08:20 05.05.2022

Author IHOR ZHDANOV

Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of May 4th

16 min read
Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of May 4th

Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of the past day of May 4th, based on an analysis of open sources.

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Our first review was published on February 26th. All experts of the Information Defence of Ukraine project work free of charge, on a volunteer basis. We need your help. Each of your charitable donations is important to us.

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1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine heroically restrain the enemy's attacks in the decisive battle for the Donbas.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy continues to conduct offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone. The command of the russian troops is trying to increase the pace of the offensive attacks in the East of Ukraine in order to come to the administrative borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions , as well as to develop an offensive attack in the Zaporizhzhia and Kryvyi Rih areas.

In the Izium direction, the enemy is trying to seize the initiative and conduct offensive operations in the direction of Izium-Barvinkove. Moreover, the enemy is carrying out artillery shelling of the positions of Ukrainian troops in the areas of the settlements of Hrushuvakha, Nova Dmytrivka, and Kurulka.

In the Slobozhanskyi direction there is an enemy group consisting of separate units of the 6th General Army of the Western Military District, the 41st General Army of the Central Military District, the coastal troops of the Baltic and Northern Fleets.

Invaders continue to inflict air and artillery strikes on Kharkiv.

In the Donetsk direction, the main efforts of the enemy are focused on the offensive operations in the settlements of Lyman, Orikhove, Popasna, Velyka Novosilka, Huliaipole, Komyshuvakha. and Orikhiv.

Near the Estuary in the Donetsk region, the russian occupiers unsuccessfully tried to gain a foothold in Oleksandrivka during the day. In the direction of Severodonetsk, they attacked Voivodivka, but were unsuccessful. russians wanted to capture Orikhovo near Popasnaya, but failed.

In order to neutralise the Ukrainian defence forces, the russian occupiers are firing along the entire line of the contact line. In Avdiyivka, Kramatorsk, Severodonetsk, Mariupol, and Huliaipole, air strikes are being carried out.

In the Novopavlovsk direction (administrative borders between the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions), the occupiers fought near Novosilka, but sustained losses and retreated.

In the Pivdennyi Buh and Tavriia directions, the occupiers, forces of separate units of the 8th and 49th Army, the 22nd Army Corps, the Black Sea Fleet Coast Guard, and the Airborne Forces are fighting to hold the temporarily occupied territories and create conditions for inadequate actions in the directions of Kherson - Mykolaiiv and Kherson - Kryvyi Rih.

For the second day in blocked Mariupol, the russian troops are storming the Azovstal plant, in the dungeons of which remain the Ukrainian defenders and civilians who have not yet been evacuated.

The assault began on Tuesday, May 3rd, after the partial evacuation of civilians from the plant. On Wednesday, russians broke into a factory that had been bombed and shelled.

The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to May 4 were: combatants - approximately 24,500 (+300) people were eliminated, tanks - 1077 (+15) units, armoured combat vehicles - 2610 (+43) units, artillery systems - 491 +16) units, MLRS - 163 (+1) units, air defence means - 81 (+1) units, aircraft - 194 (+0) units, helicopters - 155 (+0) units, motor vehicles and tank trucks - 1867 (+ 24) units, ships / boats - 10 (+0) units, UAVs of operational and tactical level - 303 (+12), special equipment - 38 (+0), cruise missiles - 87 (+3).

2. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.

According to the UK intelligence review, russia has deployed 22 battalion tactical groups near Izium to invade the Donbas in the near future.

Despite the difficulties with the breakthrough of Ukrainian defence, russia is likely to intend to go beyond Izium to capture Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk. “The capture of these places will strengthen russian military control over the northeastern Donbas and become a springboard for efforts to cut off Ukrainian forces in the region,” the statement informed.

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, the occupiers plan to "celebrate" The Victory Day in ruined Mariupol instead of Donetsk, russian propagandists also say that May 9th will be a "holiday" in the occupied Mykhailivka, in the Zaporizhzhia region.

The Central Intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine stated that russians are inflaming the situation in Transnistria in order to use it as a psychological attack against Ukraine and are looking for ways to disperse the Ukrainian army.

3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide against Ukrainians.

International and national investigation into the genocide of the russian occupiers against Ukrainians. Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova in the Telegram has announced the completion of the first stage of the investigation in Irpin - an inspection of russian war crimes committed in the city.

According to Iryna Venediktova, now Irpin has been comprehensively processed by Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine together with investigators of the National Police and DBR, 228 witnesses have been interrogated so far, law enforcement officers have received testimonies about 7 shootings of civilians and their burial places. Two more burial places with people killed by russians have been found.

