Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of the past day of April 26th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine heroically restrain the enemy's attacks in the decisive battle for the Donbas.

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian defenders had relieved 931 settlements from occupation.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the groups of enemy troops are carrying out offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone. The main goal remains the encirclement and defeat of the united Forces there, the establishment of full control over the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the provision of a land corridor with the occupied Crimea.

In the Slobozhanskyi direction, enemy groups from the 6th Military Army of the Western Military District, the coastal troops of the Baltic and Northern Fleets continue to partially block Kharkiv and fire on the city.

In the Izium direction, units and subdivisions of the enemy from the 1st Panzer Army, 20th and 35th Armies, 68th Army Corps and Airborne Troops, supported by artillery, are advancing in the direction of Barvinkove .

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy is taking active action along almost the entire line of the contact zone. The main efforts are focused on taking control of Rubizhne, Popasna and Mar’inka; the enemy is building up a group of troops to develop the attacks in the direction of the settlement of Lyman.

russian invaders have continued artillery shelling and air strikes on Mariupol. The blockade of Ukrainian troops near the Azovstal plant continues.

On the territory of the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova, units of the operational group of russian troops have been put on alert "Completely", the security forces have been transferred to an enhanced mode of “service”.

The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to April 26 were approximately: combatants – approximately 22,100 (+200) people were eliminated, tanks - 918 (+34) units, armoured combat vehicles - 2308 (+50) units, artillery systems - 416 (+5) units, MLRS - 149 (+0) units, air defence means - 69 (+0) units, aircraft - 184 (+3) units, helicopters - 154 (+0) units, automotive equipment - 1643 (+77) units, ships / boats - 8 (+0) units, fuel tanks - 76 (+0), UAVs of operational and tactical level - 205 (+4), special equipment - 31 (+3), launchers TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) - 4 (+0).

In the east of Ukraine, fighters of the operational and tactical group "East" killed up to 160 enemy combatants and destroyed enemy equipment per day. In general, 6 enemy attacks were repulsed in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions.

A week has passed since the beginning of the so-called “great offensive of the russian army in the Donbas.” russia's top military and political leadership, according to intelligence, has set a goal for the command of the occupying forces to achieve the strategic success of the operations and surround the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by May 9th.

The enemy has not achieved any strategic or operational success, its advance in the direction of the main strike is limited to a few, at least ten kilometers. According to Information Defence analysts, the rigid timing of the end of operations leads to the dominance of political priorities over the purely military objectives of the operation.

The russian command was unable to create real offensive groups, fully restore the combat effectiveness of the demoralised BTGs previously used near Kyiv, and create a second successful movement.

Project experts note that the occupiers' offensive actions are characterised by sluggishness and insufficient operational speed. To break through the defence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a large number of infantry are used, who ruthlessly refer to the assault on the positions of the Ukrainian military as "cannon fodder". Orders are issued demanding that a settlement be taken at any cost, which leads to great losses of manpower and equipment of the russian occupiers.

According to Information Defence analysts, the large number of russian tanks (34 units) and armoured combat vehicles (50 units) shot down over the past 24 hours (April 25th) can be explained on the one hand by the massive use of enemy armoured vehicles to attack Ukrainian positions. On the other hand, we have a really skilful use of modern domestic and foreign anti-tank weapons by servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The enemy's plan to surround the environmental group in the Donbas failed, it is necessary to finally deplete the occupying forces, bleed them, "knock out" armoured vehicles and, ultimately, deprive the enemy of any offensive potential.

The next stage of the Ukrainian-russian war will be the organisation of a decisive counterattack of the Armed Forces, during which the accumulated strategic and operational reserves, stocks of modern weapons and heavy offensive equipment, which Ukraine has received recently, will be used.

2. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.

According to the reviews of UK intelligence, russian forces are apparently trying to surround the well-fortified Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine.

Kreminna as it is reported has fallen, and there is a heavy fighting in the south of Izium. russian troops try to advance into the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north and east. Ukrainian forces are preparing the defence of Zaporizhzhia in case of a possible attack by russia from the south, the ministry official has added.

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine in unrecognised Transnistria a few days ago, there were preparations for "explosions" organized by the FSB to justify the war with Ukraine or to involve the Transnistrian region in hostilities in the war against Ukraine.

Ukraine recognises this is one of a series of provocative measures organised by the FSB to fuel panic and anti-Ukrainian sentiment.

3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide against Ukrainians.

The russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. 608 children were injured in Ukraine as a result of the armed aggression of the russian federation. According to officials, 217 children were killed and more than 391 were injured.

Most children were affected in the Donetsk (127), Kyiv (114), Kharkiv (93), Chernihiv (66), Kherson (44), Mykolaiiv (43), Luhansk (37), Zaporizhzhia (27), Sumy (17) and Zhytomyr (15) regions, as well as in Kyiv City (16).

In particular, on April 25th, two children aged 9 and 13 died of their injuries as a result of the russian occupiers’ shelling of residential buildings in Lyman in the Donetsk region.

The russian occupiers kill and abduct civilians, hold them hostage and torture them. russians continue to grossly violate international rules for the treatment of prisoners of war. The Security Service of Ukraine has evidence of torture of Ukrainian men and women in the occupied territory of Ukraine and in the territory of the russian federation.

The russian military in Mariupol does not give food to men until they are involved in work, including dismantling debris, arranging mass graves, and so on.

In the occupied Kherson, the occupiers and collaborators held a meeting at which they appointed the so-called "head" of the Kherson Regional State Administration Volodymyr Saldo and the "head" of the Kherson City Administration Oleksandr Kobets.

