Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of April 6th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions and continue counterattacks.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the russians are concentrating their main forces on organizing an offensive operation to establish full control over the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In the Kherson region, as a result of the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy lost control over the settlements of Dobrianka, Novovoznesenske, and Trudoliubivka. 

In the Izium direction, the occupiers did not abandon their intentions to create a strike group and continue their attacks in the direction of Sloviansk and Barvinkovo.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy continues to attack in the areas of Popasna, Stepne, Novotoshkivske, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Solodke. They have as yet had no successes.

The russian occupiers continue to actively use banned ammunition and to attack Mariupol. Defenders of the city have been defending for more than 40 days.

The regrouping of troops and the restoration of combat capability of the Central Military District units withdrawn to the Bryansk and Kursk regions are nearing completion. The enemy planned to move units of the 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th All-Military Army of the Eastern Military District from the territory of Belarus to the Belgorod region. The movement of some units of the Central Military District to this region is also recorded.

The enemy also began to use the railway connection - the arrival of railway echelons with weapons and military equipment from the station Valuyky (russia) to the railway station Kupiansk (Ukraine) was recorded.

Total enemy combat losses from February 24 to April 6: combatants - about 18,600 people, tanks - 684 units, armoured combat vehicles - 1,861 units, artillery systems - 332 units, MLRS - 107 units, air defence - 55 units, aircraft - 150 units, helicopters - 135 units, vehicles - 1324 units, ships / boats - 7 units, fuel tanks - 76, operational-tactical level UAVs - 96, special equipment - 25, TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) - 4.

2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence.

Senior US Army Commander General Mark Milley (source - New York Post) believes that russia's invasion of Ukraine probably could not have been prevented by American troops, and that the war in Ukraine is likely to drag on for many years.

He said: “I do think this is a very protracted conflict, and I think it's measured in years. I don't know about decades, but at least years for sure. This is a very extended conflict that russia has initiated and I think that NATO, the United States, Ukraine and all of the allies and partners supporting Ukraine will be involved in this for quite some time”.

According to UK intelligence, the bodies of the dead residents of Bucha were lying on the streets when the city was under russian occupation. An analysis of satellite images from March 21st 2022 demonstrate at least eight identified bodies lying on Bucha Street in the Kyiv region. Bucha was occupied by the russian armed forces until March 31st 2022.

3. Genocide of the Ukrainian people, shocking tragedy in Bucha – “Bucha massacre”.

The genocide of the Ukrainian people, the mass killings of civilians, has manifested not only in Bucha, but also in other cities and villages of Ukraine, which were occupied by the russians.

More than 400 people have gone missing in a thirty-five-day occupation in Hostomel - eyewitnesses say some have died, but their whereabouts are still unknown. In Hostomel, russian troops killed the village head, Yurii Prylypko, and killed Ruslan Karpenko and Ivan Zoria, whose bodies were found.

russian mobile crematoria in partially occupied Mariupol, the Donetsk region, are burning the bodies of murdered city residents.

The Centre for Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has published a list of the russian servicemen who are directly involved in the killings of civilians in Bucha, Irpin, and Hostomel.

Pope Francis has condemned the atrocities of the russian occupiers in Bucha, Ukraine, at a weekly audience in the Vatican. This was reported by The Guardian.

The pontiff also showed a blue and yellow flag sent to him from Bucha during the audience.

russia is continuing to generate absurd propaganda, trying to misinform the world community about the mass genocide of Ukrainians. A spokeswoman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the russian federation, Maria Zakharova, has accused Western media of complicity in the killings of Ukrainians in Bucha: “Your television is a participant in this punitive action.”

4. The russian occupiers continue to violate international humanitarian law.

The russian aggressors continue to kill Ukrainian children. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the russian occupiers have killed at least 167 Ukranian children and injured 279 with varying severity. The Office of the Prosecutor General provided tragic statistics.

