13:44 26.03.2022

Author IHOR ZHDANOV

Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 26th, 2022

14 min read
Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 26th, 2022

Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, morning of March 26th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The russian occupiers have not achieved success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the occupiers are trying to intensify the activities of sabotage and reconnaissance groups in Kyiv in order to destabilise the socio-political situation and disrupt the system of public and military administration.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy continues to regroup their units to resume offensive attacks in order to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Fierce battles continue for Mariupol.

In these areas, the Ukrainian military repulsed 9 attacks by the russian troops. Ukrainian soldiers destroyed 8 Russian tanks, 17 armoured units, and 11 units of enemy vehicles. The total losses of the russian troops in these areas amounted to 170 people.

Last night, fighters of a separate Azov Special Forces unit destroyed 5 trucks and 2 combat vehicles of the russian occupiers, as well as more than two dozen invaders.

Air defence units shot down three enemy planes and three Orlan-10 enemy drones in the skies of the Ukrainian Donbas.

In general, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 12 enemy air targets (3 planes, 3 UAVs, a helicopter and 5 cruise missiles) during the previous day. Shock aircraft of the Air Force under the cover of fighters inflicted devastating missile and bomb strikes on columns of equipment and clusters of the troops of the occupiers.

In Chornobaiivka near Kherson, the Ukrainian military killed Lieutenant General and Commander of the 49th Russian Army Yakov Rezantsev.

Since the beginning of the war, the Security Service of Ukraine has detained more than 350 members of the DRG (in English: RSG - The Reconnaissance and Sabotage Groups) and eliminated international channels for recruiting mercenaries for the occupying army.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the russian federation, 1,351 servicemen were killed and 3,825 were wounded during the special military operation. This is 10 times less than reliable Ukrainian and American sources provide.

The daily public summary of British intelligence reports and emphasises that Ukrainian troops have managed to retake cities and defensive positions within a radius of 35 km east of Kyiv.

Ukrainian forces are likely to continue attempts to push russian troops northwest of Kyiv to Hostomel airfield, it was reported.

In southern Ukraine, russian forces still try to bypass Mykolaiiv, trying to go west toward Odesa, but their progress is slowing due to problems with Ukraine's logistics and resistance, according to British intelligence.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have more tanks than they had at the beginning of the war due to their capture from the russian army.

After the russian invasion on February 24th, Ukraine lost at least 74 tanks - they were destroyed or captured (source - Forbes). At the same time, the Armed Forces seized at least 117 russian tanks, according to analysts from open sources who carefully study photos and videos on social networks.

Meanwhile, the newspaper has informed that the russians have seized at least 37 Ukrainian tanks, which is not enough to compensate for the loss of “about 274 tanks that are supposed to have been lost.”

According to the General Staff, the Russians lost 530 tanks.

In the Poltava region, law enforcement officers confiscated 11 enemy tanks from local residents, which somehow ended up in their possession after the russian invasion. Besides, 2 armoured cars, 33 weapons, and more than 4200 blasters were confiscated (see the picture).

Рисунок 1

russian invaders have been demoralised. The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration has said that on March 24th, 70 russian servicemen in Melitopol staged a riot and refused to obey orders from their leaders.

2. The russian occupiers continue to violate international humanitarian law.

russian aggressors continue to kill Ukrainian children. According to the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, as of the morning of March 25th, 2022, 135 children died in Ukraine due to the armed aggression of the russian federation, and another 184 children were injured.

Children mostly suffered in the following regions: the Kyiv region - 64, the Kharkiv region - 44, the Donetsk region - 46, the Chernihiv region - 34, the Mykolaiiv region - 25, the Zaporizhzhia region - 26, the Zhytomyr region - 15, the Kherson region - 15, the Sumy region - 14. In Kyiv City - 16.

Only over the past 24 hours, two children were killed and three injured in shelling in the Donetsk region.

russian invaders continue to attack civilians daily. The Mariupol City Council said that about 300 people were killed in a russian air bombing at the city's Drama Theatre.

The russian occupiers have struck 55 times in the Kharkiv region over the past 24 hours, and increased activity of Grads and Hurricanes has been recorded, and there are casualties.

On the morning of March 25th in the Osnovianskyi district of Kharkiv, the city polyclinic was fired upon with artillery and “Grads”, where humanitarian aid was being issued. In addition to the dead, there are 7 wounded people.

Since the beginning of the attack, the russian troops have destroyed at least 59 churches in 8 regions of Ukraine. On average, the occupiers destroyed two religious buildings per day. The vast majority of them are Orthodox churches, according to the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine.

