14:16 08.03.2022

Author IHOR ZHDANOV

Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 8th, 2022

10 min read
Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 8th, 2022

Igor Zhdanov, the Minister of Youth and sports in Ukraine (2014-2019), a public and political figure, Maidan commandant during the Revolution of Dignity, member of the Maidan Council, candidate of political sciences, ATO volunteer, analyst of the NGO "Open Policy Foundation"

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, morning of March 8th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The russian aggressor is stopped in all directions and bears losses.

The enemy continues the offensive attack, but the pace of advance of the troops has slowed significantly.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during the past 24hrs, russian troops have been regrouping to organise the storming of Kyiv. The occupiers plan to carry out the assault by using the most combat-ready units of the Ramzan Kadyrov Rosguard Special Regiment (Grozny), the 27th Kuzbass Detachment (Kemerovo), the 604th Vityaz Center (Moscow) of the Rosguard and the Liga Private Military Company (formerly Wagner).

On the night of March 6-7th, Ukrainian soldiers covered the Chornobaiivka airfield near Kherson. The occupiers decided to partially place their fleet there. 30 enemy helicopters, manpower, and equipment were destroyed.

Last night on approaches to Mykolaiiv 3 columns of the enemy were destroyed, the Ukrainian defenders seized trophies, a large number of ammunition, wheeled equipment, seven units of D-20 howitzers. russian invaders were driven out of the Mykolaiiv airport.

During the fighting near Kharkiv, Vitaly Gerasimov, a russian military leader, major general, chief of staff and first deputy commander of the 41st Army of the Central Military District of russia, was killed.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the total combat losses of the enemy since the beginning of the war that russia initiated against Ukraine amounted to approximately 12,000 combatants.

In addition, the enemy lost 303 tanks, 1,036 armoured combat vehicles, 120 artillery systems, 56 multiple rocket launchers, 27 air defence, 48 aircraft, 80 helicopters, 474 vehicles, 3 ships, 60 fuel tanks, 7 drones.

The data are still being refined, as the calculation is complicated by the high intensity of hostilities.

A senior US Department of Defence officially informed that almost 100% of russia's combat power already deployed for the invasion in Ukraine. The Pentagon has recorded that russia has launched more than 625 missiles in Ukraine.

2. The russian aggressor continues to kill civilians in Ukraine.

According to the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, russian invaders in the occupied territories are compiling lists of Ukrainians who are “unreliable” and to whom it is planned to apply measures of influence.

In the territories of Kherson and Mykolaiiv regions, which are temporarily occupied by the enemy, after February 24th, 2022, the occupiers use methods of psychological warfare to influence the local population.

According to the available information, up to 10 tactical groups have been created for the purposes of psychological warfare with the tasks of conducting propaganda among the local population.

At the same time, Ukrainians continue peaceful resistance in the occupied territories. Pro-Ukrainian rallies are held daily in Berdiansk, which is temporarily occupied by russian troops. Residents of occupied Starobilsk in the Luhansk region removed the flag of the so-called “LPR” (“LNR”/“ЛНР” in Ukrainian) from the flagpole.

According to representatives of European intelligence, the russian FSB was instructed to maintain political order in the captured cities and to prepare punitive operations to break the resistance of the population.

This information was published by the British newspaper “Financial Times”. According to the analysts, the use of terror to enslave the warring population is a tried and tested tactic, inexpensive and effective.

This information is confirmed by the specific actions of the occupiers. In the Zaporizhzhia region, the russian military fired on an Ukrposhta car and destroyed it: two post office workers who were delivering pensions were killed.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained an entire “unit” of militants of the terrorist “DPR” (“ДНР” in Ukrainian) consisting of 13 occupiers who fired on civilians, housing estates and critical infrastructure in Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Volnovakha, Sartan, and Talakivka.

As a result of the air bombardment of Sumy by russian invaders that night, at least 9 people were killed, including 2 children.

In Kharkiv, on March 7th, 10 people died as a result of shelling by the russian occupiers, and another minor was taken to the intensive care unit.

The occupiers are demoralised and increasingly looting and violating the rules of international humanitarian law on military conflict.

Thus, in the Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kyiv regions, in the territories temporarily occupied by the russian occupiers, instances of robberies, violence against local residents, seizure of civilian housing, use of agricultural buildings to park military equipment, the setting up of firing positions are widely recorded in the area and within civilian infrastructure facilities.

A hearing on Ukraine’s lawsuit against russia in genocide cases began at the UN International Court of Justice on Monday.

On March 7th, the Ukrainian delegation presented its legal position in the UN International Court of Justice in the case against russia, in accordance with the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

3. russia is cynically using the creation of humanitarian corridors to spread fakes  information.

russia is absolutely cynical in using human lives in its propaganda. Thus, Ukraine received an official appeal from russia, in which it was proposed, at the personal request of French President Macron, to declare a ceasefire from 10 am on March 7th and open the following humanitarian corridors: 1) from Kyiv to Gomel (Belarus), followed by air transport to russia; 2) from Kharkiv to Belgorod (russia); 3) from Sumy to Belgorod (russia).

