Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defense

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, as of the past day on April 1st, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The russian occupiers have not achieved success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, over the past 24 hours the Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated more than 30 settlements.

In the Kyiv region, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine regained control over the settlements of Borodianka, Hostomel, Demydiv, Dymer, Lytvynivka, Havrylivka, Kozarovychi, Zhovtneve, Hlybivka, Yasnohorodka, Talakun, Sukholuchchia, Lypivka, Havronka, Makovyshche, Mykolaiivka, and Khmilna.

Separate units of the 5th, 29th, and 35th Military Armies of the Eastern Military District and the 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet are retreating from the Chernobyl area to Belarus, probably with further movement to the Belgorod region.

In the Chernihiv region , units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken control of the settlements of Rudnia, Shevchenkove, Bobryk, Stara Basan’, Nova Basan’, Makiiivka, Pohreby, Bazhanivka, Volodymyrivka, Shniakivka, Salne, Sofiiivka, and Havrylivka.

In the Kherson region , the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated and took control of 11 settlements from the invaders.

In the Izium direction, the occupiers continue to control part of the city of Izium and maintain pontoon crossings across the Siverskyi Donets River, regrouping troops in order to create an offensive group.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy's main efforts are focused on taking control of the settlements of Popasna, Rubizhne, carrying out fire damage and assault operations in order to establish control over Mariupol.

During the past 24 hours, the Allied forces successfully repulsed 9 attacks by the russian military. In particular, Ukrainian defenders destroyed 8 tanks, 44 units of armoured vehicles and 16 units of motor vehicles, as well as 10 enemy artillery systems.

Total enemy combat losses from 24.02 to 01.04: combatants – approximately 17,700 people, tanks - 625 units, armored combat vehicles - 1751 units, artillery systems - 316 units, MLRS - 96 units, air defence - 54 units, aircraft - 143 units, helicopters - 131 units, motor vehicles - 1220 units, ships / boats - 7 units, fuel tanks - 76, operational-tactical UAVs - 85, special equipment - 24, OTRK / TRK launchers - 4.

According to Information Defence analysts, a turning point in the Ukrainian-russian war has come.

The liberation of the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions continues. Ukrainian troops are fighting fierce battles near Kharkiv, trying to push the russian occupiers to the state border with russia, near Kherson and in the Zaporizhzhia region, threatening the Mariupol group of the russian invaders.

The enemy is trying to replenish and give a temporary respite to its BTRs from the Kyiv operational zone, which have completely or partially lost their combat readiness, and transfer them to eastern Ukraine, where the russian occupiers are defending this environment and then trying to take Mariupol.

The decisive military battle of this war will take place in the East of Ukraine. According to its results, the contours of the future peace, the new system of national, European and world security and the future of Ukraine as an independent state, the fate of the Donbas and the Crimea will be determined by the fighting of the heroic Armed Forces of Ukraine.

2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence.

UK intelligence reports that Ukraine continues to conduct successful but limited counterattacks to the east and northeast of Kyiv.

It is noted that Ukrainian forces also recaptured the villages of Sloboda and Lukashivka in the south of Chernihiv and are now located along one of the main supply routes between the city and Kyiv.

At the same time, both Chernihiv and Kyiv continue to suffer air and missile strikes, despite russia's claims of declining activity in these areas.

Commenting on the withdrawal of the russian troops north and east of the Ukrainian capital on Thursday, a senior Pentagon spokesman said that Kyiv was still in danger and that airstrikes were continuing.

As reported by The Central Intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, purchases of unmanned aerial vehicles, components for military equipment and electronic intelligence for units of the 47th tank division were made through the russian "Promsvyazbank" and "Gazprombank".

3. The russian occupiers continue to violate international humanitarian law.

The russian aggressors continue to kill Ukrainian children. Since the beginning of the war, 153 children have been killed and more than 245 wounded.

According to the prosecutor's office, the most affected children were in the following regions: the Kyiv region- 73, the Donetsk region- 65, the Kharkiv region- 53, the Chernihiv region- 43, the Mykolaiiv region- 30, the Luhansk region- 31, the Zaporizhzhia region- 22, the Kherson region- 29, the Sumy region- 16, the Zhytomyr region- 15. In Kyiv City - 16 children.

