Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of April 2nd, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The russian occupiers have not achieved success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, up to 75 BTGs have been involved in combat missions on the territory of Ukraine, up to 34 BTGs are being repaired, and 16 BTGs have been completely destroyed (this information is being clarified).

russian troops are trying to reach the administrative borders of the Kherson region in southern Ukraine and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east. They are holding the borders in the occupied territories of the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions in order to distract some parts of the Ukrainian army.

In the Donetsk area, the enemy is still attempting to seize Mariupol and to block Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Popasna, Troiitske, Avdijivka, Mar’inka, and Krasnohorivka. The occupiers have had no success and have sustained heavy losses.

Regarding operational and tactical group "East", russian troops carried out two attacks on Ukrainian defensive positions and sustained losses of up to 80 combatants, three tanks, two BMP artillery systems, one mortar, and three JSCs.

Total enemy combat losses from February 24th to April 2nd are approximately 17,800 combatants, 1776 armored fighting vehicles, 1236 autos, 631 tanks, 317 artillery systems, 76 tankers, 143 aircraft, 134 helicopters, 100 MLRS, 54 air defenсe systems, 87 drones, and seven boats.

 

According to former Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov, an internal report of the Ministry of Defence of the russian federation states that russia’s operational loss of manpower is 17,549 personnel. Private military company losses include 5,366 personnel. The total loss of manpower of the russian Armed Forces and russian APCs (armored personnel carrier) is 22,915. These data are verified to the information of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

 

2. Information summary and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence.

In mid-January, US intelligence provided Ukraine's top leaders with detailed russian plans to attack Kyiv, which could play a key role in successfully repelling the attack on the capital in the critical first days of the war. This is according to a long piece in  The Wall Street Journal (the WSJ).

The WSJ writes that during a secret visit to Kyiv in mid-January, intelligence chief William Bjorns met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and provided him with new information received by the United States about the russian federation's plans.

US intelligence was aware of the russians' intent to advance from Belarus through the Chernobyl zone, to seize the airport in Hostomel, and to use it as a springboard for an attack on Kyiv.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine reported that residents of the Izium district (in the Kharkiv region) "treated" russians from the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division with poisoned food. As a result, two russians died instantly and another 28 were taken to the intensive care unit.

According to military intelligence[MOU1] , about 500 more servicemen of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the russian federation are in hospitals due to alcohol poisoning of unknown origin.

 

 3. The russian invaders continue to violate international humanitarian law.

The russian aggressors continue to kill Ukrainian children. According to the Prosecutor General 's Office[MOU2]  of Ukraine, 158 children have been killed and 258 children have been injured in Ukraine since the beginning of russia's military aggression.

Seventy-five children were injured in the Kyiv region, 71 in the Donetsk region, 56 in the Kharkiv region, 46 in the Chernihiv region, 31 in the Mykolaiiv and Luhansk regions, 22 in  the Zaporizhzhia region, 29 in  the Kherson region, 16 in the city of Kyiv,  16 in the Sumy region, and 15 in the Zhytomyr region.

Every six hours putin kills one child in Ukraine.

Every three hours his “orks” injure one little Ukrainian.

An outrageous incident occurred in the Chernihiv region, where from March 18 to March 20, the russian occupiers fired artillery at a convoy of civilian vehicles. As a result, 13 people died, two of whom were children.

The russian invaders continue to attack civilians daily. UNESCO has confirmed that at least 53 cultural heritage sites in Ukraine have been damaged since the start of russia's invasion.

In Kyiv, 154 houses, 20 private estates, 27 kindergartens, and 44 schools have been damaged since the beginning of the invasion.

In Chernihiv and Kyiv, the night of April 2nd was calmer than the previous nights. However, russian forces fired missiles in the Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions, used artillery in the Kharkiv region, and shelled the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson regions.