Ukraine indicated the “evacuation” of people to russia and Belarus unacceptable and asked to support the evacuation routes, among which the final cities are Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia.

President of France Macron harshly criticised the russian president putin because of russia's position on “green corridors” for the withdrawal of Ukrainian civilians from the war zone. The President of France called russia’s proposal to provide protection to the civilian population in order to deport these people to russia “hypocritical”.

At the same time, about 2,000 people were evacuated from russian-occupied Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel through a humanitarian corridor organised by the Ukrainian authorities on March 6-7th, but more than 4,000 people still need to be evacuated from the outskirts of the capital.

4. The third round of Ukrainian-russian talks.

The third round of talks between the delegation of Ukraine and the delegation of the aggressor country began on March 7th in the afternoon. In fact, the talks ended without significant results, while the Ukrainian side announced cautious agreements to improve the logistics of humanitarian corridors.

Apparently, as a result of the talks, the russian occupiers announced that they were ready to open humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of the population of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Sumy, and Chernihiv at 10 am on March 8th.

We have the first results of Turkish mediation. The Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of this country Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said that a tripartite meeting of the foreign ministers of Turkey, Ukraine, and russia would take place in Antalya on Thursday, March 10th . The meeting will take place within the framework of the Diplomatic Forum in Antalya, which was agreed to be attended by Sergei Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba .

4. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

The President of the European Council Charles Michel stated that Ukraine’s application for membership in the European Union will be discussed in the coming days. At the same time, several EU countries have opposed granting Ukraine a candidate status this week.

Germany, the Netherlands and other countries want the European Commission to express first its views on Ukraine’s readiness for membership before making a political decision.

According to experts in Information Defence, the position of these countries indicates nothing more than delaying the issue of granting Ukraine the status of a candidate for EU membership.

Financial and military assistance to Ukraine continues. The World Bank has approved an additional $ 723 million support package for Ukraine.

In total, 15 countries, including the United States, provide military assistance to Ukraine.

5. International sanctions against the aggressor country and the socio-economic and political situation in russia.

Preparations of a new package of international financial and economic sanctions against russia are underway, including the embargo on Russian oil imports.

The world must give up russian oil and oil products in order not to sponsor terrorism, said the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi.

The United States is considering an embargo on oil imports from russia  The Joe Biden Administration is ready to impose a ban on russian oil imports to the United States without the involvement of allies in Europe.

At this week’s summit, the European Union leaders will agree on the EU's phasing out of russian energy imports. However, such a refusal will be difficult for the eurozone, as the EU buys 45 % of its imported gas from russia, and russia also covers about a third of European oil needs and almost half of its coal needs.

However, Australia’s largest oil companies Ampol and Viva Energy have already stopped buying russian oil because of the war in Ukraine.

European governments are close to preparing a new set of sanctions against russia, which includes possible actions against ports and ships, expanding the sanctions list, and further restrictions on technology used in military equipment.

The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced an expansion of the list of sanctioned legal entities and individuals in russia. In addition to the previously published list, Japanese sanctions included Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the russian president, Dmitry Kozak and Sergei Kiriyenko, deputy heads of the presidential administration, Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic, Alisher Usmanov, russian businessmen Gennady Timchenko, and the Rottenber brothers.

Already five Western countries are in favour of disqualifying russia from participating in Interpol in connection with its aggressive war against Ukraine.

russia is threatened with default on payments on foreign bonds.

The grace period for russian foreign bonds in 2023 and 2043 ends on April 15 – russia's chances of making payments are dwindling, and the delay in payments in April will mean a default “as in Venezuela.”

According to Morgan Stanley & Co, russia's chances of repaying its foreign debt are declining as bond prices fall, the country recedes and restrictions on post-invasion payments increase.

On the morning of March 7th, the ruble fell by more than 10% at international trades to 138 rubles per US dollar.

Multinational corporations are closing their businesses in russia, which means the elimination of hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Following PwC and KPMG, audit companies Ernst & Young and Deloitte announced their withdrawal from the russian market.

Levi brand group Strauss & Co has informed about their suspending of operations in russia, including Levi's, Dockers, and Signature.

Tech giant Apple has stopped advertising applications on the App site Store in russia.

Colliers, a commercial real estate consulting company, has ceased operations in russia after more than 28 years of cooperation in that country.

Finnish food producers Valio and Paulig are leaving the russian market due to the war in Ukraine. Valio has a processed cheese factory near Moscow, contract production partners and sales offices in St. Petersburg and Moscow. In russia, Valio employs about 400 people.

The annual turnover of russian companies Valio is about 85 million euros. Valio's subsidiary in russia is 100% owned by Finland. russia and neighbouring countries are one of the activities of Paulig. The company has a coffee roasting plant in Tver. Its products are sold mainly in russia. In russia, Paulig has about 200 employees.

***

The enemy is demoralised and bears its losses. The occupiers resort to psychological terror, kill civilians, but they do not break the will and morale of Ukrainians. The situation in russia is deteriorating, foreign production is closing, hundreds of thousands of russians are losing their jobs.

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