10:25 04.05.2022

Author IHOR ZHDANOV

Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of May 3rd

14 min read
Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of May 3rd

Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine[1] as of the past day of May 3rd, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine heroically restrain the enemy's attacks in the decisive battle for the Donbas.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the groups of the 6th Military Army of the Western Military District, the 41st Military Army of the Central Military District, and the coastal troops of the Baltic and Northern Fleets operate in the Slobozhanskyi direction.

In the Izium direction, the enemy’s forces of separate units of the 1st Panzer Army, the 20th Military Army of the Western Military District; The 29th, 35th, and 36th Military Armies and the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District and Airborne Troops are conducting offensive operations in the direction of Izium-Barvinkove. They sustain losses.

To support their actions, the occupiers moved a battery of 240-mm “Tulpan” (“Tulip”) heavy self-propelled mortars and a unit armed with “Smerch” (“Tornado”) rocket-propelled grenade launchers from the Belgorod region to the Izium area.

In the Donetsk and Tavriia directions, the groups of enemy troops, forces of separate units of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps, the 8th and 58th all-military armies of the Southern Military District; 5th Military Army and Pacific Fleet of the Eastern Military District; The 2nd and 41st Military Armies and the 90th Panzer Division of the Central Military District and Airborne Forces are conducting offensive operations on a certain section of the contact line of the frontline.

russian troops continue to move in the direction of the Lyman, Sloviansk and Siversk and try to seize full control of Rubizhne and Popasna. At some borders, russians began equipping the second line of defence.

In the Pivdennyi Buh direction, the enemy is fighting with the forces of the 8th and 49th Armies, the 22nd Army Corps, the Coastal Forces of the Black Sea Fleet of the Southern Military District and the Airborne Troops to improve the tactical situation.

As predicted by Information Defence experts, the enemy's offensive attacks were exhausted and choked. The enemy took an operational pause, accompanied by heavy positional battles and constant heavy artillery shelling of our positions, to regroup its troops and resume offensive operations soon.

The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to May 3 were: combatants - approximately 24,200 (+400) people were eliminated, tanks - 1062 (+14) units, armoured combat vehicles - 2567 (+48) units, artillery systems - 475 +16) units, MLRS - 162 (+10) units, air defence means - 80 (+0) units, aircraft - 194 (+0) units, helicopters - 155 (+0) units, motor vehicles and tank trucks - 1843 (+ 19) units, ships / boats - 10 (+2) units, UAVs of operational and tactical level - 291 (+20), special equipment - 38 (+0), cruise missiles - 84 (+0).

The greatest losses of the enemy yesterday were observed in the Izium direction.

Separately, the General Staff noted that as a result of effective attacks and coordinated actions of the Armed Forces, russian units of the 38th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade lost 60% of their personnel.

2. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.

The Chief of the General Staff of the russian armed forces, General Valery Gerasimov, recently visited Ukraine. This was stated by a senior official of the US Department of Defense on CNN.

The official declined to say why the United States was unsure of the russian general's whereabouts or who had intelligence that led to the conclusion. Earlier, there were reports that Gerasimov was wounded in Ukraine, but the United States has no information that he was wounded, the source said.

US intelligence reports that russia will try to "join" Donetsk and Luhansk regions by "mid-May", then the occupiers plan to annex the Kherson region and proclaim a “Kherson People's Republic”. This was reported by CNN .

According to the UK intelligence review, as a result of the invasion of Ukraine, the russian army is now much weaker, both physically and in spirit.

It is noted that between 2005 and 2018, russia's defence budget has almost doubled, due to investments in several high-quality air, ground and sea vehicles. Since 2008, this has been at the heart of a large-scale military modernisation program.

However, the modernisation of its physical equipment did not allow russia to dominate Ukraine. Failures in both strategic planning and operational implementation did not allow it to turn numerical power into a decisive advantage.

The russian army is now much weaker, both physically and in spirit, as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. Recovery from this will be hampered by sanctions. This will have a lasting effect on russia's ability to deploy regular military force, the review said.

The Central Intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine states that information is being spread in the russian army that hostilities in Ukraine may continue until September this year.

Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, believes that russia's war against Ukraine could end in two ways - the disintegration of russia into three or more parts or a change in russian leadership.

