Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of April 19th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for the decisive battle for the Donbas area.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the Donetsk direction, near Mar’inka, because of counterattacks by Ukrainian troops, the enemy have sustained losses and retreated. Units of the Defence Forces regained control of the settlement.

In the Slobozhanskyi direction, the enemy partially blocked Kharkiv. Enemy units attempted an attack and stormed south of the city of Izium. They were unsuccessful, sustained losses and were forced to retreat to their former positions.

Fighting continues on the outskirts of Oleksandrivka on the administrative border of the Mykolaiiv and Kherson regions. The occupiers are trying to oust Ukrainian defenders from the administrative borders of the Kherson region, but have been unsuccessful.

russian enemy ships in the Black Sea operational zone have moved almost 200 km off the Ukrainian coast.

russian invaders are transferring additional anti-aircraft missile divisions of the Tor type systems, and are also deploying S-400 and S-300 anti-aircraft missile divisions in the Belgorod region.

The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24th to April 19th were approximately: combatants – approximately 20,800 people were killed, tanks - 802 units, armoured combat vehicles - 2,063 units, artillery systems - 386 units, MLRS - 132 units, air defence - 67 units, aircraft - 169 units, helicopters - 150 units, motor vehicles - 1495 units, ships / boats - 8 units, fuel tanks - 76, UAVs operational and tactical level - 158, special equipment - 27, TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) launchers - 4.

The combatants of two battalion and tactical groups were destroyed in the 200th separate motorised infantry brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Coastal Troops of the Northern Fleet of the russian federation.

With the help of the Ukrainian defenders, three companies of the 1st Parachute Regiment and the Company of the 137th Parachute Regiment, which are part of the 106th Parachute Division of the Armed Forces of the russian federation, were destroyed.

2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence think tanks.

According to the Main Department, the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine warns that the russian occupation administration has prepared to hold "pseudo-referendums" in the occupied areas of the Kherson and Mykolayiv regions to declare the so-called "People's Republics" and join russia.

Experts from the American Institute for War Studies "are convinced that the offensive operation of the russian occupiers in the Donbas will not lead to a serious strategic victory for russia.

Military experts believe that the russians have already begun a planned battle for the Donbas, in particular during the attacks on Popasna, Rubizhne, and Mar’inka. It is unlikely that russia's attacks in the east will be much more successful than previous russian attacks, russian forces have been unable to exhaust Ukrainian defenders or make little progress.

Experts of the Institute suggest that the russians may resort to tactics of depletion of Ukrainian forces due to their numerical superiority and accumulated firepower. Nevertheless, the lack of full-fledged russian combat units, unresolved logistics problems, and the low morale of russian soldiers will hamper successful operations on the battlefield.

The report of the analytical centre also states that the attack of Ukrainian defenders on russian units near Chuguev forced the russian occupiers to withdraw part of the forces near Izium to repel the attacks by Ukrainian defenders. However, according to the report's authors, if the Ukrainians fail to reach the Kupiansk and Velykyi Burluk lines, the russians will maintain their supply lines with russian bases in Valuyki and Belgorod.

3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide of Ukrainians.

russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. More than 572 children were injured in Ukraine as a result of a full-scale armed aggression by the russian federation. Over the last 24 hours, the official number of killed children has not changed - 205. The number of injured has increased - 367.

Most children were affected in the Donetsk (118), Kyiv (108), Kharkiv (91), Chernihiv (54), Kherson (43), Mykolaiiv (40), Luhansk (36), Zaporizhzhia (25), Sumy (16), Zhytomyr (15) regions and Kyiv City (16).

In particular, on April 18th as a result of artillery shelling by the occupiers of the village a 16-year-old girl was injured in Shandryholove in the Donetsk region. Also on April 18th, due to the shelling of the village Preobrazhenka in the Zaporizhzhia region a 14-year-old girl was injured.

Humanitarian catastrophe in Mariupol. The commander of the Azov Regiment, Lieutenant Colonel Denys Prokopenko, asks world leaders to organise an evacuation from Mariupol for civilians and wounded and dead soldiers who deserve to be buried with honours.

Civilians, including women and children, are hiding on the territory of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol. In Mariupol, blocked by the russian army, the occupying forces not only dropped bombs on Azovstal, but also chaotically fired on the residential sector, where civilians had been released only the day before.