In the Luhansk region, as a result of shelling, 19 structures were destroyed (including nine apartment buildings; seven private houses were damaged and one person was wounded).

As a result of rocket fire in the Pavlohrad district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, railroad was damaged and cars were exploded; one person was injured.

The number of victims of the missile strike on the Mykolaiiv region was originally stated on March 29th, but has increased to 36 people with 34 reported wounded.

In the temporarily occupied Balakliia of the Kharkiv region, russian shells hit a district hospital and patients and staff need to be evacuated immediately.

Peaceful resistance by Ukrainian citizens continues. Residents of the occupied city of Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region gathered for a rally on April 2nd. russian occupiers caused grenade explosions and shelling, resulting in wounded and detained people there.

The abduction and hostage-taking of civilians continues. After the liberation of the Kyiv region, the bodies of Olha Sukhenko (the head of the village of Motyzhyn) and her husband were found. They had been abducted by the russians on March 23rd.

russian invaders have been detaining the leader of the Melitopol district council, Serhii Pryima, for more than two weeks and have also kidnaped five school principals there.

As of the evening of April 1st, there is no information about the whereabouts of the mayor of Tavriia, Mykola Rizak, after his detention by the russian military. The reason for his detention and the demands of the occupying forces have not been reliably established.

The deputy head of the Novoslobidska OTG (united territorial community) in the Sumy region was also captured by the russian military.

4. Evacuation of civilians through humanitarian corridors continues under attacks by russians.

On April 1st, people were evacuated through the humanitarian corridors from the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Specifically, the following numbers of people were evacuated: Mariupol – 3,071 people, Severodonetsk - 285 people, Rubizhne - 60 people, Lysychansk - 1,300 people, Kreminna - 52 people, Popasna - 38 people, Polohy - 452 people, Vasylivka - 180 people, Melitopol - 813 people, Berdiansk - 15 people.

6,266 people were evacuated through the humanitarian corridors on April 1st.

Eighty-six Ukrainian servicemen were released from captivity by prisoner exchange on April 1st and are returning home.

 

As of April 2nd, seven humanitarian corridors in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions were open along the following the routes: from Mariupol and Berdiansk to Zaporizhzhia and from Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Rubizhne, Popasna, and Nyzhnie to Bakhmut.

On Saturday, April 2nd, 1,263 people travelled to Zaporizhzhia by their own transport through the humanitarian corridors from Berdiansk and Melitopol. 765 people from Mariupol and 498 residents of the Zaporizhzhia region, including Berdiansk, Melitopol, Polohy, Orikhiv, and Vasylivka.

In addition, 10 buses from Berdiansk with more than 304 Mariupol citizens have passed through the last checkpoint of the occupying forces in Vasylivka.

On April 2nd, 2,650 people were evacuated from Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Kreminna, Popasna, and Nyzhnie in the Luhansk region.

Overall, 4,217 people were evacuated on Saturday, April 2nd via the humanitarian corridors.

 

5. Socio-economic situation in Ukraine and losses due to russian aggression.

Ukraine spends about $ 10 billion per month on hostilities. According to data from Ukraine’s Ministry of the Economy, the decline in GDP in the first quarter of 2022 will be 16%, and the decline this year may reach as high as 40%.

Economic sectors for which remote work is impossible have suffered the most. In particular, these include air and sea transportation services, where businesses work directly with consumers.

150 enterprises from different regions of Ukraine were relocated to the western regions of the country as part of an evacuation program, of which 57 restart their operations.

As of April 2nd, 1,322 applications for relocation have been submitted, of which 435 had already been ready for transportation.

Marketplace ALLO reports significant problems, including mass layoffs, asset losses, falling margins, and rental difficulties. However, the company is gradually adapting to new conditions.

Since the beginning of the russian invasion, 620,000 Ukrainians from abroad have returned to Ukraine. Recently, there has been an increase in the number of Ukrainian citizens returning home. In the first weeks of the conflict, the majority of Ukrainians who returned were men; now the increase is due to women and children returning.

