10:34 06.05.2022

Author IHOR ZHDANOV

Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of May 5th

16 min read
Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of May 5th

Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Information Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of the past day of May 5th, based on an analysis of open sources.

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The first review was published on February 26th. All experts of the Information Defence of Ukraine project work free of charge, on a volunteer basis. We need your help. Each of your charitable donations is important to us.

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1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine heroically restrain the enemy's attacks in the decisive battle for the Donbas.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the russian troops are trying to increase the pace of the offensive attacks in Eastern Ukraine in order to come as close as possible to the administrative borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as to strengthen an offensive attack in the Zaporizhzhia and Kryvyi Rih areas.

In the Donetsk direction, the main efforts of the enemy are focused on conducting an offensive attack on the settlements of Lyman, Orikhove, Popasna, Velyka Novosilka, Huliaipole, Komyshuvakha, and Orikhiv.

During the day, in the Lyman direction, the enemy made unsuccessful attempts to gain a foothold in the village of Oleksandrivka.

In the Severodonetskyi direction, the occupiers launched an offensive attack in the direction of the settlement of Voievodivka, but were unsuccessful.

In the Popasnianskyi direction, the enemy tried to expand control over the settlement of Orikhove, but was unsuccessful.

Blockades and attempts to destroy the Ukrainian units continue in the Azovstal district in Mariupol. In some areas, with the support of aircraft, the enemy resumed the offensive attack in order to take control of the plant. It was not successful.

In the Novopavlovskyi direction, the occupiers attempted to storm the settlement of Novosilka. The enemy sustained losses and retreated.

In the Pivdennyi Buh and Tavriia directions, the occupiers, forces of separate units of the 8th and 49th Army, the 22nd Army Corps, the Black Sea Fleet Coast Guard, and the Airborne Forces are fighting to hold temporarily occupied territories and create conditions for inadequate actions in the directions Kherson - Mykolaiiv and Kherson - Kryvyi Rih.

In the Slobozhanskyi direction, there is an enemy group consisting of separate units of the 6th General Army of the Western Military District, the 41st General Army of the Central Military District, the coastal troops of the Baltic and Northern Fleets. Air strikes and shelling continue in Kharkiv. The russian occupiers in the Valuysky district of the Belgorod region deployed an auxiliary command post of the 36th Military Army of the Eastern Military District.

In the Izium direction, the enemy is trying to seize the initiative and conduct offensive operations in the Izium-Barvinkove direction. Moreover, the enemy is carrying out artillery shelling of Ukrainian troops' positions in the areas of the settlements of Hrushuvakha, Nova Dmytrivka, and Kurulka.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi announced the transition of the Defence Forces of Ukraine to counter-offensive operations in the Kharkiv and Izium areas.

The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to May 5 were: approximately combatants 24,700 (+200) were eliminated, tanks - 1,092 (+15) units, armoured combat vehicles - 2,651 (+41) units, artillery systems - 499 (+8) units, MLRS - 169 (+6) units, air defence means - 83 (+2) units, aircraft - 196 (+2) units, helicopters - 155 (+0) units, motor vehicles and tank trucks - 1 907 (+40) units, ships / boats - 10 (+0) units, UAVs of operational and tactical level - 312 (+9), special equipment - 38 (+0), cruise missiles - 89 (+2).

The heaviest losses the enemy were sustained in the Popasnianskyi direction yesterday.

2. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, quoted by Ukrinform , believes that enemy missile strikes on important infrastructure should have hindered the supply of military aid to Ukraine.

He stressed that “they (russians) tried to hit what we think are critical infrastructure targets in the west (Ukraine), including electricity supply facilities, transportation hubs, etc.”

Kirby assured that despite such strikes, the United States retains all the capabilities to supply military assistance, including the weapon systems. According to him, the United States and other Western countries have many ways to transport the necessary aid to Ukraine.

The New York The Times, citing the US officials, reports that the United States provided intelligence on russian troops, which allowed Ukrainians to attack and kill many russian generals during russia's war in Ukraine.

According to the UK intelligence review, sudden exercises in Belarus do not pose a threat to its neighbours, but russia can use them to keep the Ukrainian military in the north.

UK intelligence has noted that Belarusian ground forces are moving from garrisons to training grounds. It is noted that this is in line with seasonal norms, as Belarus is entering the culmination of its cycle of winter exercises in May.

“russia is likely to try to inflate the threat posed to Ukraine by these exercises in order to keep Ukrainian forces in the north by not allowing them to take part in the battle for the Donbas,” the report has stated.

3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide against Ukrainians.