Deputy Commander of the Azov Regiment Sviatoslav “Kalyna” Palamar said that the Azovstal plant in Mariupol had been bombed and destroyed, and Ukrainian fighters were pulling people out of the rubble.

russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. On the night of April 19th, shelling of Kharkiv continued, fighting broke out in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Mykolaiiv was shelled from MLRS, the Dnipropetrovsk region was shelled from “Hrads”, and artillery was operating throughout the Kherson region.

The Kharkiv region: all night alarms and shelling by the occupiers of residential areas. During a day, 15 civilians were wounded, 5 civilians were killed.

At least three more people were killed and 16 were injured in the russian shelling of Kharkiv on the afternoon of April 19th.

The Donetsk region: shelling from artillery and "Hrads" on Avdijivka, Mar’inka , Toretsk, New York, Vuhledar. During a day, 4 civilians were dead, 5 were wounded.

As a result of rocket attacks on Kramatorsk on Tuesday afternoon, April 19th, one person was killed and three were injured.

The Mykolaiiv area: at night shelling of Mykolaiiv by systems of volley fire. The result was a fire in a residential building. There were also shellings of villages Lymany, Halytsynovo, Balobanivka.

International and national investigation of the war crimes of the russian occupiers The Kyiv region Police Chief Andrii Nebytov told reporters on April 19th that more than 1,000 civilians had been killed due to the russian aggression in the Kyiv region, the vast majority of whom had been killed, and bodies were still being found. According to him, more than 420 bodies have already been found in Bucha.

In general, more than 400 law enforcement officers are currently working in the region, and they have already interviewed more than 27,000 people about crimes committed by the russians.

Investigators from the State Bureau of Investigation documented the crimes of the russian occupiers in Irpin, the Kyiv region. They inspected about 700 hectares of the city in the Kyiv region, which is more than 10,000 houses and buildings, among other things, 13 burials were found.

4. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.

Ukrainian authorities have failed to agree on humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians from dangerous areas on April 19th. The russians refuse to provide a corridor for civilians to leave Mariupol in the direction of Berdiansk. Difficult negotiations on opening humanitarian corridors in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions continue.

According to the Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk , Ukrainian authorities held the fifth exchange of prisoners with the russian occupiers, 76 Ukrainians retuned home.

Among those who managed to be exchanged were 60 servicemen, including 10 officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Ukrainian authorities also confirmed to return 16 civilians taken hostage by the russian occupiers.

5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, losses due to the russian aggression.

Political situation in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy introduced a bill to the Verkhovna Rada "On Extending the Martial Law in Ukraine." The President proposes to extend tmartial law from 5:30 am on April 25th, 2022 for a period of 30 days, i.e. until May 25th.

Today, diplomats from 16 diplomatic missions are working in Kyiv: the EU, France, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Turkey, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, the Vatican, Moldova, Georgia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

The National Bank of Ukraine transferred UAH 15.2 billion to the military, leaving only UAH 6 million on the special account.

Ukraine's economy is suffering from war; the largest Ukrainian companies are sustaining losses due to the russian aggression. The International Monetary Fund predicts a 35% drop in Ukraine's economy this year, and the fund cannot make any other forecasts due to the extreme instability of events.

At the same time, russia's GDP will fall by only 8.5% in 2022, and will further decline by 2.3% in 2023. Inflation in the aggressor country is projected at 21.3% and 14.3%, respectively. Unemployment in russia will rise to 9.3% this year against 4.8% in 2021. The International Monetary Fund also predicts a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and rising inflation due to russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Global growth is projected to slow from approximately 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023. This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower, respectively, than forecast in January.

During russia's war in Ukraine, 30% of infrastructure worth $100 billion was destroyed or damaged. More than 300 bridges on national roads have been destroyed or damaged, more than 8,000 km of roads need to be repaired or rebuilt, and dozens of railway bridges have been blown up.

It will take about $1 billion to restore the destroyed or damaged Irpin housing stock, as well as the city's infrastructure.

The Ukrainian economy, despite the negative effects of hostilities, is demonstrating signs of recovery. After 50 days of war, 41% of companies function, 50% of companies continue to operate from time to time.

This is stated in the results of the survey “Organising business during the war in Ukraine. Week 8”, according to the American Chamber of Commerce.

29% of member companies relocated within Ukraine, and 19% relocated outside Ukraine. 15% had to close offices in some regions, 2% - to close completely.

