Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of the past day of May 2nd, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine heroically restrain the enemy's attacks in the decisive battle for the Donbas.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy is conducting offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone in order to establish full control over the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and to maintain the land corridor with the temporarily occupied Crimea.

The most intensive activity of the invaders is observed in the Slobozhanskyi and Donetsk directions. In the Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiiv areas, the enemy regrouped troops, strengthened artillery units and air defence units. The enemy is trying to establish a system of logistical support for the grouping of troops in these areas.

The enemy continues to prepare reserves in order to further transfer them to operational areas in Ukraine.

The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to May 2 were: approximately 23,800 (+300) combatants were eliminated, tanks - 1048 (+22) units, armoured combat vehicles - 2519 (+48) units, artillery systems - 459 (+ 8) units, MLRS - 152 (+1) units, air defence means - 80 (+0) units, aircraft - 194 (+2) units, helicopters - 155 (+0) units, of motor vehicles and tankers - 1,824 (+28) units, ships / boats - 8 (+0) units, UAVs of operational and tactical level - 271 (+26), special equipment - 38 (+6), cruise missiles - 84 (+0).

It is reported that the greatest losses of the enemy of the past day were sustained in the Izium direction.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi said that on May 2, the Ukrainian military destroyed two russian boats near Zmiinyi.

According to unverified information, during the destruction of one of the enemy's command posts, the Chief of the General Staff of the russian armed forces, General of the Army Gerasimov, was wounded.

2. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.

According to WP sources in the US Department of Defense, including US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Western artillery that has filled Ukraine will change the course of the war with russia and force both russia and Ukraine to “act smarter” to avoid serious casualties.

In particular, Lloyd Austin said that long-range artillery would be crucial in the next phase of the war. A senior Defense Ministry official has said that because the West continues to send so much artillery to Ukraine, “it could be something like a shootout.” The Pentagon estimates that russia is not as effective as it would like to be in the use of long-range artillery.

The Biden Administration is expected to approve the transfer of even more artillery to Ukraine in the coming days. According to Blinken, the new request of the US Congress in the amount of 33 billion dollars for additional assistance to Ukraine includes funding for "long-range artillery of heavier caliber."

According to UK intelligence in its review, russia has deployed more than 120 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine, which is 65% of its ground forces.

It is likely that more than a quarter of these units are currently incapacitated.

Some of russia's most elite units, including the Airborne Forces, have suffered the greatest depletion. It will probably take russia years to rebuild these forces.

According to the Central Intelligence Agency (GUR), russia is stepping up a campaign to recruit "volunteers" for military service under a contract in which each region will be forced to find 200 soldiers a week.

It is assumed that the "volunteers" must recover the combatants’ losses in the units that took part in the war in Ukraine. It is also planned to form several new units.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, russia is preparing to announce an open mobilisation on May 9th.

3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide against Ukrainians.

International and national investigation into the genocide of the russian occupiers against Ukrainians. In the Kyiv region, law enforcement officers have already found 1,202 bodies of Ukrainian citizens who died at the hands of the russian occupiers.

The police found eight new mass graves of civilians killed by russian invaders. According to the Deputy Chief of Police of the Kyiv region Maksym Ocheretianyi, another 148 people were found in these eight burial sites. All the victims have injuries, a forensic examination is underway.

The Security Service of Ukraine has identified nearly 900 russian invaders who committed crimes against civilians in the Kyiv region.

Prosecutors and police have identified the first suspect in the brutal killings of civilians in the city of Bucha near Kyiv - the commander of the russian National Guard, Sergei Kolotsei.

According to Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova on Facebook, Bucha prosecutors and police have established that it was this serviceman who killed four unarmed men in Bucha on March 18th.

The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. On the night of May 2nd, shelling continued in peaceful towns and villages in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson regions.

In the Dnipropetrovsk region there was no shelling at night. In the morning - several air attacks in Synelnykivskyi district, as a result, of one of them hit in the industrial zone, destroying warehouses. According to operative data, there are no victims there.

The Kharkiv region: night shelling of residential areas of the city continued. There were several fires, rescuers are at work there, according to preliminary data, there are no victims.

Bohodukhiv, Zolochiv, Mala Danylivka, Chuhuiiv were shelled in the region, 3 people were killed, 8 civilians were wounded.

The Luhansk region: 18 enemy shellings per day. Destruction of 28 houses. Three people were killed, three were wounded, among the victims was one child. In Lysychansk, a gymnasium was fired upon and burnt.

Donetsk: the region remains in critical condition due to hostilities. As a result of the shelling on Sunday evening and at night, 4 civilians were wounded: two in Velyka Novosilka and two Volodymyrivka (the Bakhmut district).

The Kherson region: explosions and shelling continue in the region. The occupiers continue fighting and looting in the Kherson region.

In the Odesa region, russian troops launched a rocket attack on the same bridge in the Gulf area for the third time in the last week.

4. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.

Thanks to 9 exchanges of prisoners and hostages, 320 citizens, including 59 civilians, returned to Ukraine.

Two days ago, the occupiers allowed the first 20 people to be taken out of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, which sheltered hundreds of civilians and wounded soldiers. Yesterday, Ukrainian authorities said more than 100 Ukrainians had been evacuated from the plant.

Mariupol City Council has announced that the evacuation, which has had to begin today, May 2 at 7:00, is underway. In the evening it became known that more than 100 civilians were taken out of the Azovstal bomb shelters to the unoccupied part of Ukraine.

5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to russian aggression.

Economic losses due to russian aggression. Almost 4.5 million tons of grain are blocked in Ukrainian ports - it is currently impossible to export them because sea routes have been closed due to the war.