On March 31st, a 2-year-old girl from Lysychansk, in the Luhansk region, died of the injuries she has had. She and her 7-year-old brother were seriously injured the day before.

On March 31st, 5 minors injured in the shelling were taken to a medical facility in the Donetsk region.

The russian invaders continue to attack civilians daily. The bombing and shelling damaged 859 educational institutions. 83 of them were completely destroyed. The worst situation is in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Kherson, Mykolaiiv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Kyiv regions and Kyiv City.

For the past 24 hours, on March 31st, the russian occupation forces fired artillery, mortar, and tank shells in the Kharkiv region, in particular in the Saltivka, Pyatykhatka, Oleksiiivka, KHTZ (Kharkiv Tractor Plant), Kholodna Hora, Kulinichi, Velyka Danylivka, and Derhachi districts. In total, about 46 strikes were recorded.

There were also about 170 shellings by the enemy with MLRS type "Grad" and 1 missile strike in the central part of Kharkiv.

As a result of the russian shelling on April 1st, 7 people died in the Donetsk region: 4 in Mar’inka, 2 in Vuhledar and 1 in Novoselivka. Six people were also injured, including three children.

The invaders smashed at least two columns of volunteers carrying humanitarian aid near Chernihiv, killing and wounding people.

The number of victims of a missile strike on the building of the Mykolaiiv regional administration caused by the russian occupiers on March 29th, increased to 28 people.

The abduction of civilians and the taking of hostages continues. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia region, in the city of Enerhodar, in the military unit of the National Guard of Ukraine, the russian occupiers continue to detain local residents suspected of organising pro-Ukrainian actions and plotting sabotage against invaders. FSB officers interrogate them using psychological and physical pressure.

A so-called referendum is planned by the russian occupiers for April 4th in the city of Tokmak. In particular, the occupation administration has already notified the local population about this event.

The Ukrainian authorities conducted a second exchange of prisoners in the "86 to 86" format, including 15 servicewomen.

4. Socio-economic situation in Ukraine, losses due to the russian aggression.

The Ukrainian government is trying to stabilize the socio-economic situation. At a meeting on April 1st, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved a law defining the procedure for nationalising property belonging to the russian citizens and Ukrainians who publicly deny the russian-Ukrainian war.

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved a law guaranteeing full reimbursement of bank deposits to individuals during martial law.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that more than 25,000 applications for compensation for the destroyed real estate of Ukrainians have been submitted to Diia so far. For example, the city authorities of Mariupol estimate that $10 billion is needed to rebuild the destroyed infrastructure.

russia's aggression against Ukraine has a negative impact on the state of the country's economy. In March 2022, the general fund of the state budget received 103.4 billion hryvnias, so the monthly schedule was fulfilled by 92.9%. Expenditures of the general fund of the state budget for January-March amounted to 356.4 billion, which corresponds to 67.8% of the plan for this period.

The war damaged - slowed, reduced and even stopped - 86% of Ukrainian companies. This is stated in the Gradus study Research .

Answering the question “What help from the government do you need today?”, the entrepreneurs put tax breaks in the first place (37%). Secondly, by a wide margin, - assistance with logistics (17%).

Only 3-5% of businesses have increased payments for wages and purchases, 14-19% make payments at the pre-war level. The rest either reduced or stopped payments altogether - 39% did not pay wages, and 29% stopped paying suppliers.

Vladyslav Chechotkin, the founder of the Rozetka online store, wrote a letter to his staff announcing the decision to fire most of the team as a result of the war. He said that the company's monthly turnover fell from 4 billion hryvnias to 23 million hryvnias in three weeks, warehouses were blocked, shops were destroyed, and delivery was interrupted.

A U.S. government spokesman told Reuters that according to the United States, the russian troops have repeatedly damaged granaries in eastern Ukraine.

The official said that because countries in Africa and the Middle East depend on Ukrainian wheat exports, the destruction of these food supplies and warehouses could lead to shortages and rising prices in already vulnerable economies.

5. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine and security guarantees. Roberta Metsola, the European Parliament President said that Ukraine could count on the support of the European Parliament in gaining the status of a candidate country for EU membership.

During an online summit with the Chinese leadership, European Union leaders called on Beijing to help with finishing the war in Ukraine. At this summit, Brussels wants assurances from Beijing that it will not help russia in the war against Ukraine.

According to EU officials, any aid provided to russia will damage China's international reputation and jeopardise relations with its largest trading partners, Europe and the United States. Last year, more than a quarter of China's world trade was with the European Union and the United States, while russia accounted for only 2.4 percent.

The G20 must reconsider the participation of russia and its president putin. This statement was made by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili has said the country is joining all sanctions against russia over the invasion of Ukraine. According to her, Georgia also supports all international resolutions in support of Ukraine. It should be noted that Zourabichvili does not have the authority to announce sanctions, as the country is governed by the Prime Minister under the Constitution.

According to sources interviewed by CNN, it is unlikely that the United States and its allies will eventually offer Ukraine the type of binding protection it is seeking.

Military assistance to Ukraine. Australia will send locally made armoured vehicles to Ukraine at the request of President Zelenskyy. In particular, this is an armoured personnel carrier Bushmasters, bulletproof vests and more.

The Ministry of Defence of Germany has decided to approve the supply of infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine from the reserves of the former GDR, which are now in the Czech Republic. These are 56-58 BMP (PbV-501, formerly known as BMP-1), equipped with a cannon and machine guns.

American actor Sean Penn has issued an appeal to billionaires to step forward to purchase fighter jets for Ukraine. He said that $300 million could purchase “12 aircraft with better tech than russian MiGs or SU's”.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The European Commission has approved a proposal to convert cash hryvnia into the currency of host Member States fleeing the war in Ukraine.

6. Provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.

The russian investigators have accused 22 Ukrainians of "genocide of the russian-speaking population" in the Donbas area. Among the participants are ex-Minister of Defence of Ukraine Valerii Heletey, former Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Viktor Muzhenko and 20 other Ukrainian servicemen.

According to the russian media, the Investigative Committee of the russian federation since 2014 has opened almost 600 criminal cases over the events in Ukraine.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine emphasises that the statement of the russian federation about the alleged refusal of Ukraine to comply with the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War is not true.

Earlier, the russian Foreign Intelligence Service said that Ukraine had allegedly informed the UK that it did not intend to abide by the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War.

The spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleh Nikolenko called the statement a disinformation, recalling that russia had previously created many fakes about Ukraine.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces, "wounded" servicemen of the Armed Forces of the russian federation, who received significant doses of radiation during their stay in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, are being placed  in the Gomel Republican Scientific and Practical Centre for Radiation Medicine and Human Ecology, in the territory of the Republic of Belarus.

7. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

Under the influence of propaganda and misinformation, russian society is demonstrating significant support for putin. 81% of russians trust russian president putin and 79% positively evaluate his activities, according to the russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTSVGD).

This is evidenced by the ratings of the centre's research on April 1st, which are submitted without data on the number of respondents and statistical error

Western countries are persistently promoting the application of the oil embargo, applying compensatory measures. Oil prices continue to fall on April 1st in a statement by US President Joe Biden’s intention to market an average of 1 million barrels of oil per day from the US strategic reserve over the next six months.

The price of Brent oil futures on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures is $104.35 per barrel, which is $ 0.36 (0.34%) lower than the closing price of the previous session.

On the evening of April 1st, the US President Joe Biden said that more than 30 countries had joined a campaign to saturate the oil market to reduce prices for this energy resource.

Information Defence analysts believe that such a measure will keep or reduce oil prices, even if russian oil will not be traded on the world market.

New sanctions and restrictions are being imposed on russia, which is having a negative impact on the russian economy. In March, production activity in russia demonstrated a sharp decline since the first wave of the pandemic - analysts attribute this to increased delivery times and an acute shortage of materials.

Thus, the index of business activity (PMI) of manufacturing industries in russia fell sharply in March to 44.1 points from 48.6 points in February, according to rating agency S&P Global.