18:24 29.11.2018

ICU predicts slowdown of Ukrainian economy in 2019 to 2.3%, hryvnia rate weakening to UAH 30/$1

2 min read
ICU predicts slowdown of Ukrainian economy in 2019 to 2.3%, hryvnia rate weakening to UAH 30/$1

The growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2018 will accelerate to 3.5% from 2.5% last year, while next year it will slow down to 2.3% due to a decrease in the fiscal stimulation of the economy and the weakening of foreign markets, ICU Investment Group forecasts.

"In 2019, economic growth will slow down due to tight monetary and fiscal policies, as well as less attractive external conditions," Oleksandr Martynenko, the head of the ICU corporations' financial analysis department, told reporters in Kyiv.

According to him, the main driver of growth will remain consumer demand, which is driven by an increase in real income and consumer lending, as well as remittances by Ukrainians from abroad.

According to ICU's estimates, Ukraine's dollar-denominated GDP this year will reach $131 billion (from $111 billion last year), and $145 billion next year.

Martynenko predicted that the weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate, caused by the introduction of martial law, will be replaced by its stabilization already this week, as the factor of anxiety and fear will go away. However, under the influence of the pre-New Year increase in imports and a decrease in exports of agricultural products, as well as seasonal budget payments and inflation expectations, by the end of the year the hryvnia exchange rate will drop to UAH 29/$1.

"Our baseline scenario for 2019 is a soft devaluation of up to UAH 30 per $1 by the end of the year. Political instability and devaluation expectations carry major risks to our currency forecasts," the expert added.

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