Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, morning of March 30th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The russian occupiers have not achieved success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy is regrouping and concentrating the efforts on conducting offensive attacks in the Eastern Operational Zone. The accumulation of the occupation troops in the area of the Chornobyl NPP, the Shelter facility, and the exclusion zone in general continues.

The russians have not yet given up trying to capture or at least encircle Kyiv and Chernihiv, despite russia's claims of a drastic reduction in hostilities in these areas.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has noted a partial relocation of individual units from the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas. At the same time, there is no mass withdrawal of the russian troops from these areas.

In the Izium direction, the enemy is increasing its efforts by moving individual units from the 20th General Army and the 1st Panzer Army from other areas. He continues to launch missile and bomb strikes and fire artillery.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemies have intensified fire and assault operations. They continue to launch air and missile strikes on settlements. The main efforts are focused on taking control of the cities of Popasna, Rubizhne, and Mariupol.

The total losses of the occupiers were:

In particular, on March 30th, in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions, the Ukrainian military destroyed 10 tanks, 18 units of armored and 13 units of motor vehicles, as well as 15 artillery systems.

2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence.

As highlighted in the latest intelligence review by the UK intelligence, “with its statement on the concentration of major efforts in the Donbas, russia has recognized the difficulty of supporting more than one significant offensive direction.”

The UK Ministry of Defence has also stressed that russian units, having sustained heavy losses, were forced to return to Belarus and russia to reform and replenish their supplies.

Such activity puts additional pressure on russia's already heavily strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties that russia faces in reorganizing its units in the advanced areas of Ukraine.

At the same time, russia is likely to continue to compensate for its limited ground maneuvering capabilities with massive artillery and missile strikes.

3. The russian occupiers continue to violate international humanitarian law.

Violating international humanitarian law, in the occupied settlements of the Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv regions, the russian occupiers terrorize local residents and fire on houses; rob, kidnap, and  take civilians hostage, engage in looting.

The bombing and shelling has damaged 790 schools, 75 of which were completely destroyed.

The worst situation is in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Kherson, Chernihiv regions and Kyiv Capital.

The russian occupiers are placing banned mines with seismic sensors in the occupied territories of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

russians used banned phosphate munitions in Mar’iinka, the Donetsk region, and about a dozen fires broke out in the city.

The russian aggressors continue to kill Ukrainian children. Juvenile prosecutors have confirmed that 145 children were killed and 222 wounded during full-scale hostilities in Ukraine.

The most affected children were in the Kyiv region - 69, the Kharkiv region - 49, the Donetsk region - 54, the Chernihiv region - 39, the Mykolaiiv region - 30, the Luhansk region - 28, the Zaporizhzhia region - 22, the Kherson region - 25, Kyiv Capital - 16, the Sumy region - 16, the Zhytomyr region - 15.

The russian invaders continue to attack civilians daily. The mayor of Irpin Oleksandr Makrushyn said that according to preliminary data, up to 300 civilians and up to 50 servicemen had been killed in Irpin: “People they didn't like were just shot. Maybe someone will not like this but it is true. Those who were killed just were crushed by the tanks, just rolled into the asphalt”.

Over the past 24 hours, the russian forces have carried out artillery, mortar and MLRS shelling in the Kharkiv region, a total of 39 times: the Saltivka, Oleksiiivka, Kholodna Hora, HTZ, Chuhuiiv, and Dergachiv districts. Also recorded about 180 attacks by the enemy with MLRS “Grad”.

On the morning of March 30th, in the Luhansk region, the russians fired on Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, Popasna, Kreminna, and Lysychansk.

At about 10:00 a.m. on March 30th, the russian occupiers fired artillery at the town of Lysychansk in the Luhansk region, resulting in shrapnel wounds to a family of four with two children in critical condition.

As a result of the russian shelling of Nizhyn on March 29th, one person was killed and six other civilians were injured, including one child.

The number of victims of enemy shelling of the regional state administration in Mykolaiiv on March 29th was increased to 16 people.

The abduction of civilians and their hostages continue. The russian military has taken 12-year-old Kira, the daughter of the multiple Ukrainian water polo champion and former captain of the Ukrainian national team Yevhen Obedynskyi, who died in Mariupol, to occupied Donetsk.

