Yevhen Mahda, Executive Director of the "Institute of World Policy"
 

On November 1, Poland observes All Saints' Day. Nearly every Pole will visit the graves of their deceased loved ones on this day. I'll use this moment to discuss the prospects of Polish-Ukrainian relations.

Since April 2023, relations between our countries have been deteriorating. For a year and a half now, Poland and Ukraine have been descending from the peak of understanding reached during the initial Russian aggression and subsequent response, as if in a giant slalom of bilateral grievances and resentments. Opportunities to halt on a plateau of mutual interests are dwindling. There was the "grain crisis" last year (incidentally, little is said about who exactly was behind flooding the Polish market with Ukrainian grain), the symbolic dumping of grain on the ground by Polish Confederation protesters, aimed at making a psychological impact, Polish farmers blocking cargo transport across the border during New Year and Christmas, and the striking political unity in Poland around demanding that Ukraine acknowledge responsibility for the Volyn tragedy as a step towards European integration. Public grievances from Polish and Ukrainian politicians add to this mix.

This bouquet of mutual grievances should not be placed on the grave of Polish-Ukrainian strategic partnership. Such a scenario would pose a serious threat to European security, and Moscow would celebrate the rift between Poland and Ukraine, which has long been one of its goals.

Recent events, however, allow some hope for improved Polish-Ukrainian relations. Poland’s Acting Chargé d'Affaires in Ukraine, Piotr Łukasiewicz, gave a strategically significant interview to Ukrinform, sharing his vision for Poland’s diplomatic mission in Ukraine—pragmatically and sympathetically, with clearly marked reference points. On October 31, President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Vasyl Bodnar as Ukraine’s Ambassador to Poland. Bodnar is an experienced diplomat whose posting to Warsaw had been planned a few years ago, though he ended up serving in Ankara instead.

The topic of the Volyn tragedy has, unsurprisingly, become a unifying factor for the Polish political elite. Polish politicians don’t need to explain to their citizens why it’s necessary to give a dignified burial to the victims of the tragic events of World War II. This narrative is firmly rooted in Polish collective consciousness, thanks to the powerful role of historical memory in shaping common values in Polish society. Ukraine, unfortunately, can only dream of this. But dreaming alone is insufficient; action is required. The initiation of search and excavation efforts in the former Volyn Voivodeship of the Second Polish Republic could serve as a meaningful step in rebuilding mutual trust. However, rapid results should not be expected given the ongoing war with Russia and the vast areas involved. For now, the Volyn tragedy remains topical, serving as a sort of audition platform for Poland’s presidential candidates, as this election, scheduled for spring 2025, will be pivotal for a semi-presidential republic like Poland.

Unfortunately, official Kyiv did not include Poland among the first allies briefed on the classified portion of Zelensky's victory plan. This is despite Poland repeatedly emphasizing its substantial military and technical support to Ukraine during the initial weeks and months of the Russian invasion. Poland's political rift between Donald Tusk and Andrzej Duda does not justify Ukraine's position, particularly considering that, in March 2024, Poland’s president and prime minister traveled to the U.S. to discuss strengthening defense capabilities with President Joe Biden. Those publicly demanding that Poland provide advanced weapons to Ukraine are likely underestimating the ambitions of Poland’s military-political leadership—and, frankly, overlooking the current challenges facing the Polish military.

Moreover, Poland's interest in contributing to Ukraine's post-war recovery should be taken into account. Polish businesses are concerned not only about the influence of Ukrainian oligarchs (a historical echo of the magnates of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth) but also, more recently, about the potential role of multinational corporations. Even small signals from Kyiv indicating an understanding of Polish business needs could help rebuild trust.

On January 1, 2025, Poland will assume the Presidency of the Council of the European Union from Hungary. If Warsaw and Kyiv fail to develop a roadmap for cooperation towards Ukraine's EU integration by then, there will be few opportunities for understanding at the state level. This presidency will coincide with Poland’s presidential campaign, which could either bolster Donald Tusk’s influence, despite his decision not to run, or maintain the current political balance. Politics may not be the realm of saints, but those who can rise above tactical moves to pursue the strategic interests of their country have a chance at success.