as a result of attacks of the russian occupiers.

4. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.

In the evening of May 5th, almost 500 more Ukrainians were deported from Mariupol and Azovstal.

UN Secretary-General António  Guterres said that the third stage of evacuation of civilians began on May 6th at the Azovstal plant.

The russian troops violated the "ceasefire" regime in Mariupol and fired on an evacuation vehicle that was going to pick up civilians from Azovstal on May 6th: a soldier was killed and six wounded. This was reported by the Azov Regiment in the Telegram.

Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk has told Telegram that “another exchange of prisoners has taken place. 41 people were returned, including 11 women. 28 military and 13 civilians are returning home."

5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to russian aggression.

Economic losses due to russian aggression. At this moment, 70 vessels are blocked in Ukrainian seaports, as it is impossible to navigate, and 6 of them, which operate under foreign flags, are in Mariupol.

Due to the destruction of the Kremenchuh refinery by russian troops, it will not be able to work until the end of the year. The destruction of the Kremenchuh refinery, which was the main producer of fuel in Ukraine, as well as a number of large oil depots led to a shortage of fuel at gas stations. The situation should be resolved within a few weeks until the market switches to supplies from the EU.

The damage to the infrastructure of the village of Moshchun in the Bucha district in the Kyiv region, which is called an outpost on the enemy's way to Kyiv, exceeds UAH 1.1 billion. This is stated in the assessment of the KSE Institute on the basis of data project RebuildUA from SmartFarming and Agro Courses.

The first signs of recovery and growth of the Ukrainian economy. During the sowing of 2022, Ukraine sowed 7.1 million hectares of land with the main agricultural crops, which is 49.3% of the planned 14.4 million hectares for the current season. This was reported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.

As of the beginning of May, more than 400 residential complexes are being built in Ukraine, 65 of them in Kyiv and another 45 in Odesa.

Construction was also resumed in Dnipro, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Kremenchuh, Cherkasy, and Uman. In the western regions, 245 housing estates are currently being built.

Restoration of infrastructure in de-occupied and war-affected areas. ATB retail chain plans to resume more than half a hundred temporarily closed stores in Kyiv region by the end of May

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political and social support of Ukraine. US President Joe Biden had a telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. They discussed both the military situation and the state of support for Ukraine. They agreed that Ukraine should continue to receive significant and ongoing support in exercising its legitimate right to self-defence.

Neither the United States nor Germany "will recognize any steps that run counter to Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and integrity and will consider them illegitimate."

The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia arrived in Kyiv on May 6th. Estonian Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets said the ministers arrived to demonstrate unwavering support for the Ukrainian people and discuss more ways in which the Baltic states can help Ukraine, which is fighting for its freedom and sovereignty, as well as for democratic values.

Flash polls Eurobarometer, 66% of EU residents agree that Ukraine should join the EU when it is ready - this idea is largely supported in all countries except Hungary (where 48% agree).

Most people agree that Ukraine should join the EU as soon as it is ready - in Portugal (87%), Estonia (83%), Lithuania (82%) and Poland (81%). At the same time, Luxembourg (38%), Greece (37%), and Hungary (36%) have the most disagreements.

Financial assistance to Ukraine. The Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Development of Poland have reached an agreement on the revocation of permits for all carriers engaged in international fuel transportation.

Military assistance to Ukraine. Germany has agreed to supply Ukraine with 7 self-propelled howitzers Panzerhaubitzen 2000. This was confirmed in Slovakia on Friday by Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht , according to Die World.

About two-thirds of respondents in EU countries approve funding for the purchase and supply of military equipment to Ukraine. This is evidenced by the results of the Flash survey Eurobarometer.

In particular, 67% of respondents approve of the purchase and supply of military equipment to Ukraine, including 33% fully approve and 34% are inclined to approve.

7. Statements, provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.

The chairman of the State Duma of Russia Vyacheslav Volodin assures that mobilisation in Russia is not expected and that a nuclear strike by russia is possible only as a response attack.

A spokesman for the russian president, Dmitry Peskov, told TASS that a broad celebration of Victory Day in Mariupol, a Ukrainian temporary occupied city, was impossible, and the russian delegation was not going there on May 9th.

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. The United Kingdom has imposed sanctions against the metallurgical and mining company Evraz, whose largest shareholder is a russian oligarch Roman Abramovich.

Japan will freeze the assets of another 140 russians and extend export restrictions to the russian military enterprises.

According to Bloomberg, the European Union has proposed to extend sanctions to Alina Kabaeva, a former gymnast who heads the National Media Group and which is closely associated with the russian president putin.

Oil and gas embargo. Ukraine calls on the European Union to immediately impose an embargo on the purchase of russian oil and to begin consideration of a ban on the purchase of gas. This was stated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba at a press conference in Kyiv with his colleagues from Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, European Truth reports .

A new package of EU sanctions against russia, including an embargo on crude oil imports, will do more harm to Hungary than russia. This is stated in a letter from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, according to Index .

Austria still opposes gas supplies from russia and calls this step a "red line".

Bulgaria will ask for an exemption from the oil embargo against russia, proposed by the European Commission under the sixth sanctions package.

According to the latest data The EU has proposed a revision of the oil embargo against russia, allowing Hungary and Slovakia to buy russian oil until the end of 2024, the Czech Republic - until June 2024. This was reported by Bloomberg.

Finland managed to reduce oil imports from russia immediately after the invasion of Ukraine began in late February.

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The Open Policy Foundation (hereinafter - the Foundation, http://openpolicy.org.ua) is a well-known public organisation that conducts analytical research and information campaigns, in particular on Ukrainian and foreign policy, protection of the rights of young people from the temporarily occupied territories to receive higher education in Ukraine.

With the beginning of the russian aggression, the Foundation's experts, together with other leading Ukrainian analysts, have joined a team to implement the Information Defence of Ukraine project. Experts of the project prepare daily reviews of the military-political situation in Ukraine in Ukrainian, English, and Russian, the first review was released on February 26th, moderate the telegram channel “Information Defence of Ukraine”, https://t.me/info_defense_ua.

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