13:08 04.12.2019

NBU forecasts decrease in inflation in 2019 to almost 6%

2 min read
NBU forecasts decrease in inflation in 2019 to almost 6%

Inflation in Ukraine in 2019 could drop to almost 6% compared to 9.8% in 2018 and 13.7% in 2017, Oleg Churiy, the deputy governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), has said.

"We have a strong disinflation trend. By the end of the year we expect inflation of about 6% – this is slightly higher than our corridor 5% plus or minus one percentage point. But in fact there is a chance that we will be within this range, because we see a very strong inflation reduction," he said at the Ukrainian Wealth Management Forum, organized by the Adam Smith Institute, in Kyiv on December 3-4.

"We believe that next year inflation will be within this range of 5% +/- one p.p.," the banker added.

He noted that, according to the baseline scenario, the refinancing rate could drop to 9% at the end of 2020 and to 8% by the end of 2021.

"That is, the rates will be reduced for those who make investment decisions. This means that you probably need to deal with longer instruments, thereby fixing profitability," he said.

As reported, the NBU all this year kept its inflation forecast for 2019 at 6.3% with its subsequent decline to 5% in 2020 and keeping it at that level in 2021.

Deputy Governor of the National Bank Dmytro Sologub at the end of November said that inflation in annual terms could drop to 6% already in November this year.

According to the State Statistics Service, in October inflation in annual terms slowed to 6.5% from 7.5% in September and 8.8% in August.

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