Zaporizhzhia Metallurgical Plant "Zaporizhstal" in January-April this year reduced the output by 44.1% compared to the same period last year - to 630.1 thousand tons.

Retail gas station networks raised fuel prices from April 29 to May 2 as the government raised marginal trade surcharges on gasoline and diesel fuel as a result of the defeat of the Kremenchuh refinery by russian troops.

Signs of recovery of the Ukrainian economy and social network. A team from the Office of the President of Ukraine and the Government has developed a plan for Ukraine's economic recovery. This was announced by the head of the President's Office Andrii Yermak. The plan is based on 9 key principles:

1. Full access to the EU and G7 markets.

2. Obtaining candidate status and then a membership in the EU.

3. Building an economy on the principles of deregulation and liberalisation.

4. Establishment of logistics routes in the Western direction.

5. Transition from export of raw materials to processing in those industries that give the largest export revenue.

6. Development of the domestic military-industrial complex.

7. Self-sufficiency in energy will be achieved by increasing its own gas production and developing nuclear energy.

8. Climate modernisation.

9. Localisation not less than 60%.

In Ukraine, more than 3.4 thousand kindergartens resumed their work. 1.8 thousand displaced children also went to kindergartens,the Minister of Education and Science of Ukraine Serhii Shkarlet has said. Some preschools are using distance learning.

Restoration of infrastructure in the occupied territories. In April, “DTEK” Energy Holding restored electricity supply to more than 522,000 families in the Kyiv, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and opened 19 Customer Service Centres (CSCs).

According to the Kyiv City Military Administration in Telegram, the capital of Ukraine is provided with food, basic necessities and medicines - stocks are stored in different places so that the occupiers do not destroy them with one or more blows.

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine. The Americans strongly support Ukraine, and a large bipartisan majority supports the strengthening of sanctions against russia, as well as military and humanitarian aid to our country. Washington Post-ABC has informed.

Overall, 73% of those polled say the United States is either doing enough or too little to support Ukraine. At the same time, 72% do not support direct US military action against russian forces, while 21% of respondents support this idea. Even among those who say the United States is doing too little to support Ukraine, 57 percent oppose outright military action.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The Czech city of Brno will hand over 2 Tatra T3 trams and 6 Škoda 14Tr trolleybuses to its “brother” Kharkiv.

7. Statements, provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.

In Telegram, the russian Parliament Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin insulted countries that help Ukraine with weapons and called them war criminals because they allegedly “push the world into catastrophe.”

The occupiers' Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov said that Adolf Hitler had Jewish blood, and that the most ardent anti-Semites were usually Jews. Israel is outraged by such statements.

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. According to German Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock, the country supports the EU oil embargo against russia, according to Zeit.

According to Bloomberg, Hungarian Minister Gergely Gulyás said that Budapest would veto any European proposal that would limit the import of energy from russia.

The European Commission can make an exception and release Hungary and Slovakia from the embargo on the purchase of russian oil. Two EU officials told this Reuters on Monday.

The European Commission is expected to complete work on the next, sixth, package of EU sanctions against russia for its actions in Ukraine on Tuesday, which will include a ban on buying russian oil.

Thanks to the capacity of the Gdańsk refinery, Poland is ready to help Germany give up russian oil.

The Dutch docks have refused to unload a tanker carrying russian diesel fuel - it is currently standing near Amsterdam.

New Zealand has imposed additional sanctions against russian politicians and defence agencies that “support Putin's actions in Ukraine.”

The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. Gazprom's daily gas sales to key foreign markets fell to its lowest level in three months in April. Bloomberg has informed about this.

According to the agency, Gazprom supplied an average of 387 million cubic meters of gas a day in April to countries outside the former Soviet Union, which is 22% less than in March.

Finnish design company Fennovoima has announced that it has terminated the agreement for the construction of the Hanhikivi-1 nuclear power plant with Rosatom. The Finnish Ministry of Employment and Economic Affairs called the company's decision justified and consistent.

***

The Open Policy Foundation (hereinafter - the Foundation, http://openpolicy.org.ua) is a well-known public organisation that conducts analytical research and information campaigns, in particular on Ukrainian and foreign policy, protection of the rights of young people from the temporarily occupied territories to receive higher education in Ukraine.

With the beginning of the russian aggression, the Foundation's experts, together with other leading Ukrainian analysts, have joined a team to implement the Information Defence of Ukraine project. Experts of the project prepare daily reviews of the military-political situation in Ukraine in Ukrainian, English, and Russian, the first review was released on February 26th, moderate the telegram channel “Information Defence of Ukraine”, https://t.me/info_defense_ua.

For three months now, we have been working on a volunteer basis, free of charge in the conditions of hostilities, sometimes under the sounds of air attack sirens.

If you like our reviews and want to continue to receive a quality analytical product that describes the objective picture of the Ukrainian-russian war, we ask you to provide charitable assistance to our team.

Help in UAH: you can transfer the money to the Oschadbank card 5304 0999 9952 1978, on the name of Ihor Zhdanov.

Help in USD: you can transfer to the account

1. Beneficiary name (exact name of bank account holder): Ihor Zhdanov (Ігор Олександрович Жданов)

2. Beneficiary city and country:

City Kyiv

Country Ukraine

3. Name of bank: Acc. 04-095-334 PJSC “State Savings Bank of Ukraine”

4. IBAN number: UA513226690000026207001378162

6. Swift number: COSB UA UK KIE

7. Full address of bank (street, city and country): Hospitalna str., 12 G, Kyiv, Ukraine

8. Other information (Bank code, ABA number, BSB number): Intermediary bank: Citibank NA, New York, Swift: CITIUS33

Thank you for each of your donations, it is very important and necessary for us.

Glory to Ukraine!