Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of April 11th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions and continue counterattacks.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy tried to attack Severodonetsk in the Donetsk and Tavriia directions, but was unsuccessful. During the shelling of Popasna, the enemy used the “Tochka-U” (“Scarab B”) tactical missile system.

In Mariupol, the enemy is carrying out assault operations in some areas of the city.

In the Slobozhanskyi direction, the russians continue to partially encircle and surround Kharkiv, firing from multiple rocket launchers, artillery and mortars.

In the area of the city of Izium, the occupiers are trying to keep the borders that were captured earlier.

In the Pivdennyi Buh direction, the occupiers are trying to improve their tactical situation and gain a foothold on the administrative borders of the Kherson region.

The Defence Ministry believes that the possibility of the resumption of attacks by russian troops on Kyiv will depend on the outcome of the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 11.04 were approximately: combatants - about 19,500 people, tanks - 725 units, armoured combat vehicles - 1923 units, artillery systems - 347 units, MLRS - 111 units, air defence - 55 units, aircraft - 154 units, helicopters - 137 units, vehicles - 1387 units, ships / boats - 7 units, fuel tanks - 76, UAVs operational and tactical level - 119, special equipment - 25, launchers TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) launchers - 4.

During the day, Ukrainian fighters have destroyed about 200 russian invaders, two enemy planes, three russian tanks, 5 artillery systems, three volley fire missile systems, 12 armoured combat vehicles, 7 aggressor’s drones, and 3 military vehicles.

The situation in Mariupol. Eduard Basurin, a russian militant from occupied Donetsk, said that Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol at the Azovstal plant should be blocked and that chemical weapons could be used against them.

On April 10th, the defenders of Mariupol from the "Azov" unit said that no one had contacted them and did not pick up the phone for more than two weeks.

The 36th Separate Marine Brigade named after counter-admiral Mykhailo Bilinskyi of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that the unit in Mariupol was running out of ammunition, the situation was very difficult, April 11th could be the last battle, and that there was no support or contact with the authorities.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhnyi assured that the authorities are doing everything possible and impossible for the defence of Mariupol: “the connection with the units of the defence forces that heroically hold the city is stable and maintained. I emphasise that conducting defence operations is not a topic for public discussion. We are doing what is possible and impossible for the Victory and saving the lives of the combatants and civilians in all directions.”

In another message on April 11th, the leadership of the Azov unit, which is taking part in the battles for Mariupol, assured that they support the actions of the Ukrainian military-political leadership.

2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence.

As reported New York The Times, US intelligence is observing a gathering of russian troops in and around Izium for a possible attack to the south and southeast.

The officials of the US Department of Defense suggest that russian occupation forces may launch an attack from Izium to the Dnipro in an attempt to seize the regional centre.

According to UK intelligence in its review, there is a high probability that russian troops will use phosphorus munitions in Mariupol.

Western intelligence sources say that almost a third of russia's forces have lost their combat effectiveness since invading Ukraine in February.

The russian occupiers are using underage Ukrainian children to reconnoiter our military positions, the Security Service reports .

4. The russian occupiers continue to violate international humanitarian law.

Mass genocide of Ukrainians committed by the russian occupiers. The European Union will support Ukraine in documenting russia's war crimes in cooperation with the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court and the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine.

On April 11th, a detachment of technical and scientific gendarmes from France arrived in Ukraine to investigate the war crimes of the russian occupiers in the Kyiv region.

The russian aggressors continue to kill Ukrainian children. As of April 11th, according to official data from juvenile prosecutors, more than 525 children were injured in Ukraine as a result of the russian federation's armed invasion of our country. At the same time, 183 children died and more than 342 were injured.

Most children were affected in the Donetsk (110), Kyiv (98), Kharkiv (76), Chernihiv (54), Mykolaiiv (40), Luhansk (35), Zaporizhzhia (22), Kherson (29), Sumy (16), Zhytomyr (15) regions,  and in Kyiv City (16).