Peaceful resistance of Ukrainian citizens continues. In Novotroiitske in the Kherson region, people went on a peaceful rally against the occupation by the russian army. Participants were singing the anthem of Ukraine and also: “Novotroiitske is Ukraine!” and patriotic slogans: “Glory to the nation - death to the enemies”, “Ukraine is above all!”.

The occupiers of the russian federation are scheduled to hold a paid rally in support of "russian authorities" at 8:00 am on March 26th in the central square of Melitopol.

russian occupiers forcibly deport Ukrainian citizens to russia. The Ukrainian authorities have appealed to the International Committee of the Red Cross to obtain from russia the lists of citizens forcibly deported from Mariupol and to provide them with the opportunity to return to Ukraine.

The abduction of civilians and their hostages continue. The russian occupiers abducted two people in the Snovska community of the Chernihiv region: the head of the Snovska territorial community, Olexander Medvediov, and businessman and former deputy of the regional council, Hryhorii Bozhko.

The head of the russian-occupied village of Nyzhni Sirohozy, the Henichesk district, the Kherson region, Dmytro Takadzhy, has disappeared, before he has informed about his resigning from his position as the head of the village.

The russian militaries have abducted Olha Sukhenko, the head of the village of Motyzhyn in the Kyiv region, also they have abducted her husband and son.

The State Bureau of Investigation has started a criminal investigation into the treason of the former mayor of Izium in the Kharkiv region, two current deputies of the Izium City Council and a former police officer. The attackers sided with the enemy and began to help the occupying forces.

3. Under attacks by the russian occupiers, evacuation through the humanitarian corridors continues.

According to Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk, on March 25 it was confirmed to open two humanitarian corridors - from Mariupol and Melitopol to Zaporizhzhia, which evacuated 7,331 people.

2,800 people traveled from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia by their own vehicles in one day. Also 4,000 Mariupol residents were evacuated from the centre of Berdiansk by buses. 80 tons of humanitarian aid were delivered to Berdiansk.

From Melitopol to Zaporizhzhia on Friday 531 people were evacuated. Humanitarian aid was also delivered to the city.

According to official data, 26,477 Mariupol residents were taken out of Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia last week by the humanitarian corridor.

During the week, 699 people were evacuated from Zaporizhzhia region, 9,488 from the Kyiv region, and 972 from the Luhansk region.

In general, 18 humanitarian corridors were launched during the week, which saved 37,606 people from the encircled cities.

4. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine.

According to a poll conducted by the sociological group Rating on March 19th, the unprecedented unity of society against the background of the war had a drastic effect on attitudes toward the language status: today the vast majority (83%) of citizens support Ukrainian as the only official state language in Ukraine.

Sociologists emphasise that this view dominates in all macro-regions, despite the age and language groups. Almost a quarter of Ukrainians were in favour of granting state status to the russian language before the war, and today only 7%.

The vast majority of citizens (67%) believe that there is no “language problem” in Ukraine, and only 12% are convinced that it exists and even poses a threat to the internal security of the state.

The NBU called for continued charitable donations to a special account in support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As of March 25th, UAH 21 million remained on the special account opened by the National Bank for the needs of the army.

The National Bank of Ukraine transferred almost UAH 13 billion to the military, most of it to the Ministry of Defence (UAH 9.4 billion). The National Police also received UAH 1.6 billion, the State Border Guard Service received UAH 980 million, and the National Guard received UAH 950 million.

In total, since the opening of the special account, about UAH 13 billion in equivalent has been transferred to it. In particular, about UAH 3.8 billion in equivalent came from abroad in foreign currency.

Ukrainian authorities have increased pension guarantees for people who are members of voluntary formations of territorial communities. In case of the death of volunteers who belong to the territorial defence groups during their activities in the defence of Ukraine, members of their families are also entitled to increased pension rates, which are provided for family members of deceased servicemen.

5. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary Péter Szijjártó said in response to criticism of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that his country would not change its decision on military supplies to Ukraine and on sanctions against russian energy sources.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine reacted to this unchanging position of Hungary. According to Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko, “supporting Ukraine with one hand and financing russia's aggression machine with the other hand by buying oil and gas is, in fact, giving russia more powers for offensive attacks and assassination.”

Several thousand people rallied in Warsaw on the day of US President Joe Biden's visit. The action was called “Stop promising, start acting!” (“Enough to promise, start doing!”).

