Razumkov Centre: unstable situation to remain in Ukraine without Russian military intervention

Kyiv, April 30 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Ukraine's Oleksandr Razumkov Centre for Economical and Political Studies predict that the unstable situation in Ukraine will continue this year, but it won't come to a direct military intervention by Russia.

"Our forecasts for 2014 are based on two possible scenarios. The first one is direct invasion by the Russian Federation, and under such conditions it is simply impossible to make any predications. The second scenario, which we consider more likely, is the preservation of the current situation, which is very unstable. It means preservation of Crimea's annexation status, Russia provoking separatists but without elements of armed incursion on mainland Ukraine," Deputy Director General, Director of the Politics and Law Department at the Razumkov Center Yuriy Yakymenko said at the press conference in Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Tuesday during the presentation of the publication "Ukraine-2014: New Prospects and New Threats (Analytical Estimation)."

In turn, Co-Director of Foreign Policy and International Security Programs at the Centre Oleksiy Melnyk drew attention to inability of current Ukrainian government, for a number of reasons, to come up with an urgent and efficient decision to ensure the stability and security of the population and the whole state.

"The threat of the activation of a pro-Russian 'fifth column' remains, [as well as] Russian agents that are operating on Ukraine's soil practically without interference, dedicated and motivated separatists and hired, so-called, 'titushki' [thugs]," he noted.

According to Melnyk, the prospects of conducting full-scale effective reforms of security sector in Ukraine remain illusive because of insufficient funds; but the main issue remains that the new government lacks a profound strategy or concept to conduct defense sector reforms in Ukraine.

"Preliminary analyses of the election programs of the top-rated presidential candidates indicate either an insufficient level of professionalism of those who have prepared them, or a lack of attention particularly to these issues regardless of the timeliness of national security issues," he added.