Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defense

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, as of the past day on March 31st, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The russian occupiers have not achieved success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, russia’s main efforts are focused on maintaining the previously occupied borders, preparing to resume the offensive attacks in certain areas and establishing full control over the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

To attack the Eastern Operational Zone, the enemy regroups and forms groups of its armed forces. The transfer of troops and equipment from Belarus to the territory of the russian federation by rail was recorded.

Olexander Hruzevych, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Land Forces Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at a briefing on March 31st, informed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are observing a partial withdrawal of battalion tactical groups of the russian troops from Kyiv.

In particular, the enemy is moving units of the 35th, 36th armies and 76th Airborne Assault Division from the Polissia Operational District. During the night of March 30th, almost 700 units of equipment were counted, which moved towards Ivankiv, towards the Belarusian border.

At the same time, the so-called "withdrawal of troops" is probably a rotation of individual units and its aim is to mislead the military leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and create a misconception about the occupiers’ refusal to surround Kyiv according to the enemies’ plan.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemies are concentrating their main efforts on taking control of the settlements of Popasna, Rubizhne, as well as the capture of Mariupol. The russians intensified air strikes with the use of operational and tactical aircraft on the troops and facilities in the Lysychansk, Rubizhne, Popasna, and Kreminna districts.

russian occupation forces are trying to create a new group of troops in the Slobozhanskyi direction in order to establish control over parts of the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions, including the blockade of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Together with other units of the Defence Forces of the Zaporizhzhia region, paratroopers have already liberated such settlements as Zatyshshia, Malynivka, Vesele, Zelenyi Hai, and Chervone.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 31.03 were approximately: about 17,500 combatants, tanks - 614 units, armoured combat vehicles - 1735 units, artillery systems - 311 units, MLRS - 96 units, air defence - 54 units, aircraft - 135 units, helicopters - 131 units, vehicles - 1201 units, ships / boats - 7 units, fuel tanks - 75, UAVs operational and tactical level - 83, special equipment - 22, launchers OTRK / TRK - 4.

2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence.

Commenting on the situation with the movement of russian troops in Kyiv and Chernihiv, US Defense Department spokesman John Kirby has said that over the past 24 hours, the Pentagon has seen regrouping of less than 20% of battalion tactical groups near Kyiv.

Some of them are redeployed to Belarus, but none of the units has returned to its permanent garrison.

The latest intelligence review by the UK Ministry of Defence predicts that fierce fighting is likely to unfold on the outskirts of Kyiv in the coming days.

The Central Intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine states that Ukraine is not hostile to the Belarusian people, but the GUR (The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine) is ready to publish data on Belarusian servicemen who will agree to fight against Ukraine.

3. The russian occupiers continue to violate international humanitarian law.

The russian aggressors continue to kill Ukrainian children. As of March 31st, 148 children have been killed and 232 injured in Ukraine since the first day of the russian invasion.

The russian invaders continue to attack civilians daily. As of March 31st, more than 1,339 settlements in Ukraine remain without electricity, with a total of more than 925,000 consumers. 338 thousand consumers remain without gas supply.

During the 35 days of the war, 1,531 buildings were destroyed in Kharkiv, including 1,292 residential buildings. The russian army destroyed 76 schools, 54 kindergartens, 16 hospitals, and 239 administrative buildings are in ruins. Since the beginning of the full-scale russian invasion, Kharkiv has been shelled daily, with about a third of the city's residents leaving.

At least one person was killed and three were injured in shelling of the city council in Derhachi, in the Kharkiv region.

The russian military continued to fire on the central part of the Donetsk region during the night of March 30th-31st.

In Lysychansk, in the Luhansk region, a family was injured when a shell hit a house, a girl under 2 died, and doctors are fighting for her older brother's life. Two people died as a result of daytime shelling in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

A school caught fire in Severodonetsk due to the russian shelling, and an oil depot caught fire in Lysychansk.

The abduction of civilians and the taking of hostages continues. According to Ukrainian authorities, the russian occupiers illegally deported 45,000 Mariupol residents to the territory of the russian federation and the territory controlled by the so-called “DPR” (in Ukrainian “DNR” – “The Donetsk People’s Republic”) militants.

According to the Office of the President of Ukraine, 24 local government officials and civil servants are being held captive by russians, and information on two more people is being clarified.

Residents of the community came to a peaceful rally in the Kherson region in Hola Prystan’. People are demanding that the russian military return Mayor Olexander Babych and other abducted locals.

4. Under attacks by the russian occupiers, evacuation through the humanitarian corridors continues.

According to Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk, as of March 31st, two humanitarian corridors were confirmed - from Melitopol and Enerhodar, and access was opened for the humanitarian convoy to Mariupol with transit through Berdiansk.

On March 31st, 45 evacuation buses arrived in Berdiansk, but were not allowed to enter the city. More than 30 buses remain at the entrance to Berdiansk. 600 people got on buses from the city and have to leave for Zaporizhzhia on the morning of April 1st.

12 evacuation buses loaded with humanitarian aid arrived in Melitopol, but all cargo, 14 tons of food and medicine were confiscated by the occupiers, despite agreements and guarantees from the International Red Cross that the corridors would function.