The russian military abducted eight people in Hola Prystan’, including several local government officials.

Among them are the Mayor of Hola Prystan Oleksandr Babych, the Mayor of Stara Zbur’iivka Viktor Maruniak, the citizens Korop, Dvornyi, Kononov, Chobotar, Toropov and Pashchenko. Serhii Pashchenko was the last who disappeared on the territory of Stara Zbur’iivka.

Serhii Chudynovych, a priest of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine who is known in the city as a public figure and a volunteer, was abducted in Kherson, which is temporarily occupied by the russian military. In the evening, the russian military released him.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy is trying to create military-civilian administrations to control the temporarily occupied territories of southern Ukraine and has begun preparations for a referendum on a quasi-state in the Kherson region (the so-called Kherson People's Republic).

4. Under attacks by the russian occupiers, evacuation through the humanitarian corridors continues.

According to Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk, on March 30th the Ukrainian authorities approved three "green corridors" for evacuation of the people and delivery of humanitarian aid, all of them in the Zaporizhzhia region:

• for the evacuation from Mariupol and the delivery of humanitarian aid to Berdiansk;
• delivery of humanitarian aid and evacuation of people from Melitopol;
• for the column of transport from Enerhodar to Zaporizhzhia.

On March 30th, 812 Mariupol residents from Berdiansk and 718 residents of the Zaporizhzhia district were evacuated from other settlements. In particular, they are residents of Berdiansk, Melitopol, Polohy, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Vasylivka, and Enerhodar.

In general, during the last 24 hours, the Ukrainian authorities have managed to evacuate 1,530 people from places of active hostilities through the humanitarian corridors.

5. Socio-economic situation in Ukraine, losses due to the russian aggression.

As of March 30th, 2022, the balance on the special account opened by the National Bank to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine is about UAH 200 million.

In general, since the opening of the special account, about UAH 13.4 billion in equivalent has been transferred to it. In particular, almost UAH 3.9 billion in foreign currency was received from abroad.

According to US First Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, quoted by Ukrinform , the russian Navy is blocking access to Ukrainian ports, which effectively stops grain exports. According to reports, they do not allow about 94 vessels carrying food for the world market to enter the Mediterranean. Now many shippers do not dare to send their ships to the Black Sea, even to the russian ports.

About 30% of world wheat exports typically come from the Black Sea region, as well as 20% of corn and 75% of sunflower oil.

Currently, the daily income from the work of Ukrainian customs is 15-20% of the pre-war period, i.e. the losses are approximately 80%. During the month of the war, Ukraine was short of $ 1.5 billion in food exports .

Ukraine's metallurgical losses from the russian war are 30-40% of their pre-war capacity.

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine and security guarantees. The presidents of Ukraine and the United States, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Joe Biden, discussed by telephone how Washington would further support Kyiv in the war waged by russia. During the conversation, Biden said that the United States would provide $ 500 million in aid to Ukraine.

Additional sanctions and humanitarian aid announced last week were also discussed. President Zelenskyy briefed President Biden on the status of Ukraine's negotiations with russia.

The Permanent Representative of the UK to the United Nations stated that her country is ready to "play its part" in providing security guarantees for Ukraine if Kyiv requests this.

At the same time, the Deputy Prime Minister of the UK Dominic Raab stressed that the UK will consider Ukraine's request to become a guarantor of its security, but excludes the commitment of NATO members to the Alliance.

According to Reuters, Germany is ready to become a guarantor of Ukraine's security within its future peace treaty with the russian federation. But it is unknown whether such guarantees will include a military component.

In a telephone conversation with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed "general readiness" to act as a guarantor of security. 

The Federal Parliament of Canada has supported the abolition of the visa regime with Ukraine. Deputies also called on the government to "support Ukrainians and other residents of the country affected by the conflict."

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Since the beginning of the large-scale russian invasion of Ukraine, more than 20,000 vehicles with humanitarian cargo have been registered at checkpoints on the state border.

Border guards said that the largest amount of humanitarian aid was transported from Poland and Slovakia. In the three weeks of March, almost 150,000 tons of humanitarian aid were sent to Ukraine .