In the village of Shybyne (the Kyiv region), police exhumed the bodies of two people, including a 10-year-old girl who died from shrapnel wounds as a result of an enemy shell in the house. The body of a 58-year-old man was also found, who was shot dead by the occupiers near his house.

Investigation of the Associated  The Press informs that the russian attack on the Drama Theater in Mariupol resulted in more deaths than was expected, approximately 600 people were killed inside and outside the building.

The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. In the evening of May 3rd, russia's Tu-95 or Tu-160 strategic bombers launched a missile strike from the Caspian region.

Approximately 18 missiles were fired at the infrastructure of the Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Kyiv and Zakarpattia regions. Missile strikes were also inflicted on the Odesa and Donetsk regions from other means.

In the Vinnytsia, Kyiv and Zaporizhzgia regions, the missiles were neutralised by air defence systems.

On the night of May 4th, the Sumy and Mykolaiiv regions were shelled, in the morning in the Donetsk region the Avdiyivka Coke Plant was shelled for the second time, the Donbas and Kherson region were under constant fire.

In the Kirovohrad region: missiles hit a traction substation, no casualties. Another missile was neutralised by air defence system.

In the Odesa region: in the evening of May 3rd, three missiles were shot down by air defence, but there are hits in infrastructure facilities in the Artsyz territorial community of the Odesa region. No one was injured in the morning.

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, in the evening, there were two rocket strikes on the railway. Traction substation was destroyed. One person was injured.

In the afternoon of May 4th, russians from “Hrads” fired on two villages in the Velykomykhailivska community.

In the Zakarpattia region, in the evening, a rocket hit the power substation of the railway station, there were no casualties, and the distribution gas pipeline was damaged.

The Lviv region: last night a rocket hit on electric substations inflicting serious damage. There was a delay in the trains schedule. Two people who were near the place of the explosions were injured. 

The Sumy region: since the evening of May 3rd, russians have fired three times on the territory of the Sumy region from their positions from abroad. At about 7 am on May 4th, an enemy helicopter was deployed along the border in the Sumy district.

The Kharkiv region: at night, there were light shellings on the outskirts of Kharkiv; nobody was injured. During the day, the occupiers fired on Derhachi, Zolochiv, Bohodukhiv, and Chuhuiiv.

During the day, there were 6 wounded (Kharkiv, Zolochiv, Pervomaiskyi) and one person died in the Donetsk community of the Izium district.

The Luhansk region: on the night of May 4th, there were shellings of Lysychansk and Novodruzhesk, as a result of which two civilians were killed and two were wounded. 49 people were evacuated.

Four missile and bomb strikes were fired on Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, Lysychansk and Zolote. The enemy also shelled the Lysychanskyi, Severodonetskyi, Popasnianskyi and Hirske communities. 45 houses and other objects were damaged.

Donetsk: on Tuesday night, russians fired on the Avdiyivka Coke Plant, killing at least 10 people and wounding 20. Mar’inka was fired upon with incendiary shells, and a fire broke out in the private sector. In the area of the village Novomykhailivka, there was shelling for almost one hour.

The Kherson region: the situation in the region remains difficult, there were  explosions and shelling in the region at night.

The Mykolaiiv region: one of the districts of Mykolaiiv was attacked at night. There are no victims.

4. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.

The Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that the russian occupiers will allow people in their own cars to join the evacuation column with people from Azovstal, which was moving under the auspices of the UN on May 1, 2 and 3.

However, russians did not allow those who wanted to leave Tokmak, Berdiansk and Vasylivka in the Zaporizhzhia region to join the evacuation column.

5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to russian aggression.

The government and society demonstrate unity, patriotism and faith in victory. In the Ivano-Frankivsk region, it is planned to build about 100,000 square metres of housing for families who lost their homes due to the war.

Economic losses due to russian aggression. As of May 2nd, the total amount of direct damage inflicted on Ukraine by the russian war reached almost $92 billion. In particular, in more than two months, Ukrainians have lost almost 90,000 private cars.

Avdiyivka Coke Plant is in the process of conservation after the shelling by russians, people continue to work there providing support for industrial facilities.

Approximately 100,000 tons of grain were taken out or destroyed by the russian invaders from the Luhansk region, the sowing works have not started. The Luhansk regional military administration reported about this.

AB InBev has relocated the production of Chernihiv beer to Leuven, Flanders, because of russian aggression.

Signs of recovery of the Ukrainian economy. April's sales of new cars picked up slightly against the background of March. This was reported by AUTO-Consulting.

Thus, 1242 new cars were sold. This is almost twice as much as in March 2022. But comparing to April 2021, the decline remains catastrophic - 87%.