3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide against Ukrainians.

International and national investigation into the genocide of the russian occupiers against Ukrainians. The Office of the Prosecutor General stated that of the 290 bodies of Irpin civilians were exhumed for examination and reburial, 105 remain unidentified.

During the investigation in the village of Kalynivka, Makarivska territorial community, another unauthorised burial of two men with traces of torture was discovered.

 

The russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. As of May 3rd, more than 626 children were injured in the result of the armed aggression of the russian federation in Ukraine: according to official and incomplete data, 220 children died and more than 406 were injured.

During 68 days of the war, the children were mostly injured: 139 in the Donetsk region, 115 in the Kyiv region, 95 in the Kharkiv region, 68 in the Chernihiv region, 45 in the Kherson region, 43 in the Mykolaiiv region, 37 in the Luhansk region, 27 in the Zaporizhzhia region, 17 in the Sumy region, 16 in Kyiv City, 15  in the Zhytomyr region.

The russian occupiers kill and abduct civilians, hold them hostage and torture them. russia 's Defence Ministry says the invaders deported 1.1 million people from Ukraine, including approximately 200,000 children.

russians are taking away phones from the residents of the russian-occupied Kreminna, the Luhansk region, food is running out, and there is no light or gas there.

The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. On the night of May 3rd, the russian occupiers fired on Kharkiv, Luhansk, Kherson, and Mykolaiiv. Odesa is recovering from a missile strike that killed a child.

In Odessa, the night was quiet. On the evening of May 2nd, the enemy fired a rocket: one of the religious buildings was damaged, one hit a city infrastructure facility in Odesa and a residential building, one 15-year-old child was killed and one girl was injured.

The Kharkiv region: over the past 24 hours, two people were injured during the shelling of Kharkiv, another person was injured in the Chuhuiiv district of the region, a 46-year-old worker in a factory that caught fire from shelling died in the Kharkiv district.

In the afternoon of May 3rd, the russian occupiers fired on the central part of Kharkiv, causing fires in the central part of the city.

The Luhansk region: in the evening on Monday, there was a heavy shelling of Rubizhne, in the morning on Tuesday, there was a heavy shelling of Novodruzhesk. Details about the victims and the consequences of the shelling are being clarified. 20 people were evacuated.

The Donetsk region: from 5 am, there was a shelling of Vuhedar by artillery. Lyman, Avdiivka - under constant fire. At least nine people were killed by the russian invaders on May 3rd in the Donetsk region.

In the afternoon of May 3rd, at least 10 civilians were killed and 15 were wounded as a result of the shelling of the Avdiivka Coke Plant by the russian occupiers.

In Mariupol, as a result of airstrikes on the territory of the Azovstal plant by the russian occupiers, about ten people were injured and two women were killed.

The Kherson region: there were explosions and shelling in the region. The occupiers continue fighting and looting in the Kherson region.

The Mykolaiiv region: in the evening, there was shelling of the area, the blow was struck on the water supply area in Ochakiv. Also shelling across the city of Mykolaiiv was carried out. As of this morning, no one was injured.

Two people died as a result of shelling by the russian occupiers of the village of Zaliznychne, the Huliaipilskyi district, in the Zaporizhzhia region.

4. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.

Of the 14 buses that took residents of Mariupol on May 2nd, only 3 arrived in the territory controlled by Ukraine on the morning of May 3rd, the fate of the people from the 11 buses is still unknown; more than a thousand city residents are still awaiting evacuation.

In the afternoon of May 3rd, 156 people arrived in Zaporizhzhia on five evacuation buses.

The evacuees from Mariupol told reporters that on May 2nd, the buses were awaiting inspections by the occupiers in Manhush near Mariupol. At about 8 am on May 3rd, the column moved in the direction of Zaporizhzhia.

5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to russian aggression.

The government and society demonstrate unity, patriotism and faith in victory. For the first time since the beginning of the war, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and called on them to be united, not to waste time on secondary laws and to remember that they were the parliamentarians of the greatest country now.

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine banned the activities of pro-russian parties in Ukraine. 330 deputies voted for it.

Fourteen of the wealthiest Ukrainians together donated about $120 million to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine and for humanitarian purposes. Such data were collected by the Ukrainian Forbes.

