Lockdown in Dec-Jan to postpone recovery of malls to 2019 indicators for one year and a half – expert
KYIV. Nov 26 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The introduction of severe quarantine restrictions in Ukraine in December-January will postpone the recovery of performance indicators for shopping and entertainment centers to last year's level until the end of 2021 or the middle of 2022.
This was announced by Head of Retail Agency and Consultancy at Cushman & Wakefield Ukraine Kateryna Vesna at a press conference entitled "Real Cost of Lockdowns: Losses to Govt and Shopping Centers" at Interfax-Ukraine on Tuesday.
"If there are subsequent lockdowns, the recovery of work and performance will be postponed. According to some forecasts, a recovery to 2019 performance is predicted at the end of next year, but is increasingly leaning towards the middle of 2022," she said.
At the same time, small retailers with Ukrainian capital and local networks are at the greatest risk, as they can be squeezed out of the market by more stable international operators.
According to Vesna, the level of profitability, turnover, and attendance of the shopping and entertainment centers after the spring lockdown did not reach the level of 2019, excluding facilities in Odesa, where a short-term increase in turnover was recorded during the summer holidays.
At the same time, due to the introduction of weekend quarantine, the decrease in the turnover of the Odesa-based shopping and entertainment center Riviera in November will be 20%, Manager of the shopping and entertainment center Andriy Brynzylo said.
In the opinion of Director of the Darynok market mall Yehor Verloochenko, the alleged redistribution of the flow from weekends to weekdays during the weekend quarantine in November did not take place in full, despite the extension of the operating hours by the shopping and entertainment center. At the same time, a lockdown in December will aggravate the difficult financial situation of the shopping and entertainment center, given the increased costs of maintaining facilities in the winter.
"Speaking about the potential for a second lockdown in December, we perceive it as a potential complete collapse, which, unfortunately, cannot be overcome by the same mechanisms and methods as it was done in the spring. If we understand that the lost turnover in November is 40-60%, then the lost turnover in December is a significant amount of turnover from the total annual volume," Verloochenko said.