12:13 12.03.2022

Author IHOR ZHDANOV

Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 12th, 2022

12 min read
Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 12th, 2022

Igor Zhdanov, the Minister of Youth and sports in Ukraine (2014-2019), a public and political figure, Maidan commandant during the Revolution of Dignity, member of the Maidan Council, candidate of political sciences, ATO volunteer, analyst of the NGO "Open Policy Foundation"

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, morning of March 12th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The russian occupiers have not achieved success in any of their operational areas and are suffering losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Defence Forces of Ukraine are repelling and restraining the offensive operation of the russian Armed Forces in all directions.

The enemy in the Polissia, Siverskyi, and Pivdennobuzkyi operational areas has sustained heavy losses in manpower and equipment. The occupiers have been prevented from regaining a foothold on previously captured frontiers.

In the Donetsk direction, while trying to go ahead, the occupiers received a decent rebuff from the Ukrainian Defenders and were stopped in some directions; in the rest, the enemy forces significantly reduced their speed.

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 12.03 were approximately:  combatants - more than 12 thousand people; armored combat vehicles (BBM) - 1205 units; automotive equipment - 585; tanks - 362; artillery systems - 135; helicopters - 83; multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) - 62; fuel and lubricant tanks (fuel and lubricants) - 60; aircraft - 58; means of air defense (air defense) - 33; drones (UAVs) operational and tactical level - 7; ships / boats - 3.

Since the beginning of hostilities, 31 battalion tactical groups of the enemy operating in Ukraine have completely or partially lost their combat capability.

Ukrainian fighters killed the commander of the 29th Army of the Eastern Military District of Russia, Major General Andriy Kolesnikov.

Ukrainian citizens are ready to defend their homeland and are going en masse to military enlistment offices. The Ministry of Defence notes that the mobilization infrastructure is experiencing a climax, but assures that the staffing is occurring according to plan; the military enlistment offices are simply innundated by a wave of volunteers who want to join the defence of our country.

2. The russian occupiers continue to violate international humanitarian law by killing civilians in Ukraine.

Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has suffered heavy civilian casualties.

In the 12 days of the blockade of Mariupol, 1582 peaceful Mariupol residents have been killed by russian occupation troops and the ruthless shelling of residential neighborhoods.

During the direct russian aggression in the Kharkiv region, 201 civilians have been killed, including 11 children, 10 civilians in the last 24 hours, and 3 children.

In just one day, russian troops in the Donetsk region killed 5 civilians, including a little girl, In the Luhansk region 6 civilians were killed and one person died in the result of the explosion in Korosten in the Zhytomyr region.

At night of March 11th, due to cruise missile fire in the village, 6 people were injured in Baryshivka, in the Brovary district, Kyiv region, including a Radio Svoboda journalist.

Unable to succeed at the front, the enemy continues to launch missile and bomb strikes on cities in Ukraine - Dnipro, Lutsk, and Ivano-Frankivsk.

Lutsk has so far confirmed information concerning four dead and six injured in strikes at a local airfield.

The russian occupiers are committing criminal offenses: they have kidnapped the mayor of the captured Melitopol Ivan Fedorov. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated that this abduction qualifies as a war crime under the Geneva Conventions and the Additional Protocols, which prohibit the taking of civilian hostages during the war.

On the morning of March 12th, residents of the temporarily occupied Melitopol went to a rally demanding that the occupiers release Mayor Ivan Fedorov.

The destruction of critical civilian infrastructure by russian invaders continues. The damage the russian army has inflicted on Ukraine’s infrastructure is at least $ 120 billion, or nearly UAH 3.6 trillion.

More than half a million subscribers are without electricity in the Sumy region. There are also problems with gas supply in the region.

In Kharkiv, about 350 houses were without heating due to the shelling - people will be relocated to schools, but almost 50 schools have been destroyed.

Public pressure on NATO countries continues demanding a no-fly zone over Ukraine. The mayors of a number of Ukrainian cities appealed to local governments around the world to support the demands to close the sky over Ukraine and strengthen sanctions against russia, as well as Ukraine’s aspirations for European and Euro-Atlantic integration.