During the recording of criminal offences committed in Vorzel in the Kyiv region, the body of a 15-year-old boy with gunshot wounds was found. A family with a 5-year-old child died in the shelling in Borodianka, the Kyiv region. Their bodies have only just been discovered.

On April 9th, a 14-year-old girl received a gunshot wound to the neck and spinal cord injuries as a result of artillery shelling by the russian military in the Stanislav village, Bilozerskyi district, in the Kherson region. On April 10th, a 16-year-old boy was injured in a shelling of a village in the Pokrovskyi district of the Donetsk region.

The russian bombing and shelling damaged 938 educational institutions, 87 of which were completely destroyed.

The russian occupiers have already damaged or completely destroyed at least 166 cultural monuments since their invasion of Ukraine.

The russian invaders fire on civilians every day. In the Donetsk region, on April 10th, as a result of russian shelling two more people were killed, four were wounded.

The chairman of the Dnipropetrovsk regional council, Mykola Lukashuk, said that the rocket shelling by the russian occupiers and the destruction of April 10th had been the most difficult day for the region since the start of a full-scale invasion by russian troops.

Last night, the russian occupiers carried out about 66 strikes on Kharkiv and settlements in the region, killing 11 people and injuring 14.

The enemy made 7 missile strikes across the Mykolaiiv area. Fortunately, no one was injured.

In Borodianka, in the Kyiv region, on April 11th, the bodies of 7 people were recovered from the rubble, and a total of 19 victims were removed from the rubble.

Occupying troops are trying to carry out measures of supplying information and imposing psychological influence on the people of Kherson and the region. To this end, they distribute information bulletins, which provide distorted information about the course of hostilities, the justification of the war, impose on the citizens of Ukraine registration of social benefits, including pensions in accordance with the norms and rules of russia.

5. The evacuation of civilians under attacks from the russian aggressors continues.

The work of 9 humanitarian corridors in the Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions was planned for April 11th:

•         from Mariupol, Berdiansk, Tokmak, Enerhodar to Zaporizhzhia;

•         from Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Popasna, Rubizhne, the village of Hirske to Bakhmut.

Ukrzaliznytsia has scheduled 11 additional evacuation flights for April 11th, 6 of which are for residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

6. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, losses due to russian aggression.

Society demonstrates solidarity, patriotism, and faith in victory. The National Bank of Ukraine transferred almost UAH 14.8 billion to the needs of the military, UAH 16 million remained on the special account.

3.5 million students from Ukrainian schools have returned to school. As of April 7th, 2022, distant (online) forms of learning have been introduced in almost 12,000 schools in Ukraine, said the Minister of Education and Science of Ukraine Serhii Shkarlet.

Ukraine's economy is suffering from war, the largest Ukrainian companies are sustaining losses due to the russian aggression. During the week, the direct losses of Ukraine's economy due to the war started by russia increased by 12.2 billion dollars and on April 11th crossed 80.4 billion dollars, or 2.4 trillion hryvnas.

The total losses of the Ukrainian economy due to the war fluctuate from $564 billion to $600 billion. This assessment, in addition to infrastructure losses, also includes indirect losses.

According to the results of 2022, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine may fall by 45.1% compared to the previous year. This is stated in the forecast of the World Bank.

Analysts expect a slow recovery in the Ukrainian economy. According to their estimates, in 2023 the country's GDP will grow by 2.1%, in 2024 - by 5.8%. Inflation in 2022 will be 15%, in 2023 - 19%, in 2024 - 8.4%, according to the forecast.

The war and the resulting displacement could have a significant impact on Ukraine's poverty rates, experts say. The share of the country's population living below the poverty line (for countries with comparable incomes, this threshold is $5.5 per day) threatens to grow sharply - from 1.8% to 19.8%.

According to preliminary estimates, the material damage caused to Enerhoatom by the russian occupiers exceeds UAH 18.3 billion as a result of the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia NPP.

The government is trying to restore the Ukrainian economy. The first billion hryvnas have been allocated for the reconstruction of settlements liberated from russian invaders. This was announced by Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmyhal.