Restoration of infrastructure in the de-occupied and war-affected areas. Ukravtodor restored the connection between Kyiv and Zhytomyr on the Warsaw route.

Vodafone restored mobile communications in 71% of the Kherson region after the russian occupiers damaged the equipment.

The chairman of the Mykolaiiv regional military administration Vitalii Kim reported that water supply in Mykolaiiv will be restored by May 15th.

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine. According to Bild, the leader of Germany's largest opposition party CDU Friedrich Merz met with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his visit to Ukraine.

Austrian Minister for EU Affairs and Constitutional Affairs Karoline Edtstadler said that Ukraine's accession to the EU could not be achieved “in the next five to ten years.” Euractive writes about this.,

Military assistance to Ukraine. The United Kingdom will hand over Malloy T150 drones to the Armed Forces of Ukraine that are capable of delivering heavy equipment to the front lines.

At least 81 of the 90 howitzers the US government has decided to hand over to Ukraine are already at the disposal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. An unnamed Pentagon official said this in a comment to CNN.

Approximately 90,000 of the 144,000 rounds of ammunition have already been handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu has threatened that arms supplies from the NATO countries to Ukraine are considered a "legitimate goal" of destruction. This was reported by the russian agency "Interfax". Shoigu has said that NATO vehicles with weapons and ammunition for the Ukrainian armed forces, which arrived on the territory of this country, will be destroyed.

The Bulgarian Parliament has approved a decision to repair Ukrainian military equipment at defence enterprises, but they will not provide weapons and ammunition.

Financial assistance to Ukraine. The head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen proposed to start work on an ambitious reconstruction package for Ukraine, which will pave the way for Ukraine's future in the European Union.

The President of the European Commission announced this during a speech in the European Parliament on Wednesday. European Truth has reported.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The United Kingdom is handing over another batch of mobile generators for the needs of Ukrainians: the first part of 570 generators - – the UK handed almost 200 over to Ukraine in April.

The number of children and young people who left Ukraine because of the war and were admitted to schools in Germany has risen to almost 92,000.

7. Statements, provocations and fakes of Russian aggressors.

Operational Command “South” (“Pivden”) reports that in Tokmak (the Zaporizhzhia region), the russian military began to sew and disguise the uniform of the Armed Forces.

Provocations by such “deployed” units are to discredit the Ukrainian military in the occupied territories and secret subversive group attacks on the contact line possible.

Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the russian president, called the news that mobilisation could be announced in russia on May 9th a nonsense.

russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in an interview with russian propaganda media Radio Sputnik there were “Israeli mercenaries" who were allegedly fighting on the side of Ukraine's "nationalist battalions.”

russia's Chief Rabbi, Berl Lazar, has been shocked by russian Minister Sergei Lavrov's statements that “Jews are the fiercest anti-Semites,” and urged him to publicly apologise for the words.

russia's propaganda agency RIA Novosti has accused Ukrainian mortars of practicing "black magic" and backed up a comment by the cultural studies expert Ekaterina Dais.

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. The European Commission has submitted to EU member states a draft of a new, sixth, package of sanctions against russia for invading Ukraine. This was reported by the Austrian agency APA.

According to diplomats, the document provides for a gradual ban on imports of russian oil for six to eight months. Exceptions should be made for Hungary and Slovakia, which are heavily dependent on russian oil. They should be allowed to continue importing until the end of 2023.

Hungary will agree to new energy sanctions against russia only if the import of crude oil from russia through the pipeline is exempt from them. This was stated by Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Péter Szijjártó, according to the portal 444.hu.

The sixth package of EU sanctions against russia during the war may also include 17 companies in the defence industry, as well as companies that helped russia circumvent earlier sanctions.

As part of a new sanctions package, the UK has banned its companies from providing services to the russian clients, including consulting, auditing and PR.

The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. Against the background of the EU and US sanctions against russia after its invasion of Ukraine, oil refining in russia continues to decline - in April it decreased by 7% comparing to March, to 670 thousand tons per day.

In the 1st quarter of 2022, timber harvesting in russia decreased by 2.4% to 68.9 million cubic meters; the main reasons are the ban on exports from the country of raw wood from the beginning of 2022, as well as wood raw materials for plywood.

The US company Emerson is leaving the russian market and is looking for opportunities to sell its plant in the country.

***

The Open Policy Foundation (hereinafter - the Foundation, http://openpolicy.org.ua) is a well-known public organisation that conducts analytical research and information campaigns, in particular on Ukrainian and foreign policy, protection of the rights of young people from the temporarily occupied territories to receive higher education in Ukraine.

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