Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of the past day of April 30th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine heroically restrain the enemy's attacks in the decisive battle for the Donbas.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the main goal of the enemy remains unchanged – controlling the environment of the groups of the Defence Forces of Ukraine, establishing full control over the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions, ensuring the stability of the land corridor with the occupied territory of Crimea.

In the Slobozhanskyi direction, a group of enemy troops continues to carry out air strikes and artillery shelling of Kharkiv.

Because of the attacks of the Ukrainian Defence Forces in the Kharkiv region, control over the settlements of Verkhnia Rohanka, Ruska Lozova, Slobidske and Prylesne was restored.

In the Izium direction, the occupiers, with the help of separate units of the 1st Panzer Army and the 20th Military Army of the Western Military District, the 35th Army and the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District and airborne troops are trying to advance in the directions Izium – Barvinkove and Izium – Sloviansk.

The enemy continues to concentrate forces and resources in this direction. Thus, the occupiers moved units of the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Military Army of the Central Military District to the Volokhiv Yar settlement, and units of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Military Army of the Eastern Military District to Izium.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy's main efforts were focused on offensive operations in the Lymanskyi, Severodonetskyi, Popasnianskyi, and Kurakhivskyi directions in order to take full control of the settlements of Rubizhne, Popasna, and probably further attack on the Lyman, Sloviansk, and Barvinkove.

In the Mariupol direction, the enemy continued to launch air strikes on Mariupol. The main efforts are focused on blocking units of the Defence Forces in the area of the Azovstal plant.

The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to April 30 were: combatants - approximately 23,200 (+200) people were eliminated, tanks - 1008! (+22) units, armoured combat vehicles - 2445 (+27) units, artillery systems - 436 (+1) units, MLRS - 151 (+0) units, air defence - 77 (+4) units, aircraft - 190 +1) units, helicopters - 155 (+0) units, automotive equipment - 1701 (+6) units, ships / boats - 8 (+0) units, fuel tanks - 76 (+0), UAV operational and tactical level - 232 (+4), special equipment - 32 (+1), launchers TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) - 4 (+0).

2. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.

According to CNN, a senior US Defense Department official believes that russia is trying to disrupt the ability of the Ukrainian military to "replenish its own reserves and strengthen." The United States also believes that although recent missile strikes have hit residential areas, they were intended for military production facilities.

The official cited the example of russian attacks on power facilities that could interfere with Ukrainian trains. According to the official speaker, the russian strikes in Odesa may be aimed at holding back Ukrainian forces there and preventing them from strengthening their defenders in the Donbas.

The official also said that russia had launched 1950 missiles at Ukraine since the invasion in February, and that most of the munitions dropped on Mariupol were "dumb" munitions that did not have accurate guidance, indicating that russian forces still had difficulties in replenishing their high-precision ammunition.

As the Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom has reported in its review, russia hopes to overcome the problems that previously deterred its invasion by geographically concentrating combat power, reducing supply lines, and simplifying command and control.

According to the UK intelligence, russia still faces significant challenges. russia was forced to unite and redeploy depleted and fragmented units from unsuccessful offensives in northeastern Ukraine. Many of these units probably have weakened morale powers.

The shortcomings of russia's tactical coordination remain. Lack of skills at the unit level and incessant air support did not allow russia to make full use of its fighting force, despite local improvements, according to the UK intelligence.

3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide against Ukrainians.

International and national investigation into the genocide of the russian occupiers against Ukrainians. According to the police, on April 29th, a pit with the bodies of three men was found in the Bucha district, they were brutally slaughtered by russian soldiers.

russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. On the night of April 30th, the russian army fired missiles at the Dnipropetrovsk region, in the Donetsk region russians attacked with missiles, planes and artillery, the Luhansk, Kharkiv and Kherson regions sustained shelling losses.

In the morning, a rocket has "arrived" in the village of the Synelnykivskyi district in the Dnipropetrovsk region. As far as has been informed, there were no killed and injured people.

Kharkiv: shelling of the city continued at night, in particular in the easternmost residential area of Saltivka, one person was injured.

During the day, the occupiers have continued shelling the settlements of the Bohodukhivskyi, Iziumskyi and Lozivskyi districts.

The Luhansk region: 6 massive artillery attacks during the day. Burning of 20 houses and 2 schools in Hirske and 10 in the village of Horikhove.

