Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of the past day of April 29th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine heroically restrain the enemy's attacks in the decisive battle for the Donbas.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, russians continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in order to establish full control over the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and maintain the land corridor with the temporarily occupied Crimea.

In the Donetsk and Tavriia directions, enemy units are trying to launch an offensive attack in the Lymanskyi, Severodonetskyi, and Popasnyanskyi directions.

The enemy continues to establish full control over the settlements of Rubizhne and Popasna and prepares to advance on the Severodonetsk direction.

In the Mariupol direction, the enemy continued to launch air strikes on Mariupol. The enemies focused their main efforts on blocking the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the Azovstal plant, and transferred some units from Mariupol to the Kurakhiv direction.

In the Slobozhanskyi direction, the enemy group of the 6th General Army, the coastal troops of the Baltic and Northern Fleets is focusing on maintaining positions in the area north and southeast of Kharkiv, trying to deploy additional artillery units.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the village of Ruska Lozova in the Kharkiv region from the russian occupiers. This is a strategically important settlement located on the Kharkiv-Belgorod highway. It is from this suburban area that the enemy fired at the civilian infrastructure and housing estates of Kharkiv.

In the Izium direction, the enemy is operating with units of the 1st Panzer Army, the 20th Military Army of the Western Military District, the 35th Military Army, the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District and the Airborne Troops. The enemy's main efforts are focused on conducting reconnaissance and inflicting fire damage on units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In the Pivdennyi Buh and Bessarabian directions, the enemy is trying to fight with its available forces in order to improve its tactical position. It continues to regroup, increasing systems of fire damage and improving the engineering equipment of its positions.

The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to April 28 were: combatants -  approximately 23,000 (+200) people were eliminated, tanks - 986 (+16) units, armoured combat vehicles - 2418 (+29) units, artillery systems - 435 +4) units, MLRS - 151 (+0) units, air defence means - 73 (+1) units, aircraft - 189 (+2) units, helicopters - 155 (+0) units, automotive equipment - 1695 (+7) units, ships / boats - 8 (+0) units, fuel tanks - 76 (+0), UAVs of operational and tactical level - 229 (+14), special equipment - 31 (+0), launchers TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) - 4 (+0).

The greatest losses of the enemy of the past day were observed in the Izium direction.

russia  has fired 1,300 missiles at Ukraine during the war, costing the aggressor at least $7.5 billion.

2. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, in the captured village of Kyselivka in the Kherson region, a shootout took place between russian soldiers of Buryat and Chechen origin.

More than 50 participants from each side took part in the night incident. The exact number of wounded and dead is currently unknown. The causes of the interethnic conflict are the reluctance of the Buryats to conduct offensive hostilities and the "inequality" of their conditions compared to the Chechens.

3. The shelling of Kyiv during the visit of the UN Secretary General António Guterres.

Because of a russian missile strike on the evening of April 28th in a residential building in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv, 10 people were injured. The body of the dead person, Radio Svoboda journalist Vira Hyrych, was found under the rubble of the house.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres is shocked that russia has launched a missile strike on Kyiv while in the Ukrainian capital.

European Minister of Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said he was shocked and astonished by the evening shelling of Kyiv by russian troops, when UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov were visiting the capital of Ukraine.

4. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing mass genocide of Ukrainians.

International and national investigation into the mass genocide of the russian occupiers against Ukrainians. The UK will send a team of war crimes experts to Ukraine to help with evidence documentation and investigations.

 

russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. The officially confirmed number of Ukrainian children killed in the war has risen to 219, and the number of wounded reached 398 people as a result of documenting crimes committed by the russian army.

The most affected children were in the Donetsk region - 139, the Kyiv region - 115, the Kharkiv region - 95, the Chernihiv region - 68, the Kherson region - 44, the Mykolaiiv region - 43, the Luhansk region - 37, the Zaporizhzhia region - 27, the Sumy region - 17, Kyiv City - 16, the Zhytomyr region - 15.

In Krasne, in the Chernihiv district,the  Chernihiv region, in the first week of March on the highway near the village, a car exploded on a mine, children aged 2 and 14 were killed.

A 10-year-old boy was injured during an artillery shelling by the occupiers of the Romanivskyi Bridge in Irpin.

On April 28th, as a result of shelling by enemy troops, a 10-year-old girl was injured in the village Tsyrkuny of the Kharkiv district of the Kharkiv region.