Ukraine is rebuilding infrastructure in the occupied territories. Nova Poshta resumed courier delivery and collection of parcels in Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel and Makariv.

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine and security guarantees. Representatives of the US State Department are considering all the tools available to them to bring russia to justice for the war in Ukraine, including the possibility of recognising it as a sponsor of terrorism.

The United States has warned China of serious consequences if it provides weapons to russia or helps circumvent sanctions.

Military assistance to Ukraine. The Japanese Ministry of Defence plans to hand over nuclear, biological and chemical protection (NBC) suits, as well as drones to Ukraine as part of aid to counter russian armed aggression.

The UK government plans to hand over Stormer armoured missile launchers to Ukraine to launch Starstreak missiles. The Sun reported this.

Stormer HVM has an eight-charge launcher on the roof and has space inside to accommodate eight more missiles. These missiles are capable of shooting down enemy planes and helicopters flying at low altitudes.

The Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte has announced his decision to supply Ukraine with heavy weapons, including armoured vehicles.

Financial assistance to Ukraine. The European Union intends to cover most of the costs of Ukraine's post-war reconstruction. A solidarity trust fund will be set up for this purpose. This was reported by Bloomberg.

The fund will be modelled on the European Covid Fund and will finance investments and reforms in agreement with the Ukrainian government.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki has arrived in Lviv on April 19th in connection with the opening of the first modular houses for IDPs, built with the support of Poland.

7. Statements, provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the russian federation Sergei Lavrov assures that russia is not considering the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

In addition, Lavrov has said that russia is starting the next phase of the "special operation" in Ukraine, i.e. a new stage of the war. "This operation will continue, the next phase of this operation is now beginning. I am confident that this will be a very important moment of the entire special operation. The operation is aimed at the complete liberation of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics,” he said.

The head of the Belgorod region of russia, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said that the village of Golovchine was shelled "by Ukraine." Gladkov said there was a destruction. Initially, there were no reports of casualties, but the governor said a woman was injured and that she was receiving a medical treatment.

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

The political situation in russia, public sentiment. According to a poll conducted by the Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion, 45% of russian citizens consider the trial of "Ukrainian Nazis" to be the goal of the russian war in Ukraine. The majority of russians believe that there are organisations in Ukraine that profess the ideology of Nazism (88%).

76% of respondents believe that Ukrainian Nazi organisations pose a threat to russia and russian citizens, 14% take the opposite position, 6% could not answer, 4% did not answer this question.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. Canada has announced new sanctions against 14 russian individuals, including businessmen and members of their families, including putin’s daughters Maria Vorontsova and Katerina Tihonova and Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina.

Emmanuel Macron says he supports a full oil and gas embargo on russia. The President of France made this statement in an interview with France 5.

The President of France also denies the information that it was on his initiative that the issue of the embargo on russian oil was postponed until the end of the presidential election in France. He argues that Europeans should stop buying oil and gas from russia to "weaken Moscow's ability" to continue the war.

New Zealand has announced new sanctions against russia's largest banks and financial institutions as part of a "government response to russia's invasion of Ukraine." According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of New Zealand Nanaia Mahuta the country is imposing sanctions on 18 financial institutions, including russia's Central bank, the sovereign wealth fund and the country's largest financial institutions.

The Greek Coast Guard blocked a russian oil tanker on its way to its destination after it was intercepted off the coast of Euboea on Tuesday.

Coast Guard officials said the arrest warrant was issued by the anti-money laundering body in accordance with instructions on sanctions imposed on russia by the European Union over its invasion of Ukraine.

The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. The russian government will temporarily allow the production of cars of all environmental classes, including Euro-0. According to the current technical regulations, cars must comply with Euro-5 and above.

Europe, the United States and Japan have abolished Euro-0 cars since 1992, and Euro-1 since 1995. russia introduced the Euro-2 standard in 2002.

Auto concern Stellantis (brands Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroën, Dodge, DS, Fiat, Jeep, Lancia, Maserati, Opel, Peugeot, Ram Trucks, Vauxhall and others) stopped its only russian plant "PSMA Rus" in Kaluga.

The ban on flights to the Crimea and fears of tourists due to the "terrorist threat" led to a drop in demand among russians by 30-45% in May.

McKinsey, a consulting company, stopped serving customers in russia on April 15th.

The German manufacturer of household chemicals and cosmetics Henkel has decided to cease its activities in russia due to the war in Ukraine.