Experts: Gas and fleet accords more profitable to Russia than Ukraine

Kyiv, April 22 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Russia, rather than Ukraine, will benefit from agreements on a reduction in the gas price and the extension of the lease on the Russian Black Sea Fleet's base in Ukraine, political analysts have said.

"The win is asymmetrical - Russia has won more," Director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies Volodymyr Fesenko said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine on Wednesday.

He said that these agreements had been stipulated by the fact that the terms of the negotiation process had been unequal for Ukraine, because it wanted a lowering of the gas price.

"The question remains open whether it was necessary to make such significant political concessions," Fesenko said.

He said that Ukraine would benefit economically from the viewpoint of a reduction in the gas price and that this was a tactical win.

"Russia will benefit strategically, both in terms of its geopolitical military interests and in terms of securing Ukraine in the sphere of its geopolitical interests for another three decades. At the same time, it will also benefit economically, as there will be no need to spend money on a new base for the Black Sea Fleet," Fesenko said.

"And from this point of view, of course, Russia's win is more significant," he said.

According to him, Russia was much better prepared for the very tactics of the negotiation process, because such a scheme of a compromise on the gas issue was not discussed in Ukraine.

"Apparently, the Russians proposed a draft agreement at the last moment. By the way, we still don't know whether a formal agreement was signed or not, or if the issue concerns fundamental agreements. If an agreement is signed, then the fundamental point is whether the Ukrainian side participated in the drafting of the agreement, or this draft was prepared by Russia, while the Ukrainian side only signed it," Fesenko said.

He recalled that the previous agreement on the status and terms of the Black Sea Fleet's stationing in Ukraine had been prepared by both sides, quite seriously and thoroughly.

Fesenko said that Ukraine's leadership "might have not fully assessed the domestic political consequences of this agreement. In particular, these agreements will result in the escalation of [confrontation] between the government and the opposition, which may block the ratification of the agreement in parliament.

"And, of course, it will be another issue splitting Ukrainian society," Fesenko said.

"I don't think that most Ukrainians will be against this agreement. Still, a significant number of our citizens are sympathetic to Russia, and they are quite neutral to the subject of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's presence on Ukrainian territory," he said.

Director of Ukraine's Institute of Global Strategies Vadym Karasiov also said the agreements were unequal for both sides.

"The new Ukrainian government, experiencing a tight fiscal crisis and the situation of an industrial downturn, decided to reduce at any cost the price of Russian gas supplies to Ukrainian industrial enterprises in order to start the engine of economic growth. And this 'any price' appeared to be too high from the strategic and geopolitical points of view. At least, doubtful enough," he said.

In his opinion, "it would have been possible to reduce the gas price through smaller concessions that concern the economic sphere, rather than geopolitical issues linked to the presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine after 2017."

He recalled that in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine, the deployment of foreign military bases in Ukraine was banned and that an additional protocol to the grand Russian-Ukrainian treaty of 1997 suggested that the Russian Black Sea Fleet could stay on Ukrainian territory only until 2017.

"The new decision by the new Ukrainian authorities to extend the presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine for another 25 years, or possibly more, poses not only geopolitical, but also domestic political risks," Karasiov said.

He said that the Verkhovna Rada would ratify these agreements, "but at the expense of increasing instability both in the Ukrainian ruling class and in society, since the question of the Black Sea Fleet's presence after 2017 may split the Ukrainian elite and society."

"After receiving a reduction in the gas price, we may raise the profitability of some enterprises and large businesses closely connected with the current authorities, but at the same time, we'll strengthen instability in the country," he said.

Director of the Kyiv-based Gorshenin Institute of Management Issues Kost Bondarenko said that according to a survey conducted by the institute, over 65% of Ukrainians did not want the lease on a Russian naval base in Ukraine to be extended after 2017.

In his opinion, an agreement on a reduction in the price of gas is more important for the Ukrainian population than the extension of the lease on the Russian Black Sea Fleet's base in Crimea.

"Naturally, most people want concrete decisions in the social and economic sphere, and by and large, they are less concerned about political decisions," he said.

The analyst also said that these agreements would not entail a significant increase in the split of Ukraine.

"I don't think that if it splits, this split will be catastrophic," he said.