1458 people, including 631 people from Mariupol and 827 residents of the Zaporizhzhia region, travelled to Zaporizhzhia through the confirmed humanitarian corridors.

5. Socio-economic situation in Ukraine, losses due to the russian aggression

The spring crop sowing  has been started in 20 regions of Ukraine. At this time in 2021, sowing began in only 15 regions. In 2022, according to current data, sowing can be carried out on 6 million hectares of land. This is 80% of the area sown last year.

According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Ukraine's economy will shrink by one-fifth this year and then recover in 2023 if everything goes according to the ceasefire scenario in a couple of months.

Daily turnover in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of russia has decreased from 500-700 million dollars to 100-200 million dollars.

Entrepreneurs have already submitted 148,499 tax applications for the transition to 2% of the single tax. 29,585 are legal entities and 118,914 are individual entrepreneurs.

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine and security guarantees. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said that his country is ready to be one of the guarantors of security for Ukraine, but details remain to be determined.

Military assistance to Ukraine. According to John Kirby, a spokesman for the US Department of Defense, the United States has sent the first 30 aid consignments with weapons by planes to Ukraine (cargo aircrafts): “Deliveries come to the region every day, including for the last 24 hours. We have already shipped the first 5 (cargo planes) out of about 30 within the $800 million approved by the President.”

The Ukrainian military submitted a list of military equipment to the US Congress needed to deter russian aggression. In particular, it includes reconnaissance and drone strikes, tactical radars, electronic drone combat systems, and combat aircraft, including the Su-25.

The list also includes artillery systems, anti-aircraft missile systems, Javelin anti-tank missiles, anti-ship missiles and optical surveillance equipment. The list also includes requests for assistance in treating wounded troops and repairing equipment, including mobile military medical hospitals.

The UK Minister of Defence Ben Wallace said that Ukraine would be sent more lethal weapons to counter russian aggression. The new supply will include longer-range artillery and more anti-aircraft missiles.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Sweden will allocate 10.5 billion Swedish kronor ($ 1.1 billion) in housing and other expenses for Ukrainian refugees in the spring budget.

7. Provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.

The russian Ministry of Defence is spreading another unfounded story about the development by the Ukrainian company Motor Sich of a modification of the Turkish Bayraktar UAV with an aerosol virus spray.

In particular, it was stated at the briefing that the request of the Ukrainian company Motor Sich to the Turkish manufacturer Bayraktar regarding the possibility of spraying them with aerosols is noteworthy.

It was stated as fact that this is about the development of biological weapons by the Kyiv authorities as a means of delivery with the possibility of their use against russia. At the same time, no documentary or visual evidence of such a request was provided in russian propaganda .

In addition, the briefing came up with a new reason for the russian military invasion - to suspend the activities of 5 "biolaboratories" in Kyiv.

Gennady Gatilov, russia's envoy to the United Nations and international organisations in Geneva, said that Germany had allegedly implemented its own military-biological program in Ukraine, under which Ukraine undertook to supply it with “samples of Slavic ethnos blood.”

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions.

According to Medusa sources close to the russian presidential administration, the kremlin has realised that it will not be possible to capture Kyiv and that it will be difficult for russia to survive under tough Western sanctions, so they are looking for a way to explain the truce with Ukraine.

The failures of the war explain the softening of russia's position during the negotiations. In addition, Medusa's interlocutors claim that in late March, government officials gave putin an account of reports about the russian economy. According to these documents, according to one source, “the country will not be able to live normally under such sanctions.”

Settlements in rubles turned out to be a russian fake. russian president putin has signed a decree on the payment of gas in rubles by EU countries, but probably nothing will change for the EU.

Gazprombank (which is still not subject to sanctions and is not cut off from SWIFT) will open special ruble accounts for foreign buyers to pay for gas. EU companies will be able to continue to pay in euros, and the bank will already convert the currency into rubles.

New sanctions and restrictions are being imposed on russia, which is having a negative impact on the russian economy. As of March 25th, 2022, russia's international reserves amounted to $ 604.4 billion, decreasing from February 18, 2022 by $ 38.8 billion.

The United States has imposed secondary sanctions against companies that are not registered in russia, but can help the aggressor evade sanctions.

Restrictions were imposed on legal entities registered in Singapore, Malta, the UK, Spain and others. They are mainly related to scientific developments and technologies. 21 companies registered both in russia and abroad have been added to the sanctions list.

The Australian government has decided to increase tariffs on imports of all products from the russian federation and Belarus by 35%.

The largest aircraft leasing company has filed a lawsuit for $ 3.5 billion for planes stolen by russia in response to sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.

Sales of American, European, and Japanese cars in March in russia eventually stopped due to the lack of new supplies, and prices in car dealerships increased many times.

Serial production of russian MS-21 civil aircraft will shift by one or two years. This is due to the refusal to supply engines from the US company Pratt & Whitney. They want to replace them with the russian ones.

Large international companies continue to leave the russian trade market. Due to the mass exit from the russian market of foreign brands, the developers in russia are forced to postpone the opening of shopping centres - for the first quarter in Moscow, not one of the shopping centres has been opened.