International and national investigation into the genocide of the russian occupiers against Ukrainians. During the 70 days of the war against Ukraine, the russian military committed more than 9,800 war crimes. And this is just what is known - the unblocking of Mariupol and the de-occupation of territories will open even more horrific cases for investigation, said the Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova at a hearing of the Helsinki Commission of the US Congress.

The Kyiv region police exhumed the bodies of two young men. On February 25th, the occupiers killed two civilians in the car. But this was not enough for the invaders - the russian occupiers used their heavy vehicle to move over the car with two people inside.

The russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. As of the morning of May 5th, more than 629 children were injured in the russian aggression in Ukraine. According to the officials, 221 children were killed and more than 408 were injured.

The children were affected mostly in the Donetsk region - 139, the Kyiv region - 116, the Kharkiv region - 95, the Chernihiv region - 68, the Kherson region - 46, the Mykolaiiv region - 44, the Luhansk region - 37, the Zaporizhzhia region - 27, the Sumy region - 17, in Kyiv City - 16, the Zhytomyr region - 15.

The russian occupiers kill and abduct civilians, hold them hostage and torture them Dmytro Vasyliev, the secretary of the Nova Kakhovka city council in the Kherson region, was released after 46 days of captivity. Vasiliev was abducted on March 16th. Earlier, his wife reported that he was subjected to physical and moral pressure, including torture.

On May 2nd, the russian military seized the premises of the Chornobaiivska Village Council in the Kherson region, conducted a "rummage" of the village head Ihor Dudar, after which he was hospitalised, and abducted the Deputy Chairman Yevhen Rodionov.

For several days, the russian military has been blocking the arrivals and departures from the Kherson region to Mykolaiiv and other cities controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. During the night of May 5th, the russian troops shelled the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as fired missiles at the Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad regions. Ukrainian air defence sirens signals have worked in some regions.

The Kyiv region: in the evening the air defence system shot down a missile over the Brovary district. As a result of the falling of the debris bushes and reeds were burning. There were no casualties.

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, in the evening there were two missile attacks. One rocket was destroyed. Another rocket hit the railway infrastructure. There is destruction in the area. No one was injured.

In the Kirovohrad region, approximately after ten o'clock in the evening, the rocket fell down on infrastructure sites. As it was noted, there were no casualties.

The Cherkasy region: yesterday, at about ten o'clock in the evening, the air defence system near Cherkasy worked. Two missiles were shot down. There were no victims.

The Kharkiv region: there were several shellings on the outskirts of the city at night, no one was injured. An 11-year-old boy in the Lozivskyi district was wounded in the shelling during the past 24 hours. One person died in Balakliia region.

The Luhansk region: during a day, there were seven powerful artillery shellings of Severodonetsk, seven more in Popasna and Hirske communities, four in Lysychansk.

During the night, in Novodruzhesk, 2 houses were set on fire, and in Lysychansk, the houses were also set on fire. 5 civilians were killed.

The Donetsk region: The centre of Avdiivka was under missile air strikes was the. At least 15 houses were damaged, the premises of two gas stations were damaged.

Today at four o'clock in the morning, air-to-ground missiles have fired at Kramatorsk, as a result of which 9 residential buildings and secondary school No. 2 were damaged, the gas pipeline was depressurised on the territory of the Enerhomashspetsstal plant, other buildings were damaged. During the shelling, 25 civilians were injured, 20 of them were treated on the spot, 5 were sent to hospital.

In the evening and at night, there was from time-to-time shelling of Mar’inka, as well as shelling in Chasiv Yar, in the Bakhmut district. 17 houses were damaged, one civilian was killed.

Seven refugees were injured in a shelling by the russian troops of the Sviato Uspenska Sviatohirska Lavra (The Holy Mountains Lavra of the Holy Dormition) in the Donetsk region.

The Kherson region: the situation in the region remains difficult, there were explosions and shelling in the region.

The Mykolaiiv region: last night one of areas of Mykolaiiv was fired from MLRS. Residential buildings and gas pipes were damaged, and the Elektrotrans contact line was cut off. As a result of the shelling, 4 fires broke out. According to preliminary information, one person was injured.

4. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.

On May 4th, 344 people were evacuated as a part of the Mariupol Humanitarian Corridor. These were women, children and the elderly people from Mariupol, Manhush, Berdiansk, Tokmak, and Vasylivka. All of them have just arrived in Zaporizhzhia.

russia has said that a humanitarian corridor will be opened from 8 am on May 5th to evacuate civilians from the territory of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, with no mention of the military, including the wounded.

5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to russian aggression.