The mayors, in particular, the mayors of Kharkiv, Dnipro, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Mariupol, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Lviv, Lutsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kramatorsk, Trostianets, Rivne and Zhytomyr, signed this petition with a demand to close the sky. In addition to the mayors of large cities, this appeal has already been supported by representatives of almost 800 communities.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there is a high probability that russia will intensify terrorist methods of hostilities, launch missile and bomb strikes on civilian infrastructure, residential areas, intimidate local people, conduct informational and psychological actions to undermine public confidence in government on the ground, disseminate misinformation, among the local population.

3. There was a partial evacuation of the Ukrainian people through humanitarian corridors, despite the provocations of the russian invaders.

On March 11th, in Ukraine there were 12 humanitarian corridors for evacuation from settlements attacked by russian troops in various regions.

On Friday, 1,800 people were evacuated from Bucha, the Kyiv oblast.

In the evening of March 11th, evacuees from Enerhodar were brought by bus to Zaporizhzhia.

Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk stated that on March 11th it was not possible to evacuate people from Izium, Andriiivka, Mykulychi, Makarov, Borodianka, Mariupol, and Volnovakha.

It was not possible to evacuate people from Izium to Lozova, the Kharkiv region due to mortar shelling by the occupiers. The buses returned to Lozova.

It was not possible to evacuate people from the villages Andriiivka and Mykulychi in the Kyiv region to Zhytomyr because the occupiers did not give permission and ordered the buses to turn around and go back.

There was no evacuation from Makariv in the Kyiv region to Zhytomyr, as the occupiers violated the ceasefire on the route.

Also, due to violations of the ceasefire by the occupiers, the evacuation from Borodianka, the Kyiv region, to Zhytomyr did not take place.

There was also no evacuation from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia.

Generally, more than 7,000 people were evacuated in one day. On Saturday, March 12th, a new attempt will be made to evacuate people through the humanitarian corridors.

 

4. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

 

A number of European Union countries are dissatisfied with the lack of an unequivocal decision of the European Summit to grant Ukraine “EU candidate status.” The Prime Minister of Slovenia Janez Janša acknowledged that Ukraine should have received more ambitious signals, but he hoped for a change in the position of colleagues and stressed that the new realities required clearer signals of membership for Ukraine than those included in the final decision.

Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Ihor Zhovkva stated that Ukraine is ready to do its “homework” in order to join the EU before the end of the war, and asked the EU to give the “green light”.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba believes that the decision of the European Council regarding Ukraine means a revolution in our rapprochement with the EU.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive new consignments of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons from the United States after the Senate passes a bill that includes $ 3.5 billion to "replenish US stockpiles of equipment sent to Ukraine."

The Ministry of the Economy together with the governments of other countries are looking for a mechanism to transfer to Ukraine 415 billion seized gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of russia, which were seized as a result of sanctions imposed on russia.

5. Fakes of russian propaganda and provocations of the russian occupiers.

On March 11th, russian troops bombed border settlements Kopany, Bukhlychi and Verkhniy Terebezhiv in Belarus. No one was injured in the bombings on Belarusian territory.

An insidious provocation was carried out in order to involve the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus in a military operation against Ukraine on the side of Russia, but it failed.

According to Ukrainian intelligence agency, the russian occupiers plan to carry out a terrorist attack in the “exclusion zone” in Chornobyl and then blame Ukraine.

The russian-controlled Chornobyl nuclear power plant plans to create a fabricated catastrophe, for which the occupiers will try to shift responsibility to Ukraine.

It will be recalled that in one of the previous reviews we reported that russian air strikes damaged the Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology and the De-Neutral Nuclear Research Subcritical Unit and this could lead to radiation pollution.

Now, Russia’s Defence Ministry alleges that Ukraine has blown up the institute itself in order to hide its nuclear research, and 50 people may be trapped inside.

Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine Oleksii Danilov emphasized that the international community should recognize russia is a state engaged in nuclear terrorism.