The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. On the morning of April 26th (the day of the Chornobyl disaster), two russian cruise missiles flew at low altitudes over the Zaporizhzhia NPP in the direction of Zaporizhzhia, threatening the nuclear security of Ukraine and the world.

On the night of April 26th, the russian occupiers continued to fire on the east and south of Ukraine, the worst situation was in the Donbas and Kherson regions.

During the night of April 26th, 35 air strikes were carried out on Azovstal, civilians who are blockaded at the plant were injured

In the Kharkiv region, the intensity of night shelling on April 26th has decreased. The occupiers shelled the city during the day, as well as the Zolochivskyi district and Derhachi.

There were 17 shelling attacks in the Luhansk region during a day. Popasna, Lysychansk, and the Hirske Community suffered mostly. Popasna withstood four powerful artillery attacks, while Lysychansk withstood two of them. The houses were damaged there.

The night was restless in Donetsk region. It is currently known that there are three wounded civilians: two in Mar’inka , one in Velyka Novosilka.

In the Mykolaiiv area, there were night attacks on the city. It is known about one victim: a man died in his own house as a result of a shrapnel wound.

A tense situation is in the Kherson region. Explosions and shelling took place almost throughout the region.

4. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to russian aggression.

The government and society demonstrate unity, patriotism and faith in victory. Today, the Unified Database of Internally Displaced Persons contains information on 3.4 million people.

More than 2 million of them are people who were displaced after the martial law. And 1.9 million of them were forced to move for the first time.

The Supreme Anti-Corruption Court has lifted the seizure of funds in a criminal case for trying to bribe the leadership of anti-corruption bodies for $6 million and transferred them to the army.

Economic losses due to russian aggression. russia's GDP will recover after sanctions in 10 years, Ukraine's GDP growth will reach pre-war levels in five years, despite a much deeper decline. This is stated in the forecast of S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The outflow of foreign currency and valuables by residents and non-residents of Ukraine to the European Union since February 24th reached three billion euros.

As of April 26th, 868 settlements in Ukraine remain without electricity due to the intensification of hostilities by the russian federation and the emergence of new damage.

5. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Military assistance to Ukraine. On Tuesday, April 26th, a conference was held at the US Air Force base "Ramstein" in Germany, where representatives of twenty countries discussed support for Ukraine. During the conference, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov delivered a message from Kyiv.

Among other things, Ukraine needs air defence and UAVs, artillery systems, multiple rocket launchers, tanks, armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, aircraft, anti-ship missiles.

On April 25th, the US State Department issued a declaration of state of emergency to approve a potential sale of $165 million worth of ammunition to Ukraine to help protect the country from russian invasion.

The Pentagon said the package could include artillery ammunition for howitzers, tanks and grenade launchers, such as 152-mm shells for 2A36 Hyacinth; 152-mm shells for the D-20 gun; VOG-17 for the AGS-17 automatic grenade launcher; 125 mm caliber ammunition for the T-72 and 152 mm for the 2A65 “Msta-B” (howitzer).

The Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki on Polish channels confirmed the transfer of tanks to Ukraine.

Last week, the UK Ministry of Defence confirmed that the UK is sending major battle tanks Challenger 2 to Poland to replace T-72 tanks that Poland would send to Ukraine.

Financial assistance to Ukraine. The UK has lifted all tariffs and restrictions on Ukrainian exports under a free trade agreement that was due to work for Ukraine from 2023 onwards. From now, all tariffs and quotas covered by the trade agreement between the UK and Ukraine, i.e. primarily for agricultural and industrial products, have been abolished.

Such a step "will provide Ukraine with economic support in difficult times," the UK government said.

Denmark became the first donor to a fund set up by the Energy Community to rebuild Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

The Prime Minister of Bulgaria Kiril Petkov launched a fundraising campaign for Ukraine and called on citizens to donate a monthly salary, as he did.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The United Kingdom donated 22 ambulances and 40 fire engines with equipment to Ukraine.

6. Statements, provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.

On April 25th , the russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov announced the real risk of the nuclear war. According to him, the risk of nuclear war is real, and this danger "cannot be underestimated."

He has also said that the russian-Ukrainian war will end with the signing of an agreement, but everything will depend on the course of hostilities.

russians may plan provocative explosions on the dam of the Karlovy Vary Reservoir in the Donetsk region.

The Center for Countering Disinformation notes that this may be an informational and psychological operation of the occupiers, but the possibility of implementing such a plan cannot be completely ruled out.

The kremlin is threatening Ukraine "with its head of the DPR (Donetsk Peoples Republic) militants, Denis Pushylin”, emphasising “what is happening in Transnistria.”

RIA Novosti reported that Pushylin allegedly has said: "after reaching the borders of the Donetsk region" it is necessary to begin "the next stage of the operation, taking into account what is happening in Transnistria and the shelling of the border regions with russia."

russia's Ministry of Defence is threatening to strike at "decision-making centres" in Kyiv if Ukraine attacks facilities in russia.

7. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. Poland has approved its first sanctions list, which includes russia's Gazprom, a number of russian and Belarusian oligarchs - 50 legal entities and individuals.

Due to the war in Ukraine, large commercial banks in Estonia are suspending payments to russia and Belarus, as well as accepting payments from these countries.

German Minister of Economy Robert Habeck has said that he is ready to cut off russian oil supplies.

The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. Volvo Cars and Jaguar Land Rover after General Motors is downsizing its russian offices - JLR is actually leaving russia, leaving only staff in the state to coordinate administrative interactions at the closing of the legal entity.

Against the background of sanctions and violations of logistics, telecom operators have stopped investing in the development of networks - there is already a shortage of foreign equipment for the development of telecommunications networks.