Economic losses due to russian aggression. According to Yuri Shchyhol, the head of the State Special Service , the occupiers are deliberately destroying Ukraine's television and broadcasting infrastructure to deprive Ukrainians of the opportunity to obtain truthful information about the war and the situation in Ukraine.

The Zaporizhzhia thermal power plant has run out of coal, which cannot be supplied due to the temporary occupation of Enerhodar by the russians and hostilities in the south of Ukraine - the operation of the thermal power plant has been stopped.

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine. President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier had a telephone conversation with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This was reported by DW.

According to the Federal President's Office, a "misunderstanding from the past" was resolved during the 45-minute conversation. The President of Germany assured Ukraine of full support. The President of Ukraine called the conversation with Steinmeier "good and constructive".

The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and Israel expressed outrage at Sergey Lavrov's anti-Semitic statements. Now an official apology is expected from the head of the russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Military assistance to Ukraine. Finland will send additional military equipment to Ukraine and is preparing to provide another 70 million euros in aid.

Financial assistance to Ukraine. An international donor conference on fundraising for war-torn Ukraine raised $ 6.5 billion.

A donors' conference is being held in Warsaw on May 5th, co-organised by Poland and Sweden, in partnership with the European Council, the European Commission and the United Nations. The event is designed as a platform to discuss assistance to Ukraine in the short and long term.

In his interview with Interfax-Ukraine, the European Council President Charles Michel said that the donor conference in Warsaw could be a starting point for Marshall's European plan for Ukraine. He calls for the confiscation of the assets of russians under sanctions in order to continue to use them to compensate for the damage caused by russia in the war against Ukraine.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recalled that since the start of the full-scale war, the EU has provided $ 4 billion in economic support to Ukraine, € 3.5 billion to help Ukrainians leave for the EU € 1.8 billion to help internally displaced persons, € 200 million will arrive in the nearest future.

The Prime Minister of Sweden has announced $ 23 million to support the organisations that provide humanitarian aid to Ukrainians.

The United Kingdom and in Ukraine, have legally enshrined the abolition of import duties and tariff quotas in bilateral trade. This was reported by the Ministry of Economy. The agreement will be valid for 12 months, but may be extended by agreement between the parties for a new term.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The United Kingdom has announced additional funding to help vulnerable people in Ukraine and those who have fled the war. This was reported Sky News.

A total of £ 45 million will be donated to charities and UN agencies working to support those affected by the war.

Hungary is ready to take part in rebuilding the infrastructure destroyed during the war in the Kyiv region and will accept Ukrainian soldiers for treatment.

7. Statements, provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.

In Mariupol, the russian occupiers plan to change the clothes of almost 2,000 men they hold in the so-called filtration prison into Ukrainian uniforms and involve them in a “parade of prisoners” on May 9th.

This was stated by the Mariupol Mayor's Adviser Petro Andriushenko on the national marathon: “We have information that today almost 2,000 men are being held in a filtration prison. These are the villages of Bezimenne and Kozatske. They were taken out of Mariupol almost 4 weeks ago.

These men are being held and told that they would be dressed in Ukrainian uniforms and brought to the so-called "parade of prisoners" in Mariupol, because they do not have enough real prisoners. It will be such a grotesque picture to create another propaganda picture.”

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. After the European Union and the United Kingdom announced new sanctions against russia, the US President Joe Biden has said that "we are always open to additional sanctions."

The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. The average price of Urals oil in April fell from $ 79.8 per barrel to $ 70.5. This was reported in the Ministry of Finance of the russian federation, Interfax  reports.

The average price of the Urals for the period from March 15th to April 14th was $ 79.81 per barrel. Thus, the discount price of russian Urals oil to the main grade of Brent oil continues to increase.

Due to the closure of the stores of the largest international fashion chains, clothing sales in russia from February 21 to April 10 fell by 23% in a year.

Energy giant Shell has said that Shell's executives, management and technical staff have left russia's Sakhalin II oil and gas project.

***

The Open Policy Foundation (hereinafter - the Foundation, http://openpolicy.org.ua) is a well-known public organisation that conducts analytical research and information campaigns, in particular on Ukrainian and foreign policy, protection of the rights of young people from the temporarily occupied territories to receive higher education in Ukraine.

With the beginning of the russian aggression, the Foundation's experts, together with other leading Ukrainian analysts, have joined a team to implement the Information Defence of Ukraine project. Experts of the project prepare daily reviews of the military-political situation in Ukraine in Ukrainian, English, and Russian, the first review was released on February 26th, moderate the telegram channel “Information Defence of Ukraine”, https://t.me/info_defense_ua.

For three months now, we have been working on a volunteer basis, free of charge in the conditions of hostilities, sometimes under the sounds of air attack sirens.

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