The Donetsk region: during the past 24 hours, russians fired on 12 settlements: Mariupol, Lyman, Avdiyivka, Siversk, Mykolaiivka, Velyka Novosilka, Pryvillia, Soloviove, Raihorodok, Novoselivka, Shandryholove, Vremivka. During the day, the occupiers have killed four civilians, including a child, and wounded 8 civilians, including children.

Because of the shelling by the russian occupiers in Dobropillia, 7 people were injured, including three children.

The Kherson region: there are explosions, many houses were destroyed and the citizens were injured. The situation in the villages bordering Mykolaiiv, Snihurivka, Zelenodolske and Kryvyi Rih remains critical.

The Odesa region: in the afternoon of April 30th, russian troops launched a missile strike on the Odesa region, damaging the airport's runway.

The russian occupiers kill and abduct civilians, hold them hostage and torture them. On April 30th, a teacher from Kakhovka, school principal Viktor Mykhailovych Pendalchuk (b. 1977), was abducted from his home by the russian military.

4. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.

On April 30th, 40 people left cities in Luhansk region, but the day before, two buses with volunteers travelling to Popasna had come under fire - people disappeared from the first evacuation bus, and the second bus with humanitarian aid also disappeared.

According to Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk, the Ukrainian authorities managed to save 14 Ukrainians from russian captivity, including a servicewoman at 5 months of pregnancy, after the eighth exchange of prisoners.

5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to the russian aggression.

Restoration of infrastructure in the occupied territories. Work on the restoration of gas supply in 117 settlements of the Brovarskyi, Vyshhorodskyi, Fastivskyi and partially Buchanskyi districts of the Kyiv region has been completed.

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine. The White House has privately told Indonesia that russia cannot be admitted to this year's G20 summit, although the president announced on Friday that president putin had accepted the invitation.

In a phone conversation with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the French President Emmanuel Macron promised to "strengthen Ukraine's support in defence armaments and humanitarian aid."

Military assistance to Ukraine. The United States has trained two groups of 50 Ukrainian instructors, who will then teach colleagues how to use US artillery. This was stated by a senior official of the US Department of Defense, CNN reports.

The United States has also trained a group of about 15 Ukrainians on the US radar systems provided to Ukraine, and other groups are planning to join the training.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Estonia is sending a team of demining specialists to Ukraine, which will constantly assist Ukrainian colleagues on a rotating basis.

7. Statements, provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.

The russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov has said that any cargo of weapons to Kyiv from abroad, which is on the territory of Ukraine, is a "legitimate goal" for russia.

russian media RIA Novosti, TASS, Interfax reported on the shelling of a village in the border with Ukraine, in the Bryansk region of russia. According to the governor of the region Aleksandr Bogomaz, the russian air defence systems detected a plane of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the sky over the Bryansk region on Saturday morning.

Thus allegedly russian air defence didn't allow penetration of the Ukrainian plane into the territory of the Bryansk region, and two shells hit on the settlement of Zhecha.

The People's Deputy of Ukraine, Chairman of the Mejlis Refat Chubarov has said that in the Crimea on April 30th, under the control of the FSB, the local occupation authorities "convene" a "congress of representatives", on which, due to the lack of a significant number of Crimean Tatar collaborators, the students of the Crimean Engineering and Pedagogical University, as well as the employees of budgetary state organisations, including school teachers, will be obliged to participate.

The only purpose for which the FSB of the russian federation organises this "congress" is to imitate the support of the Crimean Tatars for “putin's policy and a special military operation” against Ukraine.

The Department of Strategic Investigations of the National Police reported that the special services of the russian federation, due to their criminal connections, were preparing provocations and riots in Odesa, especially for the anniversary of the tragic events of May 2nd. They intended to destabilise the situation in the region by inciting riots, organising mass protests and riots aimed at overthrowing the state system of Ukraine.

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. Germany does not plan to pay for russian gas in rubles now or in the future. The Minister of Finance Christian Lindner stated this, writes “European Truth” (“Yevropeiska Pravda”).

***

The Open Policy Foundation (hereinafter - the Foundation, http://openpolicy.org.ua) is a well-known public organisation that conducts analytical research and information campaigns, in particular on Ukrainian and foreign policy, protection of the rights of young people from the temporarily occupied territories to receive higher education in Ukraine.

With the beginning of the russian aggression, the Foundation's experts, together with other leading Ukrainian analysts, have joined a team to implement the Information Defence of Ukraine project. Experts of the project prepare daily reviews of the military-political situation in Ukraine in Ukrainian, English, and Russian, the first review was released on February 26th, moderate the telegram channel “Information Defence of Ukraine”, https://t.me/info_defense_ua.

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