Almost 32,000 people left Ukraine as refuges on April 1st. Almost 23,000 people came to our country; more than 19,000 of them are Ukrainians.

 

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine and security guarantees. The President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, stated that Ukraine urgently needs help from EU partners, and while what has already been done is a lot, it is not enough. She stated this by video message after returning from Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told US President Joe Biden that he would like for the United States to be included in the agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine. President Zelenskyy clarified that the United States is “considering this proposal.”

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Italy, Luigi Di Mayo, has said that the Italian government is ready to contribute to the peace process and to act as a guarantor of Ukraine's neutrality.

The Minister of the Economy and Vice Chancellor of Germany Robert Habeck has rejected Ukraine's calls for additional support in the fight against russia due to concerns for Germany’s own security. "In everything we do, we are very careful not to take any ill-considered steps that could make Germany a target for russia," he said.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Ceyhun Bayramov, stated the need to end hostilities in Ukraine and to resolve the situation politically and diplomatically.

Military assistance to Ukraine. The US Department of Defense will provide a security package of up to $300 million to Ukraine, including laser-guided missiles, armored vehicles, thermal imagers, machine guns, and drones. The United States will also assist Ukraine in the event that russia uses chemical weapons.

A United States government official, quoted anonymously by the NYT, said the United States would act as a mediator to help in the transfer of tanks to Ukraine, in response to a request from President Zelenskyy. The official said that the transfer of tanks would begin soon, but declined to say how many tanks would be shipped or from which countries.

Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. During a visit to Italy and the Vatican, the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, and his wife Agata, brought with them Ukrainian children with cancer who had been evacuated to Poland.

According to the Embassy of Ukraine to the UK on April 2nd, 30 armored ambulances purchased by the embassy will be sent to Ukraine with funds raised from the UK.

 

7. A false report from the russian aggressors.

Conflict research journalists from the Intelligence Team (CIT) determined that the missile, which was allegedly launched from the territory of Ukraine and which fell near Belgorod, was actually fired from the northeast (i.e. from russia).

 

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia and the impact of international sanctions.

The oil and gas embargo has had a decisive impact on the state of the russian economy. Bloomberg News reported that if other countries do not impose a full oil and gas embargo, russia could earn nearly $321 billion from energy exports this year and end the year with a record account surplus of $240 billion.

However, the forecast may change in the case of an embargo on energy sales. russia's exports and oil production are currently falling and the International Energy Agency estimates that it could lose almost a quarter of its oil production this month.

Lithuania stopped importing gas from russia beginning in April, becoming the first EU country to take such a step.

The Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, said that his country would not agree to russia's demand to pay for natural gas in rubles.

New sanctions and restrictions are being imposed on russia, which is having a negative impact on the russian economy. The Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation, Mikhail Fedorov, has announced new sanctions by technology companies against russia. Their focus is on blocking important services and stopping the supply of goods. Here are some examples:

Logitech International SA has stopped supplying russia. This Swiss company is a manufacturer of computer peripherals and devices for gamers.

Recruit Group, a recruitment company, has restricted its Indeed system of vacancies in russia and removed all vacancy announcements from russian government and military organizations.

Automatic Data Processing has stopped sales in russia. It is an American company that provides software and services for human resource management.

Amadeus IT Group has stopped cooperating with Aeroflot. Now russia has been deprived of reservation systems for air tickets, hotels, cruise trips, and car rentals.

Emerson Electric has stopped investing in russia. This company offers technological solutions for industrial, commercial, and consumer markets.

Nintendo Company Limited has stopped supplying gaming consoles to russia. Also, the Nintendo eShop payment service has suspended the processing of payments in rubles.

An aircraft with alleged connections to russian oligarchs was not prohibited from flying in the UK.

The Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation has initiated the nationalization of nearly 1,400 railway cars from russia and Belarus.