From the beginning of the charity initiative, Epic Games, the developer of the game Fortnite, the users of the game managed to raise $ 100 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

7. Provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.

On Wednesday, March 30th, the official representative of the Ministry of Defence of the russian federation, Major General Igor Konashenkov, stated at a briefing that allegedly Jewish facilities in Uman were used by "Ukrainian nationalists."

The Jewish community in Ukraine refutes the words of the russian invaders that "Ukrainian nationalists" are allegedly using Jewish objects in Uman. The United Jewish Community of Ukraine (UNU) states (source - Censor. No ) that all synagogues and Jewish sites in Ukraine are used exclusively for religious purposes or to help members of Jewish communities and the local population.

According to the Center for Combating Disinformation at the National Security and Defence Council, the russian invaders are shelling the occupied settlements to discredit the Armed Forces in front of the local people.

Another fake was that the Defence Ministry of russia said that the political and military leadership of Ukraine allegedly "orders the National Battalion to shoot staged videos about the alleged military killings of russian civilians and looting."

In addition, russian propagandists continue to promote manipulative theses "no Russophobes, russians should not be responsible for putin, russians should not suffer from sanctions." According to the news, Marina Ovsyannikova announced this on the air of the Italian TV channel «RAI».

According to Kommersant, russia's envoy to the UN Vasily Nebenzya claims that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of russia allegedly has evidence that cars with medical symbols are used to import weapons to Ukraine.

He stated that the relevant facts were recorded on video and posted on the Internet. He also stressed that "russia is concerned that the Ukrainian armed forces are seizing cars with UN symbols for hostilities."

According to Information Defence analysts, Vasily Nebenzya's statement may be a preparation for public opinion that the russian military will attack both medical and diplomatic vehicles.

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions.

As a result of total propaganda and misinformation, putin has secured significant public support. The russian sociological agency Levada Center found that after the full-scale russian invasion of Ukraine, russian support for putin's actions increased to 83%.

It grew by more than 10% in March compared to February and January. Sociologists at the Levada Center recorded support for putin at 69% and 71% in January and February, respectively. 15% of Russians do not support putin's actions, in February and January 27% and 29% of respondents, respectively.

Oil embargo.  The German government said on Wednesday that it had received assurances from russia that Europe would not have to pay for russian gas supplies in rubles and that nothing would change for EU partners.

But this is not a concession from russia: putin explained that the amount would be credited to an account in GazpromBank, which did not fall under sanctions, and then transferred in rubles to russia. Thus, putin has in fact stated that European companies can continue to pay in euros or dollars.

In the event of a significant reduction in russian gas supplies, France intends to suspend and systematically cut off natural gas supplies to the largest consumers without compromising their economic activities.

New sanctions and restrictions are being imposed on russia, which is having a negative impact on the russian economy. 68% of russian small and medium companies after the sanctions against russia and the fall of the ruble have reduced staff costs, the most common measure - downsizing. This was reported by RBC with reference to the results of a survey conducted by the NAFI Analytical Center.

The most common measures were: staff reductions - 27% of respondents, abolition of the motivation system (social package, bonuses, bonuses, etc.) - 26%, reduction of salaries - 25%.

Due to difficulties in receiving payments for grain against the background of russia's invasion of Ukraine and sanctions, the russian grain exporters have asked the Central Bank to work out the possibility of paying for grain in rubles for the largest world buyers.

The UK has passed a new law banning the maintenance of planes or ships owned by specific russian oligarchs under sanctions or their businesses.

Minister of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine Oleksandr Tkachenko calls on UNESCO to move the 45th session from Kazan, Russia, to Lviv, Ukraine. He also believes that a country that cynically destroys Ukrainian cultural monuments and seeks to destroy Ukraine physically and historically cannot be a member of UNESCO.

Large international companies continue to leave the russian trade market. The Danish chain of furniture stores JYSK, after temporarily closing stores in russia on March 3rd, decided to completely terminate the business with the aggressor.

Ritter Sport company despite the war against Ukraine, has no plans to leave russia, which is an important market for the German chocolate producer, and will continue to supply the aggressor with chocolate.