The military and diplomats of the aggressor country are spreading lies about the alleged production of biological weapons in Ukrainian laboratories. In particular, russia accuses Ukraine of “breeding new strains of disease” and even convenes the UN Security Council on this issue.

On Friday, The United Nations stated that they had no evidence that Ukraine had a biological weapons program, while Washington and its allies accused russia of spreading unproven statements as a possible prelude to its own biological or chemical attacks.

Russia threatens the world with the information that the occupiers are ready to give the weapons seized in Ukraine by the russian military, including portable anti-aircraft missile systems and anti-tank guided missiles, to ORDLO combatants.

In order to spread fake news and brainwash the russians, the Prosecutor General's Office of russia asks to limit the country’s access to Instagram and appeal to the court to declare Meta an extremist organization.

russia's Prosecutor General's Office has asked Roskomnadzor to restrict access to Instagram in connection with “the dissemination of information materials that call for violence against Russians, including the military.” A few hours after this appeal, Roskomnadzor announced that it would block Instagram.

6. Sanctions against russia are intensifying, and more and more companies are leaving the russian market.

Western countries continue to increase economic sanctions against russia.

In his conversation with the US President Joe Biden, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi agreed on further steps to support Ukraine’s defence support for Ukraine and increase sanctions on russia.

US President Joe Biden has announced new sanctions against Russia, including the abolition of trade privileges by the United States and the G7 countries, as well as a new embargo on Russian diamonds, seafood and vodka.

The United States has also banned exports of US dollars to russia. In response, the Central Bank of the russian rederation additionally banned the issuance of cash currency to citizens from transfers and foreign currency accounts.

The US Treasury Department has published a list of people who have come under new US sanctions - including 10 top officials of VTB Bank, the management company of Bank of russia, as well as oligarch Viktor Vekselberg.

The European Union has prepared a fourth package of sanctions against russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.

The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen states this in a statement: “First, we will deprive russia of the status of the most supportive in our markets. We guarantee that russia will not be able to receive financing, loans, or any other benefits from these institutions.”

The EU also plans to continue the pressure on russia’s elites close to putin, as well as their families. Imports of key goods in the metallurgical sector from russia will also be banned. The European Commission will also propose a severe ban on new European investments in russia's energy sector.

The United Kingdom has announced a freeze on assets and a travel ban on 386 russian Duma deputies who voted for the “independence” of the pseudo-republics of Donbas. The new sanctions will ban people on the list from traveling to the UK, accessing assets if they are in the country, and doing business here.

Canada has imposed sanctions on five russians, including billionaire Roman Abramovich, and is banning 32 Russian companies and government agencies from receiving defence equipment from Canada.

The IMF considers russia’s default on foreign debt quite probable. They also predict a deep recession. russia’s economy is shrinking and the recession in russia will be deep.

Peskov, a spokesman for russian president putin, said that there were no conditions for russia’s default, “unless they are created and set artificially.” In addition, this closest ally of putin offered an original means of paying off russia’s dollar foreign debt in the style of “to whom I owe - I forgive everyone” - to pay off all debts in russian roubles.

In the two weeks since russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the aggressor has suffered perhaps the worst fall since the crisis of the 1990s, which has already cut russia’s GDP by $ 30 billion, or 9% in 2022.

Big business continues to leave the russian trade market.

American antivirus developer NortonLifeLock has suspended sales in russia and Belarus - it is also impossible to update already downloaded Norton programs.

Tobacco manufacturer British American Tobacco known for brands such as Pall Mall, Lucky Strike, Glo, Kent and Rothmans will leave russia.

The Ministry of Finance of the russian federation is thinking about the mechanism of forced redemption of shares owned by residents of ‘unfriendly’ states, but does not know how to avoid risks for domestic investors.

Leroy Merlin, a member of the French group Adeo, will continue to operate in the russian market despite the aggressor's war and mass boycotts of its business sector.

Due to sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign companies, jobs in russia haves decreased by 100 thousand, and by the end of the year about 9 million russians may lose their jobs.

 

 

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