On April 28th, four adults and one child were injured in the shelling of Zaporizhzhia.

russian occupiers kill and abduct civilians, hold them hostage and torture them. As of April 27th, 243 crimes against journalists and media were registered in the 16 regions of Ukraine. Seven journalists were killed in the line of duty during the war, 15 were missing, 14 died as participants in hostilities or as a result of russian shelling (not in the course of their professional duties), 9 were wounded as a result of shelling by the russian occupiers, 8 journalists were captured and abducted.

Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov has said that the abduction of people by russian occupiers at checkpoints and just on the streets has become more frequent, so it is currently dangerous to move around the city and district.

Dominique Byrne, co-founder of a network of charities working in Ukraine, was quoted by the BBC  saying that two members of the UK humanitarian organisation had been taken into custody by the russian military in the Zaporizhzhia region. According to Byrne, yesterday two British people tried to help a mother with two children to leave the russian-occupied settlement. The occupants stopped the UK citizens at the checkpoint; their future is unknown.

russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. In the evening of April 28th, the russian army launched missile strikes on Kyiv and the Kyiv region, as well as the Khmelnytskyi region, on the morning of April 29th, it shelled villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk and Kherson regions continue to sustain losses due to constant shelling.

The Kharkiv region: on the night of April 29th, artillery and MLRS shelling of residential areas of Kharkiv continued. During the day, the occupiers continuously fired on the Kharkiv district, the settlements of Pokotylivka, Khroly, and Kotriari. According to preliminary information, no one was injured.

The Luhansk region: during the entire day, there was shelling of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Hirske, Pryvillia. In each of these cities there is damage to housing and farm buildings. No civilians were killed.

Donetsk: shelling at the entire frontline: "Hrady", artillery, mortars, aircraft, and missiles. On Thursday evening, there was a missile strike on the outskirts of Kramatorsk.

Mariupol - at least one Ukrainian defender was killed under the rubble of a field hospital at the Azovstal plant, and nearly a hundred other wounded were injured. An operation to withdraw civilians from the Azovstal plant is scheduled for Friday, April 29th.

The Kherson region: in the area of explosions and shelling, the enemy is trying to take control of settlements, resorting to threats and abductions.

In the Dnepropetrovsk region, the night was quiet, but in the morning, russians from "Hrads" fired at two villages on the border with the Kherson region. The civilians were not affected.

The Kyiv region: in the evening of April 28th, a missile strike was launched on the infrastructure of the Fastiv community, two people were injured. 

In Kyiv, a house was damaged due to the rocket attack on the city center, and 10 people were injured.

The Khmelnytsky region: in the evening there was a rocket attack on an infrastructure facility in one of the territorial communities of the Shepetivka district in the Khmelnytsky region.

5. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.

The Office of President of Ukraine has informed that "an operation is planned today to remove civilians from the plant," but the details were not specified.

According to Ukrayinska Pravda, the evacuation of civilians from Azovstal was scheduled for Thursday, April 28th, but the process was halted by a night of airstrikes on the hospital at Azovstal .

According to the Ukrayinska Pravda interlocutors from the authorities, after the evacuation of civilians, Ukraine will try to evacuate the most seriously wounded people from the plant.

6. Adoption of the law on land lease - a radical change in the philosophy of military assistance to Ukraine.

The House of Representatives approved a bill to restore the program during the World War II. The new bill will allow more efficient sending of weapons, ammunition and equipment to Ukraine.

The document, known as the Law on Land Lease for the Defense of Ukraine's Democracy of 2022, will speed up the transfer of important military equipment and other critical supplies to Ukraine by reducing bureaucratic red tape. Prior to that, on April 6, the bill was unanimously approved by the US Senate. The law must now be sent to President Biden for signature.

According to Information Defence analysts, the adoption of this bill means that cooperation between Ukraine and the United States has reached a qualitatively new level, and the philosophy of providing American assistance has changed radically.

Now, before the Lend-Lease Act comes into force, the President of the United States must ask Congress each time to provide military assistance to Ukraine for a certain amount, such as $800 million. After receiving the decision, the detail of supplies first is confirmed and only then, there is a supply of weapons. This is a rather long bureaucratic process, and if the set limit is exhausted, it is necessary to apply to Congress again.

With the adoption of the law on land leases, military assistance is no longer limited to certain financial frameworks.

Payment for military equipment and weapons is made after the war. Only equipment and ammunition that was not destroyed during the war are payable. Furthermore, there is no need to pay if Ukraine decides to return the surviving military equipment and weapons back to the United States.

Also, with the adoption of the law, the range of weapon supplies is significantly expanded. Virtually all types of military equipment and weapons can be supplied to Ukraine, except, of course, nuclear weapons, which are produced in the United States or can be purchased on the international arms market. Thus, Ukraine can count on modern Patriot air defence systems, F -16 and F -18 and even F -35 aircraft, volley fire systems, Abrams tanks and other state-of-the-art weapons and equipment.