In particular, UAH 400 million was allocated for the Kyiv region, UAH 250 million each for the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. Another UAH 100 million has been allocated for the Zhytomyr region.

The allocated funds will be used to repair engineering networks and systems for the restoration of heat, gas, water and electricity. In addition, the funds will be used to dismantle the damage, repair roofs, replace windows and doors, eliminate potholes and other priority needs.

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy predicts that according to the pessimistic scenario, 70% can be sown in Ukraine this year. If the territories of the Chernihiv and Sumy regions, which have huge agricultural areas, can be demined in the coming weeks, it is possible that the sown area will increase to 80%

7. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Military assistance to Ukraine. German Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalen Baerbock said Ukraine urgently needed military support to be able to defend the country against the russian attacks.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. About a thousand candles were lit in the Austrian capital in memory of the victims of the russian invasion of Ukraine.

Since the beginning of the war, more than 70% of PrivatBank's customers have received remittances online from abroad - by card and through a mobile application. In general, since February 24, Ukrainians have received $650 million in foreign transfers through PrivatBank, which is 65% more than in the same period last year.

Most aid comes from the United States, the UK, Germany, Israel, and Italy.

8. Provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.

The Prime Minister of Slovakia, Eduard Heger, has denied reports that the S-300 air defence system provided to Ukraine has been destroyed.

"Slovakia categorically denies russian propaganda that the S-300 defence system in Ukraine has been destroyed. This is a hoax,” wrote Eduard Heger.

The head of the President's Office, Andrii Yermak, said that russia was launching a "fake operation" on weapons handed over to us by the Allies. Prime Minister Eduard Heger has already refuted this information.

“What happens next? We know the scenarios of the russians. Here is one of them.

They can run fakes that Ukrainian soldiers seem to be giving up with weapons from the Allies, and it is (these that are) massively transferred to the russian army.

I want to warn (against) such fakes at once. Because the weapons in the hands of the soldiers of the Armed Forces (are) exclusively (to) send the enemy to hell”.

In Kherson, the occupiers mocked the Glory of Ukraine memorial in Kherson on the Perekopska Street, tore down the European Union flag, and tore up panels with photos of the Heavenly Hundred Heroes and those who were killed in the russian-Ukrainian war.

The occupiers tore down portraits of the Heavenly Hundred Heroes and the fallen participants of the russian-Ukrainian war. Boards “Kherson is Ukraine” were removed from the city..

According to a study by the BBC and the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), Facebook has created numerous "pro-Putin" groups glorifying russia and its president and trying to create a positive image for them in different parts of the world.

The group has more than 650,000 members. They have gained more than 100,000 new members since the February 24th invasion. These groups are quite popular and active: in the last month, researchers have counted 16,500 posts, received more than 3.6 million interactions.

9. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions and restrictions are being imposed on russia, which is having a negative impact on the russian economy. Net capital outflows from Russia in the first quarter of 2022 increased to $64.2 billion, compared to $17.5 billion in the same period last year.

russia is ready to go to court in case of default due to non-fulfilment of obligations on Eurobonds and prove that it has made all attempts to make payments. The russian Finance Ministry says that Western countries are artificially creating a “man-made default.”

The russian Railways has been recognised by the Credit Derivatives Committee as one of the defaults on one issue of Eurobonds. Bloomberg reported this.

russia's Railways have been declared insolvent on bonds for failing to pay last month, that was the first decision since sanctions were imposed on russia.

On April 11th, Finland suspended postal services with russia and with Belarus until further notice.

French financial conglomerate Societe Generale ceases its banking and insurance activities in russia: the main asset in russia - Rosbank - will be sold to Vladimir Potanin's Interros group of companies.

Swedish mobile equipment maker Ericsson has decided to suspend its business in russia indefinitely.

Cersanit has limited investment to three russian plumbing factories, now the owner plans to sell them to foreign investors.

In russia, the fitness industry is halting sales of new club cards - the industry expects a shortage of equipment and components against the background of sanctions against russia and falling solvency.