Over the past 24 hours, on March 24th, Ukraine received a record amount of humanitarian aid - more than 10 thousand tons.

The total amount of aid imported and cleared by customs officers on March 24th was almost 10.3 thousand tons, including 274 vehicles and 3.5 thousand tons of diesel fuel.

During the entire period of full-scale invasion of the territory of Ukraine, 138 thousand tons of humanitarian aid and more than 3,000 vehicles have been registered.

6. Provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.

Russia’s FSB says it has detained a man who allegedly “was an agent of the Security Service of Ukraine and spied on Ukrainian journalists and political scientists in russia. The detainee's name is ‘Rudas’ and he has dual Ukrainian and Polish citizenship”.

“The man was detained in Moscow while trying to obtain information about the military participating in a special operation in Ukraine,” the russian FSB informs.

On the morning of March 25th, the FSB also reported the detention of a Khabarovsk resident. russia's intelligence service said the man had anonymously asked the Ukrainian intelligence service to provide information “that could be used to the detriment of russia's security, including sabotage.”

russian FSB from time to time reports the detention of mythical “Ukrainian spies”. This practice has been widely used since 2014, when russia launched a hybrid military aggression against Ukraine.

7. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions are being imposed on russia. On March 25th, Switzerland announced new sanctions against russia in accordance with the restrictions applied under the latest packages of EU sanctions.

The UK has imposed sanctions against the russian company Kronstadt, which is the main manufacturer of the russian drone Orion and other UAVs.

23 member states of the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) have decided to suspend contacts with scientists and research centres in russia and Belarus.

The oil embargo has caused panic among russia's leadership. The United States and the European Union have agreed to supply an additional 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas to alleviate the bloc's dependence on russian natural gas.

EU countries have agreed on joint gas purchases to curb high energy prices, and thus create a lever of influence against russia.

russia's leadership is showing signs of panic over how quickly the EU and other Western allies are abandoning imports of russian oil, gas and coal, which are crucial to Moscow's finances. This was stated by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to EU leaders at the summit, writes Politico.

By the end of the year, Canada will increase oil and gas exports by 7% to cover the deficit in the world market, which arose due to restrictions on imports of russian energy resources.

As a result of sanctions against russia, leading international campaigns are leaving the russian market. American biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences has suspended all non-core business operations in russia and new clinical trials in russia.

Passenger rail service between Finland and russia by Allegro high-speed trains will end on March 28th.

German telecommunications company Deutsche Telekom stops software development in russia.

Jewellery company Tiffany will stop buying new diamonds mined in russia amid pressure on the company to remove russian products from supply chains.

Swiss plumbing manufacturer Geberit ceases all business activities in russia.

Dutch manufacturer of paints and coatings Holland Colors announced the cessation of business development in russia and Belarus.

Music streaming service Spotify has announced its withdrawal from russia due to new laws that impose restrictions on the dissemination of information within the country.

China's Sinopec, after hearing a government call for caution over tightening sanctions, has suspended talks on major investments in a russian gas plant and a russian gas company in China.

The possibilities of using russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves are significantly limited. The Central Bank of russia stated that all the gold from gold and foreign exchange reserves is in the vaults of the Bank of russia in the country. They also apologised for blocking their gold and foreign exchange reserves in dollars and euros in the West, saying there was no way to keep them.

Already two clearing systems have blocked the accounts of the National Settlement Depository of the russian federation, which in practice means that russian investors will not be able to receive payments on foreign debt.

The russian stock market continues to stagnate and fall. The russian stock market ended trading on Friday with a rollback, the Moscow Stock Exchange index fell by -3.7 %, the RTS index by 2.7%.

The index of the Moscow Stock Exchange on the first day of trading after a month's break rose by 4.43%. The RTS index ended the day falling by 9.11%.

International rating agency Moody's Investors Service intends to revoke the ratings of all russian organisations and their divisions.

Sanctions continue to negatively affect the russian economy. russian AvtoVAZ has been introducing a four-day working week at production sites in Togliatti and Izhevsk after June 6. This decision was explained, in particular, by “a significant shortage of supplies of electronic components.”

The government of the russian federation intends to refuse funding from the National Welfare Fund (NWF) for the high-speed railway project between Moscow and St. Petersburg. The financial model of the project has lost relevance due to rising imports, declining effective demand, deteriorating forecasts for traffic. Another reason for the possible refusal to finance the project with the NWF was the reduction of technological capabilities due to sanctions on imports.

 

 

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