Economic losses due to russian aggression. In January-April 2022, the country budget expenditures amounted to 558.1 billion, including the general fund of the country budget - 523.3 billion or 77.7% of the plan.

For the first 4 months of 2022, the country budget was executed with a deficit of 146.6 billion, including the general fund - with a deficit of 157.2 billion with a plan of 317.1 billion.

Signs of recovery of the Ukrainian economy. Approximately 1.1 million tons of grain, oil and meal were exported from Ukraine in April, which is much more than in March, when there were less than 200,000.

On April 27th, approximately 1,000 legal entities and individuals received UAH 3.3 billion from the redemption of the first issue of military bonds.

Restoration of infrastructure in the occupied territories. Two residential complexes with an area of 50,000 square meters will be built in the Kyiv region for people who were left homeless due to the military aggression of the russian federation.

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine. In his address to the Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson expressed his belief in Ukraine's victory over russia and announced a new package of military support.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes that the terms of peace should be determined by Ukraine, according to Reuters. He is convinced that the sanctions imposed on russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine will not be lifted until Moscow reaches a peace agreement with Ukraine.

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on Tuesday supported the appeal to the House of Representatives and the US Senate to recognise russia as a sponsor of terrorism.

Military assistance to Ukraine. On Monday, the United Kingdom said it would provide Ukraine with additional military aid of 300 million pounds ($375 million).

This assistance will include, inter alia, electronic warfare equipment and a counter -battery radar system. In addition, the UK will offer Ukraine night vision devices, tools to block satellite navigation, heavy drones and armoured vehicles for civilian officials.

According to a senior US Department of Defense official on CNN, more than 70 M777 howitzers arrived in Ukraine, which is about 80% of the total of 90 guns that the United States has pledged to provide.

According to a Pentagon spokesman, more than 200 Ukrainian gunners have so far been trained in the use of M777 howitzers, including a group of 50 Ukrainians who are due to complete their training today.

The German federal government has decided to deliver 7 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 howitzers from the Bundeswehr to Ukraine.

According to the Haaretz newspaper, political and military officials in Israel are inclined to supply defence military assistance to Ukraine. It is noted that the amount of evidence of russia's atrocities against the Ukrainian people makes “Israel's shaky neutrality in the war less reliable.”

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The United Kingdom will transfer 13 units of armoured vehicles to evacuate civilians from besieged areas in eastern Ukraine.

7. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. The European Union hopes to approve the sixth package of sanctions against russia at the next meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council on May 10th.

Head of the European Diplomacy Joseph Borrell said the sixth package of sanctions against Moscow would exclude more russian banks from SWIFT, a network that allows millions of international transactions a day.

The EU plans to step up cooperation with African countries to reduce dependence on russian gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022. This was reported by Bloomberg with reference to the draft EU external energy strategy, which was reviewed by the agency.

Slovakia will insist on lifting the embargo on russian oil if it becomes the subject of the new EU sanctions against russia.

The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. russia's dollar payments on two bond issues, the default of which would mark russia's first foreign default since the early 20th century, eventually reached debt holders. Bloomberg reported this.

The European oil refineries in the UK BP company no longer buy russian oil.

***

The Open Policy Foundation (hereinafter - the Foundation, http://openpolicy.org.ua) is a well-known public organisation that conducts analytical research and information campaigns, in particular on Ukrainian and foreign policy, protection of the rights of young people from the temporarily occupied territories to receive higher education in Ukraine.

With the beginning of the russian aggression, the Foundation's experts, together with other leading Ukrainian analysts, have joined a team to implement the Information Defence of Ukraine project. Experts of the project prepare daily reviews of the military-political situation in Ukraine in Ukrainian, English, and Russian, the first review was released on February 26th, moderate the telegram channel “Information Defence of Ukraine”, https://t.me/info_defense_ua.

For three months now, we have been working on a volunteer basis, free of charge in the conditions of hostilities, sometimes under the sounds of air attack sirens.

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[1]The first review of the military-political situation was published on February 26th. All experts of the Information Defence of Ukraine project work free of charge, on a volunteer basis. How to help our team, please, see the link at the end of this review.

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