The adoption of the law on land lease will significantly simplify the procedure for military supplies to Ukraine, remove unnecessary bureaucratic restrictions, create more favourable financial conditions for military assistance to Ukraine and the supply of state-of-the-art weapons.

7. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to the russian aggression.

The government and society demonstrate unity, patriotism and faith in victory. Vinnytsia decided to transfer 420 tons of artesian water to Mykolaiiv which has suffered without a water supply for more than 2 weeks.

This year, the authorities plan to provide more than 53,000 apartments for temporary residence of displaced people.

Signs of recovery of the Ukrainian economy. Almost every second Ukrainian business has fully or partially returned to work after the forced suspension on February 24. This is stated in the results of the Opendatabot poll.

8. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has assured that Ukraine will demand maximum-security guarantees from its partners and allies in order to prevent a repeat of the russian invasion in the future.

On Friday morning, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba called on the world states to decide what security guarantees they are ready to provide to Ukraine.

UN Secretary-General Guterres said the UN Security Council had not done what it was supposed to do in the context of russia's attack on Ukraine.

The OSCE will soon close down the work of the Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. This decision was the result of a lack of consensus in the Permanent Council of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on 31 March 2022 to extend the mission's mandate.

Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to the head of the President's Office, believes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and russian president putin will meet later, but now their negotiations are "out of time."

The UK Ambassador to Ukraine Melinda Simmons announced her return to Kyiv. The Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Embassy of the Netherlands in Kyiv are resuming their work on April 29th.

Military assistance to Ukraine. The administration of US President Joe Biden says that the request for $33 billion in aid for Ukraine is urgent, because of the $3.5 billion allocated for military security, about $250 million remains.

Poland has supplied Ukraine with more than 200 T-72 tanks and several dozen infantry fighting vehicles.

The South Air Command has received the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system from partner countries (Slovakia) - SAM is already performing combat missions in the southern region.

Financial assistance to Ukraine. Ukraine will receive an additional grant of €495 million from Norway, Austria and the United States.

The grant will be used to provide priority social and humanitarian expenditures, health care expenditures, and support for internally displaced persons.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The United Nations plans to provide cash payments to a significant number of Ukrainians under conditions that are unusual for the organisation. UN Secretary General Guterres stated this at a press conference in Kyiv.

He said that the UN agencies were making payments to the victims of the russian attack: "We are ready to provide cash payments - 1.3 million by the end of May, 2 million by August, but it will be in coordination with the Ukrainian government."

From June, Ukrainians seeking protection from the war in Germany will be provided with a better level of social protection and job search support. Starting from June 1, Ukrainians who have received a residence permit will receive at least 449 euros in social assistance.

Billionaire Elon Musk, in addition to Starlink satellite Internet stations, handed over solar panels and energy saving systems to Ukraine from Tesla Powerwall.

9. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

According to the Ministry of Finance, a week before the end of the grace period, russia paid coupons on Eurobonds maturing in 2022 and 2042 in dollars, as required by the contracts.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. The Norwegian government has decided to join the EU sanctions and close the land border for trucks from russia, and close the ports for russian ships.

President Joe Biden said the United States would not allow russia to avoid the consequences of aggression using oil and gas: “Yesterday, russia threatened our two allies to cut off energy supplies. I will say clearly: we will not allow russia to avoid sanctions through intimidation or blackmail. And we will not allow it to use its oil to avoid the consequences of aggression.”

Eni intends to comply with the existing contractual terms for the purchase of russian natural gas and therefore has not opened a ruble account.

The leading Danish energy company Ørsted has refused to pay for the supply of russian gas in rubles.

The Binance Exchange blocked the accounts of Polina Kovaleva, the stepdaughter of russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov; Elizaveta Peskova, the daughter of Dmitry Peskov who is a press secretary of the russian president; and the son of billionaire Konstantin Malofeev, who is under OFAC sanctions.

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The Open Policy Foundation (hereinafter - the Foundation, http://openpolicy.org.ua) is a well-known public organisation that conducts analytical research and information campaigns, in particular on Ukrainian and foreign policy, protection of the rights of young people from the temporarily occupied territories to receive higher education in Ukraine.

With the beginning of the russian aggression, the Foundation's experts, together with other leading Ukrainian analysts, have joined a team to implement the Information Defence of Ukraine project. Experts of the project prepare daily reviews of the military-political situation in Ukraine in Ukrainian, English, and Russian, the first review was released on February 26th, moderate the telegram channel “Information Defence of Ukraine”, https://t.me/info_defense_ua.

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