Most children were affected in the following districts: Kyiv - 78, Donetsk - 81, Kharkiv - 64, Chernihiv - 49, Mykolaiiv - 39, Luhansk - 31, Zaporizhzhia - 22, Kherson - 29, Sumy - 16, Zhytomyr – 15, and Kyiv City – 16.

In the Tulchyn in the Vinnytsia region, librarians laid out 165 children's books in the square in memory of girls and boys who died during the war.

The russian occupiers forcibly take Ukrainian children to russia. The enemy forcibly removed 12 children who were there for treatment from the medical institution of the Regional Children's Bone and Tuberculosis Centre in Mariupol.

The occupiers also forcibly removed a mother-educator of a family-type orphanage from Mariupol to Saransk, russia, along with her eight foster children, three children of her own, and three other foster children.

As a result of enemy bombing since the beginning of the war, the russians have damaged 927 educational institutions, 83 of which were completely destroyed.

The russian invaders continue to attack civilians daily. In Kyiv, during the 40 days of the war, 89 civilians were killed by the actions of the russian federation, including 4 children. Nearly 400 people were injured and 167 houses were damaged.

On the night of April 6th, missile strikes hit the Lviv, Vinnytsia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Fighting continues in the Kherson region, and shelling in the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Over the past 24 hours, the russian occupiers have fired mortars, artillery, multiple rocket launchers and aircraft at towns and villages in the Luhansk region 81 times, damaging civilian infrastructure and residential buildings.

Last night, the russian occupiers struck about 27 strikes from various weapons in residential areas of Kharkiv.

On April 6th, the russian occupiers shelled the city of Severodonetsk in the Luhansk region, as a result of which 10 high-rise buildings caught fire, and the number of victims is being determined.

In Rubizhne, during the last few days, there have been five victims and one dead person reported. In the Luhansk region 11 more houses have been destroyed.

In Vuhledar, the Donetsk region, the russians fired artillery at a humanitarian aid distribution site, killing two and injuring five.

During the war in Ukraine, the russian occupiers damaged or destroyed at least 150 monuments and cultural sites.

The abduction of Ukrainian civilians, their hostages and torture continue. Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk says that the russian occupiers are capturing peaceful Ukrainians en masse, but international humanitarian law prohibits the exchange of russian prisoners of war for civilian Ukrainians.

The Mayor of Skadovsk Oleksandr Yakovlev has left the city due to threats and "proposals" for cooperation from the russian military.

Former mayor of Rubizhne Serhii Hortiv not only sided with the russian invaders, but also passed on information about people with a pro-Ukrainian position to the occupiers.

5. The evacuation of civilians through the humanitarian corridors continues under constant attacks from the russian occupiers.

Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk and military administrations have called for the evacuation of residents of the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The heads of the military administrations of the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions are asking the population to leave the regions and are doing everything possible to ensure that the evacuation is organized. This is necessary now, because then people will be under fire and threatened with death.

On April 6th, 11 humanitarian corridors were confirmed, including from Mariupol. Also from Berdiansk, Tokmak, Enerhodar, Holiaipole and Melitopol to Zaporizhzhia. From Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Popasna, Hirske, and Rubizhne to Bakhmut.

6. International support and assistance for Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine and security guarantees. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has stated that the advisers of the leaders of seven countries are ready to discuss the content of the international agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine.

The Ukrainian head of state has announced a meeting of representatives of Ukraine's guarantor states: “For sure, they are the USA, the UK, Turkey, Poland, Germany, France, and Israel — the list is not completed, but I have mentioned the countries that are ready to come and discuss the security guarantees”.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stressed that currently the leaders of each of these countries have their own vision of guarantees, as well as different degrees of readiness for physical intervention in the war against Ukraine.

The Prime Minister of Ireland, Michael Martin, has stated that his country has supported Ukraine's application for EU membership and will continue to do so.

Military assistance to Ukraine. According to Lithuanian Minister of Defence, Arvydas Anušauskas (Delfi), Western countries are increasing military support for Ukraine and are gradually moving towards sending heavy equipment to Ukraine.

The United States will provide additional military assistance to Ukraine: Javelin anti-tank systems - for $ 100 million. Since February 24, the United States has provided
$1.7 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.

According to Information Defence analysts, qualitative changes have taken place in the issue of military assistance to Ukraine - the United States and other leading NATO countries have made a strategic decision to supply unrestricted weapons (except for nuclear, of course) to Ukraine.

The veto on the supply of heavy weapons, tanks, long-range and large-calibre artillery, anti-ship missiles, and even air defence systems, was lifted. Of course, our allies will focus primarily on Soviet models, as they do not need much time to study them for use at the front.

According to unofficial sources of Information Defence, this decision was made taking into account several factors.

First, the heroic struggle of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which provided a worthy response to the russian occupiers, skilfully using Western weapons transferred to Ukraine.

Second is the price of Ukraine's victory.

In a few days, a decisive battle of the russian-Ukrainian war will take place in eastern Ukraine. Despite the higher level of tactical training of UAF soldiers, the strategic and operational level of the Ukrainian command, Ukraine is currently losing to russia in the number of armoured vehicles, air defence systems and aircraft. The Armed Forces of Ukraine immediately need heavy weapons and air defence systems, without which it is almost impossible to win this war.

For the United States, the defeat of russia is critical given the further development of the geopolitical situation, the creation of a new system of world security. That is why the decision was made to supply weapons to Ukraine without any restrictions and as soon as possible.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The United States has handed over 18 modular buildings to the Transcarpathian region, which can provide temporary accommodation for people under any conditions.

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

The Western allies impose new sanctions on russia. The United States, along with the G7 and the EU, is imposing new sanctions on the russian president putin's daughters, russia's largest banks, Alfa Bank and Sberbank, and banning all new investments in russia.

White House spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki was quoted by The Guardian  as saying that US sanctions were aimed at depleting russia's resources for the war in Ukraine and putting Moscow in a position of impossible choice: depletion of its dollar reserves or default: "russia has no unlimited resources, especially now, given the destructive sanctions we have imposed, most of our goal here is to deplete the resources that putin has to continue his war against Ukraine.”

The United Kingdom has announced a new package of sanctions against the russian federation in connection with the crimes of the russian military against the civilian population in Ukraine.

Key restrictions include: freezing the assets of Sberbank and Moscow's Credit Bank; a ban on all new investment in russia (in 2020, the amount of the UK investment in russia amounted to more than 11 billion pounds), which will strategically weaken the russian economy; abandonment of russian coal and oil by the end of 2022, and of gas “as soon as possible” thereafter .

russia is approaching default. russia's Ministry of Finance has transferred funds to pay coupon income and repay Eurobonds in rubles, as the correspondent bank did not allow payments in dollars, which could mean defaulting.

The explanation states that the foreign correspondent bank refused to execute orders for Eurobonds maturing in 2022 and 2042 in the total amount of $649.2 million.

In russia, such obligations are considered "fulfilled", but in most cases, foreign creditors do not recognize the russian currency as repayment of foreign currency debt. If this happens with Monday's payment, this will mean a technical default of the russian federation.

Sanctions and restrictions against russia have a negative impact on the russian economy. Chinese state-owned refineries are fulfilling existing russian oil agreements, but are avoiding new ones, despite discounts, for fear of tightening Western sanctions against russia. This was reported by Reuters with reference to six sources.

Thus, the state-owned Sinopec, Asia's largest refiner, CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinochem reneged from buying russian cargo of oil with delivery in May.

The value of russian real estate is frozen in Latvia due to sanctions that exceed 100 million euros, but it is expected that it may increase.

The Danish manufacturer of equipment for renewable energy, Vestas, is leaving the russian market due to the russian invasion of Ukraine. The US company Intel has stopped all business operations in russia.